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- - Is ammo in a bubble market? (http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=358553)

optimestic1 | 03-15-2009 03:01 PM
Is ammo in a bubble market? It was silver before at $21, now collapsed. The housing market was way up, now way down. Ammo is now way up (due to fears of bans, etc.). Will it go down too? It seems when everyone buys and it keeps going up, then suddenly the price drops. It just feels like "silver" all over again.

voodoo1951 | 03-15-2009 03:21 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? Quote:
Originally Posted by optimestic1 (Post 1626761) It was silver before at $21, now collapsed. The housing market was way up, now way down. Ammo is now way up (due to fears of bans, etc.). Will it go down too? It seems when everyone buys and it keeps going up, then suddenly the price drops. It just feels like "silver" all over again.
Sold ALL Silver this past year and stacking Lead/Brass now. I have a good feeling about ammo and I don't think it's a bubble. I'm hoping for $5 a Round in the next few years...GO LEAD - GO BRASS...!!!

sindgefallen | 03-15-2009 03:33 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? I have been thinking this myself and buying only reasonable prices. The kicker is that prices WOULD naturally adjust down eventually if not for certain variables such as gun control legislation and TAXES. Eventually I believe that you will be able to get as much ammo as you want but you will be paying much higher price based on only domestic supply and heavy tax increases. If there is an ammo importation ban/or import tariff increase, then prices will naturally go up and the other added taxes will be the kick in the balls on top. Don't forget the sales tax increase in CA.

ruprick | 03-15-2009 03:52 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? I do not think the run on ammo is going to let up.....there are tens of millions gun of owners....and not all this ammo is hoarded away....many are just getting into the guns and shooting. Even in depression Flint, MI....a brand new indoor range just opened....and you have to wait in line to get a lane.... In 25 years of shooting - A LOT - like several times a week....I have never seen so many big distributors out of reloading components....it started with primers 6 months ago...then it became bullets....now it is powder...next it will be brass.... I've never seen all of them out of powder....ever.....and this happend in the past 2 weeks. I just picked up another 25.000 small pistol primers and 50 lbs of powder....that was the very last to be had...... This is strange and spooky.....I think the demand is going to continue to far exceed the supply....... Buy everytime you see anything.....do not worry about the price....this will seem dirt cheap in the future. I've seen everything double in the past 10 years.

biochemist | 03-15-2009 03:52 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? Guns and ammo, people are buying them up but realistically who are they going to shoot? Nobody, when it comes down to it the only war Americans really want is trillion dollar army vs. 3rd world peasents on the other side of the planet. All war is local.

meatman | 03-15-2009 04:02 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? of course it is but when it bust will it be to late, I will pay extra now just in case it burst after the shtf. If I had a crystal ball and see it bursting before SHTF I would hold off. can't think of one thing that goes up this fast that has not busted. I am a big shooter and go to the range/gun shop every week for the last few months the gun shop has been packed and always had firearms in stock(hand,AR.AK and shotguns) and they are the cheapest around because of there gun range brings in a lot of their income. last month every week been fewer and fewer and this last Saturday it was a ghost town. now their firing range was still packed and had to wait for a lane to open. people are running out of money to buy and most that wanted to buy already have. just look how many on here have said they can't buy right now because of a lack of funds.

voodoo1951 | 03-15-2009 04:09 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? I'm buying all the 7.62x39 that I can find @ reasonable prices. That's like no more than $.50/Round OTD. The Domestic stuff like Win/Rem/Federal is scarce, but the supply of imported stuff for the AK-47 type rifle could (and has) dropped faster than Maddona's Underwear...

