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electric-amish | 05-28-2007 09:28 AM
Chavez--Catalist for SHTF in US? Could Chavez's heavy handed tactics result in a revolution or ugly Bombing in Venezuela? This would result in seriously cut back Oil availability in the US. Extreme Oil high prices and transportation issues would result. So how likely is this scenario? Electric-Amish

Wyldwil | 05-28-2007 10:14 AM
Re: Chavez--Catalist for SHTF in US? Venezuela and Peak Oil: New Estimate of Oil Reserves Makes Venezuela the Grandest of Grand Prizes for the US by Stephen Lendman Global Research, May 23, 2006 I just finished reading an important new book the author's publisher sent me, which I'll shortly be reviewing for publication. The book is investigative journalist (and in his words "forensic economist") Greg Palast's latest foray into exposing the hidden from view crimes and wrongdoings of the Bush administration. I'm very familiar with Palast's important work and can only wish many others of his profession did the same sort of it he does - his job. Sadly most don't, but luckily we have some who do, and we should pay close heed to what they tell us. They're our window to the dangerous world around us, and the information they provide is our protection from it. Palast's book is almost encyclopedic in detail, but I only want to focus here on one part of it that relates to Venezuela. In it Palast provides information showing the country may be of far greater strategic importance to the US than we likely realized. It all relates to a somewhat arcane theory called Hubbert's peak that many readers may not know about or understand well if they do. Before reading Greg's book, I knew about it but didn't understand it as well as I do now. M. King Hubbert was a well-respected geologist of his time who on March 7, 1956 published a research paper explaining his notion of "peak oil," the amount of total reserves likely to be available, when production would peak, and when we would likely exhaust a finite supply. Ever since his report came out, it's been held up as gospel by many who follow the oil market. The essence of the Hubbert theory, whether we accept it or not, was that "peak oil" would be reached around this year. However, in fact, production rose every year since Hubbert's prediction and new discoveries of oil have so far kept pace. A New Interpretation of "Hubbert's Peak" M. King Hubbert may have been a fine geologist deserving of the his reputation. But today we know much more than Hubbert did in his time, and it's currently believed by some savvy analysts that we're nowhere near peaking or running out of oil. Palast sides with that view and concludes that we have enough oil left untapped to last many decades into the future. Why? Because there's oil and then there's oil - there's the easy to find and refine kind called "light sweet" like what's abundant in the Middle East, and there's also the harder to find, more expensive to refine so-called "heavy crude" and oil available from tar sands. When the latter two categories are added in, the amount of total oil available skyrockets to off-the-chart numbers. Palast makes a key point related to the price of crude. At $10 a barrel the supply is low because only the easy to extract and refine kind are economically feasible. But at $70 a barrel it's a whole new oil market. The heavy stuff and tar sands then become economical to extract and refine, and a new far higher finite supply is realized almost magically. In short, it's just a question of supply and demand and how the price of a commodity depends on how much of it consumers want. Too little demand and the price is low, but when it's high like now and rising, then so does the price. How This Relates to Venezuela From what we know for sure plus what we think we may know about Venezuelan "total" oil reserves, I suggest the reader first take a seat and buckle up. In previous articles, I reported Venezuela may have reserves of about 350 billion barrels if all their known heavy and light crude are counted. That total is far more than is now officially recognized by OPEC which means unofficially the country has greater reserves than Saudi Arabia by that number alone. But wait, there's more, a lot more. Palast reports a US Energy Department expert believes Venezuela holds 90% of the world's super-heavy tar oil reserves - an estimated total of 1,360,000,000,000 (1.36 trillion) barrels. Let me repeat that - 1.36 trillion barrels. That alone is more oil than Hubbert believed 50 years ago lay under the entire planet. Again, back to the key issue. Whatever the true highest estimate of reserves is from all varieties of oil, those reserves are only available at a price. If it ever gets too low again, which looks unlikely, those heavy reserves and tar sands oil will again go off the charts and be uncounted. However, with today's heavy demand and the likelihood of it continuing to grow in the future, the price of oil may continue to rise and all reserves from all sources may be needed and used to supply the market. So with a report like this coming from an apparent credible source (according to Palast) in the US Energy Department, it takes little imagination for VHeadline readers to understand more than ever that Venezuela is likely viewed by any US administration as the world's most important source of future oil supply. And to readers who understand US imperial intentions, it takes even less insight to realize the Bush administration intends to go all out to get its hands on it even if it takes a war to do it. The US goal isn't access to the oil. It's control of the supply and its price, what countries get it and how much and which ones don't, what companies profit from it, and overall how this ocean of oil can be used as a strategic resource and weapon. Beyond question, the stakes are enormous, and the battle lines are now drawn more clearly than ever. I've reported before on VHeadline that the US is now planning a fourth attempt to oust Hugo Chavez by whatever means it has in mind. I think the wheels of its plan are now in motion, but we won't know what will unfold until the fireworks begin. With the information now available and published here, I feel more certain than ever that US instigated serious trouble is heading toward Venezuela and maybe harsher than we might expect. Venezuela's likely total oil reserves are potentially so great that the country has to be the grandest of grand prizes for the US. It's a virtual certainty the US will do anything it takes to try to seize and control it. For those of us who respect the sovereign rights of all nations and the obligation their leaders have above all else to serve the needs of their people, we can only hope Hugo Chavez is prepared for what he knows is coming and will again succeed in deterring it. Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago and can be reached at lendmanstephen@sbcglobal.net . Also visit his blog site at www.sjlendman.blogspot.com Stephen Lendman is a frequent contributor to Global Research. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...articleId=2500

