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ConfusedUs | 09-25-2008 02:06 AM
What Are the Economic Collapse Indicators to Watch For? What Are the Economic Collapse Indicators to Watch For? http://survivalblog.com/ Jim, Some of us may be stuck within the city limits until 'the last possible moment' before an event such as WTSHTF. Can you suggest a day-to-day procedure or strategy to now follow for monitoring specific and reliable news outlets or information sources in determining when our G.O.O.D. action plan should be initiated? . Obviously, many people such as myself, have all the 'other' recommended Rawles preparations in place but are still at a disadvantage from those that were able to set up their retreat ahead of time and to have evacuated from a city. It's the best that I can do, at this point. Additionally, the economic news events these days are so wild and crazy that it's hard to discern what main event, 'red flag' or 'markers' should precipitate an exit out of the city without further doubt or hesitation. Brushing up on 'common sense and logic' doesn't hurt here, but it's the expectation that some specific chain-of-events will take place that categorically shout now that I'm speaking of. Can you give us your personal view on what these catalyst events could be? Thank you, - Ken R. (A 10 Cent Challenge subscriber) JWR Replies: There are far too many variables in the current situation for me to be able point to just one key "trigger" or "gating" indicator. Be ready, but don't panic. I must caution SurvivalBlog readers: "Don't give up your day job." Unless you are retired, or have a stable and substantial secondary cash flow from investments or a home-based business, it would be highly imprudent to quit your job (or start burning vacation hours) and move to your retreat. My advice: Watch the news carefully and be ready to leave on short notice. As I've previously mentioned, it is very important to pre-position the vast majority of your key logistics at your retreat, under the watchful eye of a caretaker or a trusted neighbor. When the time comes, you may only have the opportunity to make one trip to your retreat before highways become impassable. Here are some important indicators to watch for, in my humble estimation. (Witnessing just one of these won't be surely indicative, but if we see several of these...) : A sharp spike in the Federal Funds Rate News of a failed Treasury auction, or news that Treasury rates have spiked Overt talk of a US default by Asian or European bankers Multiple (8+) simultaneous US bank failures on one Friday Any large Northern Rock style bank runs in the US (with customers lined up on the streets) A stock market drop of more than 1,200 points in one day A large and sudden spike in inflation Any suspension of US stock trading Draconian new stock trading limits (for example any new "circuit breaker" rules, followed by news that the trading was halted because of the limits) New restrictions on either precious metals purchasing reporting requirements New limits on moving funds outside the US Any large derivatives trading collapses.(Because of disappearing counterparties or illiquidity.) News that hundreds of hedge funds are suspending redemptions News that many Money Market funds are dropping below $1.00 Net Asset Value (NAV) The US Dollar Index (USDI) dropping below 68 for more than one full week of trading. Any sudden large interest rate moves by the FOMC. (Up or down.) Gold spiking past $1,500 per ounce News that any major western power is no longer accepting US Dollars in payment for key commodities News that any major trading partners are no longer rolling over the majority of their US Treasury paper A closed session of the full congress that lasts a full day or longer. The resignation of either the Treasury Secretary or the Federal Reserve Chairman. Mel Gibson moves to Fiji ;-)

Silver Shield | 09-25-2008 05:59 AM
Re: What Are the Economic Collapse Indicators to Watch For? At this pace this could all happen in the next month...

