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Tn...Andy | 01-19-2007 06:33 AM
Starvation in a Land of Plenty Stolen from Survival Blog this morning. One possible way our complex society could descend into a much less complex machine, and what that might be like. http://www.survivalblog.com/ The Next Pandemic: Starvation in a Land of Plenty At the dawn of the 21st century, we are living in an amazing time of prosperity. Our health care is excellent, our grocery store shelves burgeon with a huge assortment of fresh foods, and our telecommunications systems are lightning fast. We have relatively cheap transportation, and our cities are linked by an elaborate and fairly well-maintained system of roads, rails, canals, seaports, and airports. For the first time in human history, the majority of the world's population will soon live in cities rather than in the countryside. But the downside to all this abundance is over-complexity, over-specialization, and lengthy supply chains. In the First World, less than 2% of the population is engaged in agriculture or fishing. Ponder that for a moment: Just 2% are feeding the other 98%. The food on our tables often comes from hundreds if not thousands of miles away. Our heating and lighting is provided by power sources typically hundreds of miles away. For many people even their tap water travels hundreds of miles. Our factories produce sophisticated cars and electronics that have subcomponents that are sourced on three continents. It is as if we are all cogs in an enormous invisible machine, each playing our part to make sure that the average Americans comes home from work each day to find: his refrigerator well-stocked with food, his lights reliably come on, his telephone works, his tap gushes pure water, his toilet flushes, his paycheck is automatically deposited to his bank, his garbage is collected, his house is a comfortable 70 degrees, his TV entertainment up and running 24/7, and his DSL connection. We've built our fellow Americans a very big machine that up until now has worked remarkably well, with just a few glitches. But that may not always be the case. As Napoleon found the hard way, long chains of supply and communication are fragile and vulnerable. Someday the big machine may grind to a halt. Let me describe one set of circumstances that could cause that to happen: Imagine an influenza pandemic, spread by causal contact, that is so virulent that it kills more than half of the people that are infected. And imagine the advance of the disease so rapid that it makes its way around the globe in less than a week. (Isn't modern jet air travel grand?) Consider that we have global news media that is so rabid for "hot" news that they can't resist showing pictures of men in respirators, rubber gloves, and Tyvek coveralls wheeling gurneys out of houses, laden with body bags. They report countless stories like: "Suzie Smith brought the flu bug home from school. Everyone in her family died." and, "Mr. Jones brought the flu home from work. Everyone in his family died." Over and over. Repeated so many times that the majority of citizens decides "I'm not going to go to work tomorrow, or the day after, or in fact until after 'things get better.'" But by not going to work, some important cogs will be missing from the Big Machine. Orders won't get processed at the Wal-Mart distribution center. The 18 Wheel trucks won't make deliveries to groceries stores. Gas stations will run out of fuel. Policemen and firemen won't show up at work. Telephone technicians will call in sick. Power lines will get knocked down in wind storms, and there will be nobody to repair them. Crops will rot in the fields because there will be nobody to pick them, or transport them, or magically bake them into Pop-Tarts, or stock them on your supermarket shelf. The Big Machine will be broken. Does this sound scary? Sure it does, and it should. The implications are huge. But it gets worse: The average suburbanite only has about a week's worth of food in their pantry. What will they do when it is gone, and there is no reasonably immediate prospect of re-supply? Supermarket shelves will be stripped bare. Faced with the alternative of staying home and starving or going out to meet Mr. Influenza, millions of growling stomachs will force Joe American to go and "forage." The first likely targets will be restaurants, stores, and food distribution warehouses. Not a few "foragers" will soon transition to full scale looting, taking the little that their neighbors have left. Next, they'll move on to farms that are in close proximity to cities. A few looters will form gangs that will be highly mobile and well-armed, ranging deeper and deeper into farmlands, running their vehicles on siphoned or stolen-at-gunpoint gasoline. Eventually their luck will run out and they will all die of the flu, or of instantaneous lead poisoning. But before the looters are all dead they will do a tremendous amount of damage. Be ready to confront them. Your life, and the lives of your loved ones will count on it. You'll need to be able to put a lot of lead down range--at least enough to convince Mr. Looter that he needs to go find some other farm or ranch to loot. In recent months, the press has shifted its attention, ignoring the continuing threat of Asian Avian Flu mutating into a strain that can be easily transmitted between humans. If and when that mutation occurs--and the epidemiologists tell us that it is more a question of "when" rather than "if"--then things could turn very, very ugly all over the globe. Be prepared. To start getting ready, you should first read the background article on pandemic preparation that I wrote last year, titled "Protecting Your Family From an Influenza Pandemic." Next, think through all of the implications of disruption of key portions of our modern technological infrastructure. Plan accordingly. You need to be able to provide water, food, heating, and lighting for your family. Ditto for law enforcement, since odds are that a pandemic will be YOYO ("You're on your own!") time. Get your beans, bullets, and band-aids squared away, pronto. Most importantly, be prepared to hunker down in "self quarantine" for three or four months, with no outside contact. That will take a lot of logistics, as well as plenty of cash on hand to pay your bills in the absence of a continuing income stream. One closing thought: There are only about 15 large food storage dealers in the country, and even fewer firms that sell non-hybrid ("heirloom") gardening seed. How long do you think that their inventories will last, once there is news that there is an easily transmissible human-to-human flu strain of flu, anywhere on the planet? Prices are currently low and inventories are plentiful. It is better to be a year too early than a day too late.

