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squexx | 06-06-2008 09:31 AM
Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century This is the summary of a 30 page book by Dmitry Orlov comparing the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990's vs the coming American collapse. In a nutshell, the Russians fared better than the USA will in general. But there are positives in the USA that didn't exist in Russia. Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century Dmitry Orlov 2005 The U.S. is much more like the Balkans than like Russia, which is inhabited by a fairly homogeneous Caucasian/Asian population. The U.S. is very much segregated, usually by race, often by ethnicity, and always by income level. During prosperous times, it is kept relatively calm by keeping a percentage of people in jail that has set an all-time world record. During less prosperous times, it is at a big risk of political explosion. Multi-ethnic societies are fragile and unstable; when they fall apart, or explode, everyone loses. Collapse in the U.S. In the U.S., there appear to be few ways to make the collapse scenario work out smoothly for oneself and one's family. The whole place seems too far gone in a particular, unsustainable direction. It is a real creative challenge, and we should be giving it a lot of serious thought. Suppose you live in a big city, in an apartment or a condo. You depend on municipal services for survival. A week without electricity, or heat, or water, or gas, or garbage removal spells extreme discomfort. Any two of these is a calamity. Any three is a disaster. Food comes from the supermarket, with help from the cash machine or the credit card slot at the checkout station. Clean clothes come from the Laundromat, which requires electricity, water, and natural gas. Once all the businesses have shut down and your apartment is cold, dark, smells like garbage (because it isn't being collected) and like excrement (because the toilet doesn't flush), perhaps it is time to go camping and explore the great outdoors. So let's consider the countryside. Suppose that you own a homestead and have a tiny Mortgage that shrivels to next to nothing after a good bout of inflation, or that you own it free and clear. If it's in a developed suburban subdivision, there will still be problems with taxes, code enforcement, strangers from outer sp ace living next door, and other boondoggles, which could get worse as conditions deteriorate. Distressed municipalities may at first attempt jack up rates to cover their costs instead of simply closing up shop. In a misguided effort to save property values, they may also attempt to enforce codes against such necessities as compost heaps, outhouses, chicken coops, and crops planted on your front lawn. Keep in mind, also, that the pesticides and herbicides lavished on lawns and golf courses leave toxic residues. Perhaps the best thing to do with suburbia is to abandon it altogether. A small farm offers somewhat better possibilities for farming, but most farms in the U.S. are mortgaged to the hilt, and most land that has been under intensive cultivation has been mercilessly bombarded with chemical fertilizers, herbicides and insecticides, making it an unhealthy place, inhabited by men with tiny sperm counts. Small farms tend to be lonely places, and many, without access to diesel or gasoline, would become dangerously remote. You will need neighbors to barter with, to help you, and to keep you company. Even a small farm is p probably overkill in terms of the amount of farmland available, because without the ability to get crops to market, or a functioning cash economy to sell them in, there is no reason to grow a large surplus of food. Tens of acres are a waste when all you need is a few thousand square feet? Many Russian families managed to survive with the help of a standard garden plot of one sotka, which is 100 square meters, or, if you prefer, 0.024710538 acres, or 1076.391 square feet. What is needed, of course, is a small town or a village: a relatively small, relatively dense settlement, with about an acre of farmland for every 30 or so people, and with zoning regulations designed for fair use and sustainability, not opportunities for capital investment, growth, property values, or other sorts of "development". Further, it would have to be a place where people know each other and are willing to help each other – a real community. There may still be a few hundred communities like that tucked away here and there in the poorer counties in the United States, but there are not enough of them, and most of them are too poor to absorb a significant population of economic migrants. Investment Advice Often when people hear about the possibility of economic collapse, they wonder: "Let's suppose that the U.S. economy is going to collapse soon. Why is this even worth thinking? about, if there is nothing I can do about it?" Well, I am not a professional investment adviser, so I risk nothing by making some suggestions for how one can collapse-proof one's investment portfolio. The nuclear scare gave rise to the archetype of the American Survivalist, holed up in the hills, with a bomb shelter, a fantastic number of tins of spam, and an assortment of guns and plentiful ammunition with which to fight off neighbors from further downhill, or perhaps just to shoot beer-cans when the neighbors come over for beer and spamwiches. And, of course, an American flag. This sort of survivalism is about as good as burying yourself alive, I suppose. The idea of stockpiling is not