GoldWampum | 03-15-2009 04:41 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? Quote:
Originally Posted by optimestic1 (Post 1626761) It was silver before at $21, now collapsed. The housing market was way up, now way down. Ammo is now way up (due to fears of bans, etc.). Will it go down too? It seems when everyone buys and it keeps going up, then suddenly the price drops. It just feels like "silver" all over again.
Hope so... I'll buy more if it gets cheaper and more available. I buy it to have. As far as making a profit goes, if that happens someday... OK.

optimestic1 | 03-15-2009 05:07 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? Well, I think that after awhile (especially if Obama decides to do the right thing) people will have so much ammo and realize that storing it and keeping it from being stolen is becoming more of a headache, especially if they lose their job and now need funds more than ammo--the buying frenzy will stop and supplies on the store shelves will replenish. I mean, silver didn't go up forever, and neither did home prices. Include platinum in this discussion too, along with Rhodium. I used to always think more was better at one time too. But then comes the realization that "enough is enough" and then people tend to moderate.

TomD | 03-15-2009 05:21 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? I may be wrong about this but I've heard it often enough. I think the Feds place a limit of 10,000 primers and 20 pounds of powder to be stored in a home. I just did a google search to confirm and found references all over the place but nothing to nail it down. Amusingly enough, though several states have limits on loaded ammo, the Feds don't. So, just on the off chance that you had more than 10K primers before the sprinkler head malfunction ruined them, you may not want to publically broadcast the fact.

Satyr | 03-15-2009 05:51 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? When is the last time you saw a drop in ammo prices? I can only remember times when they held steady. I can't recall ever seeing average prices drop. Lots of first time gun buyers still have their first firearm on back order (ARs and AKs for instance). Once they finally get the firearm in their hands, they are going to want to shoot them and get familiar with them. Thus the demand isn't even close to leveling out. Mags are next. Once these new shooters obtain their ammmo (if they ever do) they are going to want more high cap. mags. Another thing to consider when comparing ammo to housing or even PMs is that ammo is physically consumed, and rather quickly. You can't actually consume a house. Once a house is built, it stays there until destroyed by either man or nature. As for comparing to PMs, how many gold and silver investors do you know of that actaully take physical posession? (GIM not included :P) Much of it exists only on paper which is assumed to represent stuff that, in theory exists but, has yet to be unearthed or is supposedly in a vault somewhere. More paper can be printed and sold to suppress the price. Ammo on paper in the form of back orders only increases the price and delays the delivery. Try loading your gun with a back order of ammunition and tell me how that works out for you. I can see an eventual equilibrium of supply and demand, but it won't happen for a while. Even then, I don't see prices droping much, if at all. Just my $.02

MOD1 | 03-15-2009 05:55 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? Bubble? Maybe, but I'm not betting on it. I've squandered FRNs on many more foolish things. Take care, Mod1

CrufflerJJ | 03-15-2009 07:57 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? Quote:
Originally Posted by TomD (Post 1627005) I may be wrong about this but I've heard it often enough. I think the Feds place a limit of 10,000 primers and 20 pounds of powder to be stored in a home. I just did a google search to confirm and found references all over the place but nothing to nail it down. Amusingly enough, though several states have limits on loaded ammo, the Feds don't. So, just on the off chance that you had more than 10K primers before the sprinkler head malfunction ruined them, you may not want to publically broadcast the fact.
There's no need to store your goodies "in" your home. There are always outbuildings. It is my understanding that there are plenty (OK, too many) regulations re: the quantity of powder (smokeless/black powder) that can be stored without using a "magazine". Do what make sense to you, realizing that you are certainly in violation of at least one regulation "for the children." I would NOT recommend stockpiling ammo as an "investment." If you're active in the shooting sports, store whatever reloading supplies you anticipate using in the remote future, plus a sh|tload of loaded ammo. As I said, do what makes sense to you. You will almost certainly be a Kriminal, but WTF.

bwelkk | 03-15-2009 08:27 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? Quote:
Originally Posted by meatman (Post 1626885) of course it is but when it bust will it be to late, I will pay extra now just in case it burst after the shtf.
That's just silly. Please explain why the price of ammo would go down after SHTF. Less demand for ammo? No, people will be buying everything they can get their hands on to defend themselves. More supply? No, without rule of law situations don't lend themselves to production, transportation and commerce in general. Unless by "after SHTF" you mean 20 years after, when the infrastructure is back and the people are no longer jumpy, but are you going to wait for then to stockpile some rounds?