electric-amish | 05-28-2007 04:11 PM
Re: Chavez--Catalist for SHTF in US? The US is not the Villain in Venezuela as many think. Hugo the dictator is the one rolling tanks into the city to stop protesters of his closing down opposition television stations. The US is not in Lebanon fighting Hamas in refugee camps come to think of it Jews aren't involved either so the usual suspects for the Hate America and Anti-Semites are at a lose here. If the article posted and the Premise expressed so often is that Oil is the reason for these wars then,Why are we buying it at market rate? We could easily take it. We could easily force Iraq to sell at a reduced rate. We don't. Sorry access to Oil and Markets are what we would fight for as well as ideological reasons. Electric-Amish

DBcooper | 05-28-2007 05:41 PM
Re: Chavez--Catalist for SHTF in US? I agree with you 100% Amish.

Riskfactor | 05-28-2007 06:29 PM
Re: Chavez--Catalist for SHTF in US? Globovision has been criticized by many different sectors, in particular Chávez's government, where they accuse this channel of manipulating information, conspiracy, giving air time to the opposition (but not to the government), and racism, to name a few. Globovision, during the de facto government of Pedro Carmona, refused to show pro-Chávez demonstrations demanding the resignation of Carmona or the looting that occurred on April 12 and 13, 2002 (in contrast with the international media). This channel had major coverage of the take over of Plaza Francia in Altamira (a wealthy neighborhood in the eastern part of Caracas) by a group of military officers in rebellion. Over the next year, Globovisión would transmit, with great frequency, any news that occurred in this specific plaza. They also had major coverage of the general strike of 2002 and 2003, in which they supported the opposition in pressuring the resignation of Chávez. It is not strange (being a 24-hour news network), that Globovisión reports on these types of events, but many people believe that almost all of the news events that are covered by this channel are almost always negative towards Chavez. On the other hand, people say that the government is abusing freedom of speech and press, especially after periodic inspections of CONATEL (the telecommunications council of Venezuela) and the implementation of the controversial Social Responsibility in Radio and Television Law (Ley Resorte). The Ley Resorte forces channels (in this case Globovision) to mention what type the following program is and that it may contain elements of language, health, sex, and violence and whether it can be seen by children and/or adolescents (and whether the show is of national production). It also forces channels to have more programs aimed at children and adolescents. Like other media companies in Venezuela, Globovision has been the victim of violent assaults to their equipment and journalists at various pro-government marches and protests. The Washington Post, in an article covering the Chávez government's refusal to renew the license of RCTV, which was viewed by some as a blow to free speech in Venezuela, reported that "[f]ree expression is exercised in Venezuela. Another influential television station, Globovision, lambastes the Chávez government frequently ... "[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globovisi%C3%B3n so the question is -- who owns Globovision and why do they report one-sided news ala FOX?