GB1980 | 01-19-2007 08:39 AM
Re: Starvation in a Land of Plenty That's why we're doing what we're doing. Being or getting prepared for WTSHTF!!

Maddie | 01-19-2007 08:43 AM
Re: Starvation in a Land of Plenty Quote:
Originally Posted by Tn...Andy (Post 479611) One closing thought: There are only about 15 large food storage dealers in the country, and even fewer firms that sell non-hybrid ("heirloom") gardening seed. How long do you think that their inventories will last, once there is news that there is an easily transmissible human-to-human flu strain of flu, anywhere on the planet? Prices are currently low and inventories are plentiful. It is better to be a year too early than a day too late.
I'm always surprised at the number of people who don't understand the importance of non-hydrid seed. I've heard so many people say that if anything bad ever happens, they'll just plant a garden. Upon more careful questioning, they admit that their gardens will be too tiny, they haven't enough food to survive even until the first bean sprouts (but don't worry, they'll learn how to snare game and gather berries...lol!), and they don't realize that the seeds sold down at the garden center are hybrids that won't produce viable seed for next year's garden. Even the ones that have heard of hybrid seeds are clueless about how to plant them so that they don't cross-pollinate with wild plants or other garden plants and hybridize themselves.

momopanda | 01-19-2007 09:16 AM
Re: Starvation in a Land of Plenty Andy , were a situation like this to occur , what do you think of, among other things in your stash, a few cases of colloidal Silver. Obviously it would not protect you from the zombies , but would protect you from the flu (if you believe that it can , as I do). You could use the excess as a bartering instrument - I imagine it would be quite valuable in the scenario. Even if many people don't know of its worth as an antimicrobial , you could simply print out a bunch of copies from websites talking about its potential as a flu cure/deterent, and keep them in the case of CS to let people read first. I imagine people would be very scared and be quite interested in any potential aid, and willing to part with much in return for it. Just thinking out loud I guess...

volzka | 01-19-2007 09:43 AM
Re: Starvation in a Land of Plenty Hey- This post gives me cause to post a thesis: That the terms developed nations, developing nations, and third world nations are total bullshit. There are quite a number of "third world" people living next door to me (amish). Many, repeat, many of the rest of us would also be third world if we had to cough up what it took to pay off our debt instead of rolling it over. But that's just me being me. Volzka