CQC McDuck | 03-16-2009 12:12 AM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? Quote:
Originally Posted by bwelkk (Post 1627337) That's just silly. Please explain why the price of ammo would go down after SHTF. Less demand for ammo? No, people will be buying everything they can get their hands on to defend themselves. More supply? No, without rule of law situations don't lend themselves to production, transportation and commerce in general. Unless by "after SHTF" you mean 20 years after, when the infrastructure is back and the people are no longer jumpy, but are you going to wait for then to stockpile some rounds?
I'll take a crack at it. Black markets tend to flourish in post-SHTF situations. Just because ammo would/could be artificially higher in the US due to increased taxation and regulation, doesn't mean that it will be higher elsewhere. As with any prohibition, enterprising entrepreneurs would then step in to satisfy consumer demand.

bwelkk | 03-16-2009 01:21 AM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? Quote:
Originally Posted by CQC McDuck (Post 1627695) I'll take a crack at it. Black markets tend to flourish in post-SHTF situations. Just because ammo would/could be artificially higher in the US due to increased taxation and regulation, doesn't mean that it will be higher elsewhere. As with any prohibition, enterprising entrepreneurs would then step in to satisfy consumer demand.
Yeah, but the prices aren't THAT inflated right now, not enough to cover up the difference in efficiency between producing something in a wasteland vs. producing something in a factory with access to efficient transportation and cheap infrastructure...

extremist | 03-16-2009 04:46 AM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? These days you're paying the Obummer premium. Prices of metals and other components have generally crashed along with other commodities, yet ammo has skyrocketed. If Obummer decides to move on any of the current nonsensical proposals, like microprinting, registration and taxation, then prices will probably go up, up and away. On the other hand, if he shows any reluctance on this front, the bubble may pop. I haven't really seen Obummer himself emphasizing gun restrictions; the noise has come mainly from some of his rabid underlings and third-party groups.

The Argent Dragon | 03-16-2009 11:26 AM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? I have my own theories on ammo and don't see prices adjusting downward very much if any at all. 1999 - Clinton signed Exec Order to ban sales of US military ammo to the public......we're finally out of these supplies. U.N. is buying up surplus and dumping it to avoid sales to the US. Obama - Proposal is on the board to ban importation of all foreign military ammo.........I'm sure prices won't dip on this news either. So anyone else here think ammo is in a so-called 'bubble' ?

optimestic1 | 03-16-2009 01:15 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? [QUOTE=extremist;1627893] If Obummer decides to move on any of the current nonsensical proposals, like microprinting, registration and taxation, then prices will probably go up, up and away. QUOTE] This is exactly what makes me think prices may eventually drop. If the price of something goes up, people use less of it. That's what happened with gasoline when it went up, along with cars themselves. People started using bicycles more, and public transportation. Then gasoline came back down because people used it less. This may seem like heresy here, but ammunition if less used by people than gasoline, and would see a faster drop in demand when it rises too much in price. As for me, I just keep a small stock for defense purposes in case things come to that. Shooting for fun, well, just isn't as much fun anymore. When it becomes too expensive, the fun is taken out of it.

extremist | 03-16-2009 06:04 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? Quote:
Originally Posted by optimestic1 (Post 1628453) This may seem like heresy here, but ammunition if less used by people than gasoline, and would see a faster drop in demand when it rises too much in price.
Firebugs might consider this heretical, but I'd guess most normal people consider firearms to be the weapon of choice in the types of conflict expected soon to come. I suppose you could always make Molotov cocktails or other incendiaries from gasoline. Still, firearms are just far more practical and effective in general. The difference in price is not enough to justify using gasoline instead of ammunition.