Kahlil Gibran | 05-28-2007 06:38 PM
Re: Chavez--Catalist for SHTF in US? Quote:
Originally Posted by electric-amish (Post 620849) Could Chavez's heavy handed tactics result in a revolution or ugly Bombing in Venezuela? This would result in seriously cut back Oil availability in the US.
I thought Bush just voided our Constitution. The destabilization of Venezuela has CIA fingerprints all over it just like the destabilization of Lebanon has Mossad fingerprints all over it. :coo_mal: we will soon be nuking both for their own protection. Bring them Democracy.

Riskfactor | 05-28-2007 06:43 PM
Re: Chavez--Catalist for SHTF in US? here's an interesting article i found regarding Marcel Granier, who is the so-called owner of RCTV. the source seems to be an independent news blog that focuses on Latin American news... Quote:
In most parts of the world the private media is owned by a handful of very rich individuals who then have the privilege of deciding what everyone else gets to read and watch on Television. Venezuela is no exception to this. For example, the Venezuelan media magnate Gustavo Cisneros is a multi-billionaire who is one of the wealthiest people in the world. Another Venezuelan media magnate is Marcel Granier who is the owner of the soon to be defunct RCTV. It is more than a little ironic that he is only gaining international notoriety just as he is about to become a good deal less relevant inside Venezuela. In spite of his low international profile this man was smack dab in the middle of the turmoil that afflicted Venezuela from 2001 to 2004. From helping overthrow a government, to egging on a devastating oil “strike”, to running 24/7 anti-Chavez propaganda during elections this man has done it all. Now he is busy making the rounds trying to explain why, from his perspective, it is so unjust that RCTV is losing its broadcast license. Personally, I hope he keeps it up. Every time he opens his mouth to spout yet more lies it gives people outside Venezuela more of a chance to see what the anti-Chavez Venezuelan opposition is like and what Chavez has been dealing with for all these years. http://www.insurreccion.org/index.php?q=node/9745

Riskfactor | 05-28-2007 07:17 PM
Re: Chavez--Catalist for SHTF in US? yet another article regarding RCTV, Globovision and Chavez, in comparison to what has happened in The United States... Quote:
Consider this episode in the US. Two weeks before the 2004 presidential election, it was reported that the Sinclair Broadcast Group, which operates the largest number of local TV stations in the United States, planned to order its affiliates to replace prime-time programming with a documentary critical of John Kerry. Democrats were outraged. The Democratic National Committee filed a case with the FCC arguing that such "partisan propaganda" was inappropriate. And, yes, at least one powerful Democratic politician swore that if the documentary was aired, there would be no Sinclair Broadcast Group by the 2008 election. A Kerry spokesman said, "You don't expect your local TV station to be pushing a political agenda two weeks before an election. It's un-American." Couldn't it be un-Venezuelan too? (The political pressures above led Sinclair to cancel the anti-Kerry broadcast). http://counterpunch.org/mcelwee05252007.html

AMforPM | 05-31-2007 08:41 PM
Re: Chavez--Catalist for SHTF in US? Chavez said after the last US coup attempt on him that he had a dead man switch in the oil fields. He does not expect the US to respect borders or other nations, because the US record in Latin America is clear. Sad, but utterly undemocratic and just plain rapacious. How is it that decent people cannot even see the most basic moral principle: think how you would like it done to you when thinking about doing it to them? The golden rule. How would we like Venezuelan agents assisting a coup on Bush? And Foxhole news extolling the glorious overthrow and installation of a puppet regime. A news blackout of Americans protesting the coup on their government. etc. I detest Bush but other countries can butt out, thank you. I don't want the 'global police' 'helping' us though heaven knows we need help, but our government is our job. Other countries feel like that too. So if Chavez actually has a dead man switch and our bonehead in chief attacks yet another country that just happens to have a lot of oil (what a shock) and a president with much more popular support from his citizens than Bush has, then yes, things could get rough in the oil import department. I sure hope our lying psycho is out of office and his fantasy instructions from god are not liable to make my life hard very soon. Is he going to go on time? Will he attack any more countries before he goes? What goes around comes around. We have undefended borders with millions strolling in, a military stretched all over the planet and worn down too, debt to the stratosphere... I even wonder if the funding from overseas that pays the armed services would keep flowing in if shrub whacks many more countries. Especially if they have oil our creditors need too, and also purchase some of. It is time to stop poking sticks in hornets' nests and just buy the oil. That is a lot cheaper than occupying the ground over the oil. Besides, oil infrastructure is too fragile for a military solution. That is why there is a pipeline in Bolivia called 'the flute'. I have read there has been war damage in Iraq that will likely reduce oil production permanently. I'm not an oilfield engineer, but I have read that there are ways to damage fields that mess them up long term, and some of that has happened in Iraq. If we don't attack Iran or Venezuela, Chavez has said he intends to keep selling oil to the US. And he has done so. Even after a US sponsored coup attempt and millions sent to his tiny political opposition.