altogether bad, though. Stockpiling food is, of course, a rotten idea, literally. But certain manufactured items are certainly worth considering. Suppose you have a retirement account, or some mutual funds. And suppose you feel reasonably certain that by the time you are scheduled to retire it won't be enough to buy a cup of coffee. And suppose you realize that you can currently buy a lot of good stuff that has a long shelf life and will be needed, and valuable, far into the future. And suppose, further, that you have a small amount of storage space: a few hundred square feet. Now, what are you going to do? Sit by and watch your savings evaporate? Or take the tax hit and invest in things that are not composed of vapor? Once the cash machines are out of cash, the stock ticker stops ticking, and the retail chain breaks down, people will still have basic needs. There will be flea markets and private barter arrangements to serve these needs, using whatever local token of exchange is available; bundles of $100 bills, bits of gold chain, packs of cigarettes, or what have you. It's not a bad idea to own a few of everything you will need, but you should invest in things y you will be able to trade for things y you will need. Think of consumer necessities that require high technology and have a long shelf life. Here are some suggestions to get you started: drugs (over-the-counter and prescription); razor blades; condoms. Rechargeable batteries (and solar chargers) are sure to become a prized item (Ni-MH are the less toxic ones). Toiletries, such as good soap, will be uxury items. Fill some shipping containers, nitrogen-pack them so that nothing rusts or rots, and store them somewhere. After the Soviet collapse, there swiftly appeared a category of itinerant merchants who provided people with access to imported products. To procure their wares, these people had to travel abroad, to Poland, to China, to Turkey, on trains, carrying goods back and forth in their baggage. They would exchange a suitcase of Russian-made watches for a suitcase of other, more useful consumer products, such as shampoo or razor blades. They would have to grease the palms of officials along their route, and were often robbed. There was a period of time when these people, called "chelnoki," which is Russian for "shuttles," were the only source of consumer products. The products were often factory rejects, damaged, or past their sell-by date, but this did not make them any less valuable. Based on their example, it is p possible to predict which items will be in high demand, and to stockpile these items ahead of time, as a hedge against economic collapse. Note that chelnoki had intact economies to trade with, accessible by train - while this is not guaranteed to be the case in the U.S. A stockpile of this sort, in a walkable, socially stable place, where you know everybody, where you have some close friends and some family, where you own your shelter and some land free and clear, and where you can grow most of your own food, and barter for the rest, should enable you to survive economic collapse without too much trouble. And, who knows, maybe you will even find happiness there. Conclusion Although the basic and obvious conclusion is that the United States is worse prepared for economic collapse than Russia was, and will have a harder time than Russia had, there are some cultural facets to the United States that are not entirely unhelpful. To close on an optimistic note, I will mention three of these. Firstly, and perhaps most surprisingly, Americans make better Communists than Russians ever did, or cared to try. They excel at communal living, with plenty of good, stable roommate situations, which compensate for their weak, alienated, or nonexistent families. These roommate situations can be used as a template, and scaled up to village-sized self organized communities. Big households that pool their resources make a lot more sense in an unstable, resource-scarce environment than the individualistic approach. Without a functioning economy, a household that consists of a single individual or a nuclear family ceases to be viable, and people are forced to live in ever larger households, from roommate situations to taking lodgers to doubling up to forming villages. Where any Russian would cringe at such an idea, because it stirs the still fresh memories of the failed Soviet experiment at collectivization and forced communal living, many Americans are adept at making fast friends and getting along, and generally seem to posses an untapped reserve of gregariousness, community spirit, and civic-minded idealism. Secondly, there is a layer of basic decency and niceness to at least some parts of American society, which has been all but destroyed in Russia over the course of Soviet history. There is an altruistic impulse to help strangers, and pride in being helpful to others. In many ways, Americans are culturally homogeneous, and the biggest interpersonal barrier between them is the fear and alienation fostered by their racially and economically segregated living conditions. Lastly, hidden behind the tawdry veneer of patriotic bumper stickers and flags, there is an undercurrent of quiet national pride, which, if engaged, can produce high morale and results. Americans are not y et willing to simply succumb to circumstance. Because many of them lack a good understanding of their national predicament, their efforts to mitigate it may turn out to be in vain, but they are virtually guaranteed to make a valiant effort, for "this is, after all, America."