Twisted Avatar | 03-16-2009 06:23 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? AMMO PRICES WILL NEVER BE "CHEAPER" THAN THEY ARE TODAY........THEY ALWAYS GO UP AND NEVER GO DOWN. Open any gun magazine from 1995......then 2000.......then 2005.......and finally 2009. It might be reallly hard but tell me if you see a familiar "pattern". T

TUMS | 03-17-2009 02:35 AM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? A lot depends on metal prices & gas prices. Hopefully the panic buying will be over soon. But with everyone posting all over the internet like it's the end of the world, I kind of doubt it. I was buying bags of shot for around $45 a few months ago. I can get them for $30 shipped now.

mick silver | 03-17-2009 02:38 AM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? i am not buying i have more then i need , i store it up for 2 years now , would like a little more 762.39 but i have 4 boxes full

mick silver | 03-17-2009 02:39 AM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? Quote:
Originally Posted by TUMS (Post 1629779) A lot depends on metal prices & gas prices. Hopefully the panic buying will be over soon. But with everyone posting all over the internet like it's the end of the world, I kind of doubt it. I was buying bags of shot for around $45 a few months ago. I can get them for $30 shipped now.
all the news guns on backorder well be hitting the market an those guys well be buying what they can fine ,

smullen | 03-17-2009 01:35 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? Quote:
Originally Posted by The Argent Dragon (Post 1628279) I have my own theories on ammo and don't see prices adjusting downward very much if any at all. 1999 - Clinton signed Exec Order to ban sales of US military ammo to the public......we're finally out of these supplies. U.N. is buying up surplus and dumping it to avoid sales to the US. Obama - Proposal is on the board to ban importation of all foreign military ammo.........I'm sure prices won't dip on this news either. So anyone else here think ammo is in a so-called 'bubble' ?
I agree... Plus, Mix this with the fact that there are way more people buying ammo than PMs... I think more people think your a wacko for buying PMs than think your a wacko for buying a case of ammo...

optimestic1 | 03-17-2009 02:14 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? Here's another example of why I think prices will have to go down: I went to a Gander Mountain store in our area that just recently opened. They had quite a bit of ammo of any caliber and style you could want. The problem was the prices. Blazer Brass 9mm for $15 (Walmart sells it at 8.96). Then I went to Scheels where the prices were somewhat lower, but they were out of just about everything. Walmart is out too. Now, if price wasn't a factor, and people would buy up everything in a panic, people would have been lining up at Gander Mtn to stock up, but they weren't. Also, at a gun show I attended last week, dealers had alot of ammo, but at terrible prices (.22s at $4 per box, Winchester white-box 9mm for $62 per 100 rounds!) :no_ma: No one was actually buying it though. The point is---when the price gets up too high, people will stop buying, and the price will drop. It happens with everything else, and it seems like we've already seen the top of what people are willing to pay, especially when they don't have much money anymore.

AOW | 03-17-2009 02:20 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? If ammo could not be manufactured starting tomorrow, people would gladly pay 10 times what they're paying now for a box. The current frenzy is being partially fueled by the idea that ammo will not be available at any price in the future. It's a bubble that will pop only if Obama passes no laws restricting firearms and ammo and goes a step further by affirming the rights granted by the 2nd. If he doesn't, no pop.

meatman | 03-17-2009 04:18 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? http://meatman.smugmug.com/photos/49...4_SnZYC-XL.jpg

The Argent Dragon | 03-17-2009 04:22 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? Quote:
Originally Posted by meatman (Post 1630744) http://meatman.smugmug.com/photos/49...4_SnZYC-XL.jpg
:s9: :36_1_34: :s9: ..........what a sight ! ......now that's some eye candy bud ! :bear_thumb:

meatman | 03-17-2009 04:27 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? Quote:
Originally Posted by AOW (Post 1630540) If ammo could not be manufactured starting tomorrow, people would gladly pay 10 times what they're paying now for a box..
10 times That would be great I have 100,000 rds but really only need about 25,000 if I could sell 75,000 rds for 10 times I would in a heart beat

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meatman | 03-17-2009 04:29 PM
Re: Is ammo in a bubble market? Quote:
Originally Posted by The Argent Dragon (Post 1630749) :s9: :36_1_34: :s9: ..........what a sight ! ......now that's some eye candy bud ! :bear_thumb:
Hard to find a pic that TA has not already posted

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