AMforPM | 05-31-2007 08:56 PM
Re: Chavez--Catalist for SHTF in US? On this part EA, we are trying to take it. The current battle is trying to force the Iraqi puppet government to give long term oil contracts to the US and UK firms selected back in Cheney's meeting -- you know the one with the map of the Iraq oil fields and who had the contract before (long before 9-11), all those pre war contracts are cancelled now. And we control the money generated from oil sales now and a lot is going missing. Billions. Quote:
We could easily force Iraq to sell at a reduced rate. We don't
The dollar has been oil backed since the gold backing was dropped. The high oil price props up the dollar. Countries have to hold more dollar reserves to buy oil sold for dollars. But that is crumbling due to our policies. The economic pressure on Iran has pushed them away from the dollar though we got Iraq back on the dollar for oil via invasion. But now Finland is jumping the dollar ship and Russia too. It is coming apart. But right now expensive oil still props the very sick FRN.

electric-amish | 05-31-2007 10:19 PM
Re: Chavez--Catalist for SHTF in US? Quote:
Originally Posted by AMforPM (Post 624490) On this part EA, we are trying to take it. The current battle is trying to force the Iraqi puppet government to give long term oil contracts to the US and UK firms selected back in Cheney's meeting .
- I am sorry but I can not agree. By the mere fact the word contract is used it means we are trading something for Oil--If we are trading we are not taking--It would be easier to pull back and protect the Rigs and pipelines than foster a Government. Quote:
Originally Posted by AMforPM (Post 624490) And we control the money generated from oil sales now and a lot is going missing. Billions..
How are we controlling the sale? What is the evidence the US Military is clipping funds---which I think most Americans would be OK with as we have spent a lot trying to get them off the ground.

AMforPM | 06-01-2007 11:19 AM
Re: Chavez--Catalist for SHTF in US? The government is bought by who pays to put them in and those corporations get the spoils our troops go bleed for. Sheesh EA. I do not think of you as naive. Condi has an oil tanker named after her. Shrub and Dick are also oil financed. And their owners are getting the spoils, with a bone to UK companies for joining up and sending some Brit blood to soak into the sand. By it being war there is more buisiness for Haliburton than their old business of refinery building (Bechtel, KBR) and they are getting that and the Bush Carlyle group lots of war profiteering too. Do you call those no bid Haliburton contracts just fine too? If so, there really isn't much point trying to converse with you on this. That is so naive that you will just have to notice the corruption at your own pace. A 'contract' with a gun to your head may seem honest to you, but if so there is sure something amiss in your notion of 'contract'. Like voluntary entry. These 'contracts' cut the profit that stays in Iraq, set it I think at a 70-30 split with the 70 to the companies that payed to get to tell the US armed services where to go, when before it was all owned by Iraq with much better terms when they contracted for engineering and sales services. And it paid for great public education, hospitals, etc. (Plus Saddams huge cut for himself. He stole like crazy but left a lot more for his citizens than these deals will.) So anytime you see Condi or shrub 'sternly warning' the Iraq puppet government about those contracts, which they just recessed to avoid approving last time I read a round of warnings... even the puppets are balking because after the US withdraws no one who agreed to this crap can live in Iraq any more. Someone will bump them off just like if some country invaded here, put in a government of collaborating Americans, had it contract out the water in all our rivers and all our coal and metals in the ground. When the army goes or is forced out by the citizens (which is what is happening in Iraq, the citizens are defeating an occupation) they would be dead and the people would try to take back their rivers and mines.