nunaem | 06-06-2008 12:55 PM
Re: Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century Quote:
The nuclear scare gave rise to the archetype of the American Survivalist, holed up in the hills, with a bomb shelter, a fantastic number of tins of spam, and an assortment of guns and plentiful ammunition with which to fight off neighbors from further downhill, or perhaps just to shoot beer-cans when the neighbors come over for beer and spamwiches. And, of course, an American flag. This sort of survivalism is about as good as burying yourself alive, I suppose. The idea of stockpiling is not altogether bad, though. Stockpiling food is, of course, a rotten idea, literally.
This reminds me of that "Why the Survivalists Have Got It Wrong." article. Are european 'survivalist' authors really this retarted or are they purposefully trying to get their readers killed? Or is this a symptom of the collectivist mental disorder that they believe they can transition from relying on supermarkets for food to having a self-sustaining communal permaculture----without any kind of securities, in the forms of food or guns----all through good-will and nice thoughts? Methinks these collectivist authors will have some quality fasting time to rethink their naive ideas while waiting for their crops to grow, then they will witness how selfless and generous their starving comrades really are. Something about starving collectivists just makes me feel giddy. :D

Mumwaldee | 06-06-2008 01:20 PM
Re: Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century I think my fave was the part about waiting for your neighbors to starve so you could take THEIR tools and preps. Haha, gaunt faced zombies sitting out under your trees...hunched over like Snoopy pretending to be a buzzard...staring at your house waiting for you to keel over as you sit on the porch and munch on a spam sandwich with your rifle across your lap. After that...maybe a glass of clean water and a walk through the garden to make sure no zombies are nibbling on your sprouts. http://i261.photobucket.com/albums/i...o/vulture1.gif

Twisted Avatar | 06-13-2008 04:22 PM
Re: Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century good article. T

shades2 | 06-15-2008 01:12 AM
Re: Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century Quote:
Originally Posted by Mumwaldee (Post 1134711) I think my fave was the part about waiting for your neighbors to starve so you could take THEIR tools and preps. Haha, gaunt faced zombies sitting out under your trees...hunched over like Snoopy pretending to be a buzzard...staring at your house waiting for you to keel over as you sit on the porch and munch on a spam sandwich with your rifle across your lap. After that...maybe a glass of clean water and a walk through the garden to make sure no zombies are nibbling on your sprouts.
Maybe they don't regard themselves as a potential food source? :D

neotardcabal | 06-15-2008 01:21 AM
Re: Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century The solution is to be industrious and produce. "The economy" is in your own hands.....not the hands of the government.

Avalon | 09-20-2008 05:33 AM
Re: Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century wanted to bump this up

Canadian-guerilla | 09-20-2008 06:04 AM
Re: Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century i know this article has been posted before, but it's worth another post/read Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US http://www.energybulletin.net/node/23259

squexx | 09-21-2008 12:17 AM
Re: Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century It's amazing how totally unprepared most Americans are. Memphis just had a gas shortage because rumors spread that gas was running out. Everyone panicked and bought gas and it did run out. Think of what happens in a few months when the crash does happen and there are REAL shortages. You will see food and race riots in more than one city!

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