RiverRat | 01-19-2007 09:52 AM
Re: Starvation in a Land of Plenty :cool2: Andy....sounds like Captain Trips in THE STAND by Stephen King. If you haven't read it...you need to. In THE STAND there was food everywhere,mainly because the super flu killed 95% of the US population. I agree....a disruption of food distribution could lead to massive shortages and urban warfare in about a week. At least this guy isn't sugar coating his version what we have been preaching to everybody here at GIM. His scenario is valid IMHO...nothing less than massive full scale urban warfare in about two weeks tops after the system breaks down. No way present law enforcement or the military could help you...if you don't have food or weapons to hold off the looters and gangs you are a statistic in the final body count. No people,this isn't a doomsday scenario...this will be what actually happens so don't kid yourself...get prepared for the worst. If it doesn't break down anytime soon at least you will be prepared one hundred times better than the average J6P who thinks the benevolent Empire will save his bacon. Good post Andy...thanks. :beer: :beer:

Kahlil Gibran | 01-19-2007 11:32 AM
Re: Starvation in a Land of Plenty 1 Attachment(s) Attachment 22975 Amish are all set except for defense. :smokin:

Tn...Andy | 01-19-2007 03:09 PM
Re: Starvation in a Land of Plenty Quote:
Originally Posted by Maddie (Post 479675) I'm always surprised at the number of people who don't understand the importance of non-hydrid seed. I've heard so many people say that if anything bad ever happens, they'll just plant a garden. Upon more careful questioning, they admit that their gardens will be too tiny, they haven't enough food to survive even until the first bean sprouts (but don't worry, they'll learn how to snare game and gather berries...lol!), and they don't realize that the seeds sold down at the garden center are hybrids that won't produce viable seed for next year's garden. Even the ones that have heard of hybrid seeds are clueless about how to plant them so that they don't cross-pollinate with wild plants or other garden plants and hybridize themselves.
Yep.....amen to that Maddie. You won't find one person in a thousand that has any clue how much garden and work it takes to come close to supplying a family with everything they would eat from year to year.....especially if you throw in some raised to feed animals for a protein source ( like chickens, pig, etc ). Most people if they even have an garden experience at all ( which is becoming more and more rare ) have only set out a few tomato plants and such.....most of which were starter plants they bought at a gardening place. We're several generations now into a culture that has no clue about growing ANYTHING.

Abouthadit | 01-19-2007 03:36 PM
Re: Starvation in a Land of Plenty Quote:
Originally Posted by Tn...Andy (Post 480102) Yep.....amen to that Maddie. We're several generations now into a culture that has no clue about growing ANYTHING.
Yep, part of THE PLAN. Grow em up dependent on others and Uncle Sugar and you've got em by the nads. :Sorry:

mtnman | 01-20-2007 09:32 AM
Re: Starvation in a Land of Plenty Quote:
Originally Posted by Kahlil Gibran (Post 479872) Attachment 22975 Amish are all set except for defense. :smokin:
Don't bet on it, The Amish a very well armed. They just don't talk about it.

Unclad Lad | 01-23-2007 12:09 AM
Re: Starvation in a Land of Plenty Quote:
Amish are all set except for defense.
and: Quote:
Don't bet on it, The Amish a very well armed. They just don't talk about it.
The Amish have guns-for hunting and pest control. They've more than shown their pacifism and willingness to die for it. But most of them won't need to defend themselves-not if their neighbors have half a brain-because the Amish will be the only people who will know how to do anything. After it all collapses, the Amish will see a flood of converts, and those eager to indenture themselves in exchange for the opportunity to learn the necessary skills. A little fresh blood wouldn't hurt the Amish either-a few centuries of inbreeding is taking a toll. And believe me, the Amish already have their wise neighbors. You may see an "Amish village", but surrounding them are the Mennonites, who hold most of the same views but don't eschew most modern technology. And around them are other folk who, though not sharing the Amish beliefs, hold them in high regard, and who have no pacifistic beliefs holding them back when being threatened by "outsiders". It will be interesting.

Kahlil Gibran | 01-23-2007 12:12 AM
Re: Starvation in a Land of Plenty Quote:
Originally Posted by Unclad Lad (Post 483346) The Amish have guns-for hunting and pest control. They've more than shown their pacifism and willingness to die for it.
WTSHTF their turn-the-other-cheek mode will be unfortunate. I hope somebody will protect them. :beer:

Halophyte | 01-23-2007 12:26 AM
Re: Starvation in a Land of Plenty Chickens, rabbits, a garden and a shotgun (make mine a double).

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