fasTTcar | 06-01-2007 11:28 AM
Re: Chavez--Catalist for SHTF in US? 1 Attachment(s) FWIW... Attachment 29172

AMforPM | 06-02-2007 02:13 AM
Re: Chavez--Catalist for SHTF in US? On your question, EA, here is one link http://www.notinourname.net/war/miss...ey-28jun04.htm I'll copy paste it. No one is certain how much has been stolen that I know of. But I thought you might prefer the word of a Christian organization. my bold. The neo-cons advertised this as a self financing war. But they took those billions and added hundreds of billions to the national debt too. The scale of greed is close to incomprehensible. === Emad Mekay InterPress Service June 28, 2004 Billions of dollars of Iraqi oil money have gone unaccounted for by the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), according to a new report released Monday. The British charity Christian Aid says that at least 20 billion dollars in oil revenues and other Iraqi funds intended to rebuild the country have disappeared from banks administered by the CPA. The group says that the U.S.-controlled coalition in Baghdad is handing over power to an Iraqi government without having properly accounted for what it has done with those 20 billion dollars of Iraq's own money. �Christian Aid believes this situation is in flagrant breach of the U.N. Security Council resolution that gave control of Iraq's oil revenues and other Iraqi funds to the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA),� the group said in a statement. Watchdog groups have complained before about the opaque nature of the CPA's handling of Iraqi money and the lack of transparency by U.S. and Iraqi officials. �For the entire year that the CPA has been in power in Iraq, it has been impossible to tell with any accuracy what the CPA has been doing with Iraq's money,� said Helen Collinson, head of policy at Christian Aid. U.N. Resolution 1483 of May 2003 says that Iraq's oil revenues should be paid into the Development Fund for Iraq (DFI), that the money be spent in the interests of the Iraqi people, and that it be independently audited. But the group says that it took until April 2004 to appoint an auditor -- leaving only a matter of weeks to go through the books. The group is concerned that the handover of power means that this money may never be tracked down and that the CPA is not going to be around to be held accountable. The group compared the lack of audits of Iraqi oil money to the abundant information on the 18.4 billion dollars of U.S. taxpayer funds being spent in Iraq. No less than four separate audits of the U.S. funds are underway. �Too many oil-rich countries go down the road of unaccountable government, riches for the few, and poverty for the many. Iraq can avoid this route, but only by ensuring transparency,� said Collinson. Some U.N. Security Council diplomats had previously criticised the CPA for cloaking the DFI -- authorised by the Security Council to safeguard the oil revenues and other money earmarked for reconstruction -- in secrecy. In its report, Christian Aid called on the Treasury Department, the U.S. agency responsible for pushing Iraq to privatise its economy and, before that, for confiscating billions of dollars in Iraqi assets worldwide, and the CPA to come out publicly with clear figures. Last October, the Treasury Department responded to allegations by the same group that 4 billion dollars in Iraqi money was missing by saying that the money was actually returned to Iraq after the war ended in April 2003. Even though Christian Aid says that since October the CPA has provided more information about what it is doing with Iraq's oil revenues, a lack of information still persists. �We still do not know exactly how Iraq's money has been earned, which companies have won the contracts that it has been spent on, or whether this spending was in the interests of the Iraqi people,� says the report. Christian Aid pointed to the difficulty of determining exactly what Iraq is earning from oil. Two different CPA documents give different figures for oil revenues through the end of May. One says Iraq earned 10 billion dollars, while another cites 11.5 billion dollars for the same period. Christian Aid says it attempted its own calculation of Iraq's oil revenues using publicly available figures and came up with 13 billion dollars. Groups critical of the lack of transparency in the CPA's spending have been particularly angry that the authority is using Iraqi money to pay for questionable contracts -- some awarded without a public tendering process -- with U.S. companies. Washington has restricted the most lucrative reconstruction contracts in Iraq to gigantic U.S. companies that appear set to rack up profitable contracts, fuelling accusations that the Bush administration is seeking to benefit a select few U.S. companies rather than find the best, and possibly the cheapest, options to help the Iraqi people rebuild.