Canadian-guerilla | 09-25-2008 06:09 AM
Re: What Are the Economic Collapse Indicators to Watch For? Quote:
Originally Posted by ConfusedUs (Post 1311754) Here are some important indicators to watch for, in my humble estimation. (Witnessing just one of these won't be surely indicative, but if we see several of these...) : A sharp spike in the Federal Funds Rate News of a failed Treasury auction, or news that Treasury rates have spiked Overt talk of a US default by Asian or European bankers Multiple (8+) simultaneous US bank failures on one Friday Any large Northern Rock style bank runs in the US (with customers lined up on the streets) A stock market drop of more than 1,200 points in one day A large and sudden spike in inflation Any suspension of US stock trading Draconian new stock trading limits (for example any new "circuit breaker" rules, followed by news that the trading was halted because of the limits) New restrictions on either precious metals purchasing reporting requirements New limits on moving funds outside the US Any large derivatives trading collapses.(Because of disappearing counterparties or illiquidity.) News that hundreds of hedge funds are suspending redemptions News that many Money Market funds are dropping below $1.00 Net Asset Value (NAV) The US Dollar Index (USDI) dropping below 68 for more than one full week of trading. Any sudden large interest rate moves by the FOMC. (Up or down.) Gold spiking past $1,500 per ounce News that any major western power is no longer accepting US Dollars in payment for key commodities News that any major trading partners are no longer rolling over the majority of their US Treasury paper A closed session of the full congress that lasts a full day or longer. The resignation of either the Treasury Secretary or the Federal Reserve Chairman. Mel Gibson moves to Fiji ;-)
i'll print this list out and put it where i can see it daily Awareness is Everything - TA

Dutch Dog | 09-25-2008 07:55 AM
Re: What Are the Economic Collapse Indicators to Watch For? Quote:
Originally Posted by Silver Shield (Post 1311840) At this pace this could all happen in the next month...
No kidding...Things are moving faster than I ever expected. Course Name that Bank Closing Friday is tomorrow:D

BellevueBully | 09-25-2008 08:36 AM
Re: What Are the Economic Collapse Indicators to Watch For? Quote:
Originally Posted by ConfusedUs (Post 1311754) What Are the Economic Collapse Indicators to Watch For? Overt talk of a US default by Asian or European bankers
As I understand (will post a source later) the US is incapable of going into default. Their dollar is a promisary note only and a garauntee of payment in dollars only. As long as there is a printing press, no country can say they have defaulted on obligations.

brosil | 09-25-2008 09:33 AM
Re: What Are the Economic Collapse Indicators to Watch For? Look for fuel to be rationed to farmers and transportation or at least special lower prices for them.

Saul Mine | 09-25-2008 01:52 PM
Re: What Are the Economic Collapse Indicators to Watch For? (sigh) It's not a race. There isn't any start signal. A collapse typically lasts zero to a few years. Indicators depend on exactly what is collapsing at this or that moment. US money is in danger of collapse but not there yet. The economy is weak but still operating smoothly. Faith in government is still strong and likely will never go to zero. But then again, maybe it will. Local police forces are acting strangely but not uncontrolled. Some citizens feel oppressed, some don't. Inflation is increasing at an increasing rate. Weather has not been a problem, but there are signs that it might become a problem. There is no sign of impending invasion. Any of these things could change instantly depending on some small and unpredictable trigger event. A cow fart might cause a change in weather and Guiana might decide to invade. Yes, it might be that improbable. BTW, Here is the study of cultural collapse.

BellevueBully | 09-25-2008 04:13 PM
Re: What Are the Economic Collapse Indicators to Watch For? Quote:
Originally Posted by BellevueBully (Post 1311956) As I understand (will post a source later) the US is incapable of going into default. .
great vid, I encourage you to view http://watch.bnn.ca/wednesday/#clip95700