electric-amish | 06-02-2007 03:08 AM
Re: Chavez--Catalist for SHTF in US? Quote:
Originally Posted by AMforPM (Post 625050) with a bone to UK companies for joining up and sending some Brit blood to soak into the sand.
--Totally understandable as the French and Germans were in bed with Sadam in the Oil for Food scam. Reward you freinds. If the French and Germans would have stood against Sadams repeated breaking of the UN Sanctions he may not have been so defient and we wouldn't be there now. (Europe has some responsibility) quote=AMforPM;625050]By it being war there is more buisiness for Haliburton than their old business of refinery building (Bechtel, KBR) and they are getting that and the Bush Carlyle group lots of war profiteering too.[/quote] This is simply not in evidence--The Carlyle group is a very low preforming division and has been on the sales block a number of times without buyers. No bid Military contracts are capped and earn less than 5% or there abouts for the Caryle Group. Quote:
Originally Posted by AMforPM (Post 625050) Do you call those no bid Haliburton contracts just fine too?
Adressed above. Quote:
Originally Posted by AMforPM (Post 625050) ...if so, there really isn't much point trying to converse with you on this.
Juries out on the hard headedness of the Electric-Amish.:banghead: Quote:
Originally Posted by AMforPM (Post 625050) A 'contract' with a gun to your head may seem honest to you, but if so there is sure something amiss in your notion of 'contract'. Like voluntary entry. These 'contracts' cut the profit that stays in Iraq, set it I think at a 70-30 split with the 70 to the companies that payed to get to tell the US armed services where to go, when before it was all owned by Iraq with much better terms when they contracted for engineering and sales services.
Don't know specifics of Hugos cortracts--Just don't Quote:
Originally Posted by AMforPM (Post 625050) And it paid for great public education, hospitals, etc. (Plus Saddams huge cut for himself. He stole like crazy but left a lot more for his citizens than these deals will.)
Juries out and I am leaning tword the strong man raiseing in Iraq that will remedy this if it happens. [/quote] Christian Aid --I am slightly suspect of and their motives are to jumbled into New World Order Politics. World Developemeny Movement. In 1964 the agency changed its name to Christian Aid. During the 1960s, the threat of hunger, even famine, made agricultural development a priority in the poorest regions of the world, especially Africa and Asia. As well as overseas aid, Christian Aid began to tell Church supporters and schools about the causes of poverty and helped establish the World Development Movement You are makeing to many points for Late night adressing. I'm not handeling all of them well. Spell check will not work on this borrowed terminal---------------Sorry All E-A

lessoil=+pm | 06-02-2007 03:37 AM
Re: Chavez--Catalist for SHTF in US? Palast's idea of adding in the tar sands re peak oil is mostly wrong. Heavy crude is one thing- actually oil that will flow; mining sand,baking out bitumen - then making this tar/coal substance into refined gas/diesel- well this is my point. Canada is having lots of environmental problems & cooking the sands is likely to require a nuclear plant as nat gas is the heat current source.Water is also a big pb. there[ canada]. big tires for the mining trucks were short there & worldwide a yr. or so ago. it is true that Venusula is a prise; in terms of heavy oil. nothing like iraq .now iran [though not as much oil]- that is in the middle of the prises; & might make Venusula much more important if shooting wars start over there. oil sands is usually the optimists term for the sands as an investment sell. interestingly the article quotes palast as using the more realistic term. we will use those sands . as long as we resemble this civilization; only at a much higher expense & low 'flow' [mining] rate.

AMforPM | 06-03-2007 02:43 AM
Re: Chavez--Catalist for SHTF in US? Quote:
Juries out on the hard headedness of the Electric-Amish.
:haha: EA you are always fun to discuss with even if we don't agree. Well, I took my best shot with data. I am amazed that what I see as the most flagrant corruption yet in my lifetime (gov has been corrupt my whole life, it is a matter of scale and openly flaunting breaking long lists of laws, not to mention the Constitution.) seems to be hunky dory to you. If you google iraq, billions then in the sequential word category "oil revenues" you get a lot of options of writing about the big 'oops where did that money go?'. I picked one that I hoped might not seem... um towel head or pinko to EA. LOL Whoosh! A swing and a miss. And you are right that a lot of charities are fronts and I have not researched that one any.

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