Silver Moon Rising | 09-25-2008 09:14 PM
Re: What Are the Economic Collapse Indicators to Watch For? Quote:
Originally Posted by ConfusedUs (Post 1311754) New limits on moving funds outside the US
This is already happening. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121193252276024279.html Quote:
It's been called "the ultimate estate plan": moving to a desert island or other far-off locale to escape the clutches of the Internal Revenue Service. Indeed, hundreds of Americans do formally renounce their U.S. citizenship every year, many in order to protect their wealth from income, estate and gift taxes. But last week, Congress may have made life less rewarding for tax exiles. Some exiles were born and raised in the U.S., such as John Dorrance III -- grandson of the inventor and entrepreneur who helped found Campbell Soup Co. -- who renounced his citizenship in 1994 and emigrated to Ireland, which has significantly lower tax rates. Others have long lived outside the U.S. and are seeking to avoid the unique consequences of its tax system, which taxes its citizens no matter where in the world they live and earn. In 2007, 470 Americans renounced their citizenship to move abroad, according to a Wall Street Journal review of Federal Register notices. The list of those who relinquished U.S. citizenship in the past 12 months includes a London-based office-supplies magnate and the daughter of an Iraqi private-equity billionaire. Now, after years of threatening to do so, Congress has passed a law that will tax the assets of those who leave for good on their way out the door, as if they were selling those assets. But tax experts say the more significant change may be a provision that taxes U.S. heirs on amounts given or left to them by ex-U.S. citizens. Taxing the recipient instead of the donor will make it harder to get around the tax rules. "The new rules say, if you leave any of your property to a U.S. person, it will be taxed at the rates for U.S. gift tax," which are currently 45%, says Henry Alden, a certified public accountant at Everest International Group, a Baltimore-based financial-planning firm. The new taxes are included in legislation providing tax benefits for soldiers and military veterans and will apply only to those who renounce their citizenship after President Bush signs the bill into law, as he is widely expected to do. Some of those permanently leaving the U.S. for tax reasons are private-equity deal makers, hedge-fund managers or entrepreneurs who have made fortunes here, whether born in the U.S. or elsewhere. Others are foreign-born, often academics, who have gained citizenship but are repatriating to their native countries after an extended stay. One former citizen is Serra Nemir Kirdar, an advocate for Arab women in business and daughter of the Iraqi-born billionaire Nemir Kirdar, founder of private-equity powerhouse Investcorp. While born in the U.S., Serra Kirdar was educated at Oxford and now resides in the United Arab Emirates. "I very much believe that it is the responsibility of people who hold citizenship where they reside to pay their taxes," Ms. Kirdar said in a telephone interview. "In the event that someone doesn't live there or make use of the protections that come from citizenship, they should not be liable for paying taxes to a country they just hold a passport from." Another former U.S. citizen is George Karibian, founder and chairman of U.K.-based online office supplier Euroffice. Through a spokeswoman, Mr. Karibian declined to comment for this article. His biography posted on a trade-group Web site indicates that since graduating from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School in 1993, he has lived and done business in various European locales. Lawmakers have been struggling for years to change a tax system for expatriates that was cumbersome yet easy to circumvent. "The old law was very easy to manage, with the right advice," says Evelyn Capassakis, an estate planner at PricewaterhouseCoopers in New York. Under the old system, tax exiles were required to file annual U.S. returns for 10 years after they renounced their citizenship. For that time period, income tax was owed on all U.S.-source income. Estate and gift taxes also applied to U.S. assets transferred during that period. The system encouraged people to hold onto their U.S. assets until after the 10-year period expired and then unload them. And while estate taxes still applied to intangible assets such as stock in U.S. companies, gifts of U.S.-based stock were not taxed after the 10-year period. "Patience was rewarded under the old regime," says Mr. Alden. Under the new law, the 10-year transition rule is abolished. U.S. citizens and long-term residents who are terminating their status will be taxed once on their unrealized gains, at current market rates. Stock portfolios, real estate, art and most other types of assets will be captured by this new "mark to market" tax. Some experts say the new law could deter some citizens or residents from leaving the U.S., since the benefits of doing so will be reduced. Yet the simplicity of the new one-time tax may appeal to others. One aspect of the new law that has practitioners concerned is that it applies not only to U.S. citizens but long-term residents. That means it will capture foreign executives who have been permanent residents of the U.S. for more than eight years. "There are a bunch of green-card holders who may fall prey," says Mr. Alden. They may now owe taxes to both their native country and the U.S., he says. As in the old system, the new rules are triggered only for individuals with a net worth of $2 million or more, or who owed more than $124,000 in income taxes on average over the past five years, indexed for inflation. Even if one of those conditions is met, the first $600,000 in gains are not subject to the tax.

Mone | 09-25-2008 09:17 PM
Re: What Are the Economic Collapse Indicators to Watch For? The PM market being hammered down right before a major crisis with physical being hard to find... Oh... already happened.

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