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- - A New Pandemic Fear: A Shortage of Surgical Masks (http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=376282)

MNeagle | 05-19-2009 09:55 AM
A New Pandemic Fear: A Shortage of Surgical Masks A New Pandemic Fear: A Shortage of Surgical Masks By BEVAN SCHNECK Bevan Schneck � Tue May 19, 2:55 am ET The surgical face mask has become perhaps the most recognizable symbol of the H1N1 pandemic threat, but if the currently circulating flu virus does in fact reach full-fledged pandemic proportions, U.S. health officials say there won't be enough face masks to go around. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) says the nation would need more than 30 billion masks - 27 billion of the simple surgical kind, which can be worn safely for only about two hours before needing replacement, and 5 billion of the sturdier respirator variety, which also requires regular replacement - to protect all Americans adequately in the event of a serious epidemic. But the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Strategic National Stockpile currently contains only 119 million masks - 39 million surgical and 80 million respirator. That's less than 1% of the goal health officials set in 2007 following the devastation of Hurricane Katrina, which highlighted the country's shortages of vital medical gear. (See pictures of the swine flu in Mexico.) The U.S. mask gap stands in stark contrast to what other nations have on hand: the U.S. has one mask for every three Americans (masks are not supposed to be shared), while Australia has 2.5 masks per resident and Great Britain boasts six. "With the recent outbreak of the novel H1N1 influenza virus," warned Representative Kay Granger, a Texas Republican, "it has become clear that we need to purchase more medical supplies and replenish the Strategic National Stockpile." (Read "How to Prepare for a Pandemic.") Maskmakers are worried too, especially since ramping up production in the midst of a pandemic won't be easy. Most maskmaking operations have moved outside the U.S., and 90% of masks sold in the U.S. now come from Mexico or China. But if the U.S. suddenly put in orders for millions of masks, Mexico and China would be unlikely to export their supplies before making sure their own populations were fully protected. "HHS knows the problem exists and yet they won't tell the health-care industry," says Mike Bowen of Texas-based Prestige Ameritech, the largest and one of the last remaining American mask manufacturers. "If they would only admit the problem exists, American hospitals would buy American masks and the manufacturing infrastructure would return." (Read "Battling Swine Flu: The Lessons from SARS.") Of course, the more basic question is, How much do masks really help to stem the spread of disease? It's unclear, according to the CDC, which isn't recommending that people wear masks amid the current H1N1 outbreak. The CDC website says that "very little is known about the benefits" of wearing masks during a pandemic, and that the best preventive steps are frequent hand-washing and covering one's mouth when coughing or sneezing. Along with these strategies, the most effective techniques for preventing contagion are so-called social-distancing measures, such as closing schools, churches, theaters and other public gatherings, and generally keeping people apart from one another - efforts that may be further encouraged by the presence of face masks. Surgical masks by themselves may not do much to prevent transmission within the community in part because they are loose fitting, offering a weak barrier between infected and uninfected people - hence, the government's better advice to wash hands and cover up sneezes and coughs - and masks must be changed frequently to avoid contamination. Respirator masks, which have a tighter fit, filter 95% of airborne particles to give wearers better protection, so long as they wear them consistently - which most people generally fail to do. Where masks do make a demonstrable difference is in the health-care setting, protecting caregivers from sick patients - both in hospitals and at home - and a national shortage could impact these front-line responders most severely. "Much of what is contained in the Strategic National Stockpile are vaccines and medicines," including 50 million doses of Tamiflu, says CDC spokesperson Von Roebuck, noting that more medical supplies must be purchased. Meanwhile, as the H1N1 virus continues its rapid spread around the world - as of May 18, 40 countries had officially reported 8,829 cases, including 74 deaths - nervous customers have been snapping up face masks in the U.S. Prestige Ameritech's sales have doubled in recent weeks, forcing the company to maintain a seven-days-a-week production schedule to keep up with demand. Even though Prestige Ameritech is a wholesaler that sells its products to retailers, such as 3M, there have been so many people trying to buy masks directly from the Prestige factory in suburban Fort Worth that the company has had to lock all its doors. Whether or not face masks will protect people from disease, sometimes it helps just to have the illusion of security. http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/2009051...5ld3BhbmRlbWlj

Twisted Avatar | 05-19-2009 10:47 AM
Re: A New Pandemic Fear: A Shortage of Surgical Masks [B] Quote:
Originally Posted by MNeagle (Post 1728696) Meanwhile, as the H1N1 virus continues its rapid spread around the world - as of May 18, 40 countries had officially reported 8,829 cases, including 74 deaths - nervous customers have been snapping up face masks in the U.S. Prestige Ameritech's sales have doubled in recent weeks, forcing the company to maintain a seven-days-a-week production schedule to keep up with demand. Even though Prestige Ameritech is a wholesaler that sells its products to retailers, such as 3M, there have been so many people trying to buy masks directly from the Prestige factory in suburban Fort Worth that the company has had to lock all its doors. Whether or not face masks will protect people from disease, sometimes it helps just to have the illusion of security.
74 deaths out of 5 Billion people If my math is correct this deadly virus has killed 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000001% of the Population. Do you really think this should be illiciting the response that it is getting and what of this foolishness buying masks??? All your doing is making the fearmonger and the disease makers richer. T

Ash_Williams | 05-19-2009 01:58 PM
Re: A New Pandemic Fear: A Shortage of Surgical Masks Quote:
74 deaths out of 5 Billion people If my math is correct this deadly virus has killed 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000001% of the Population. Do you really think this should be illiciting the response that it is getting and what of this foolishness of buying masks??? All you doing is making the fearmonger and the disease makers richer.
74 might not sound like a lot of people (it's often compared to the deaths from the regular seasonal flu and people say "well the normal flu kills thousands of people and this thing has only taken out 74") but you have to put it in the context of how many people were infected and the short period that it's been known. If you assume around 7400 people were infected then it's killing about 1%. The common flu might kill a lot more people in raw numbers, but it infects billions so it has a better chance. If this thing infected billions then even with a low single-digit mortality rate we'd see tens of millions of people die. Not that I think a flimsy mask is going to change anything. Might as well tape a kleenex to your face. I could be wrong but I think this thing is just getting rolling. It's going to hit some real crowded place and explode before anyone realizes what's going on.

Twisted Avatar | 05-19-2009 03:21 PM
Re: A New Pandemic Fear: A Shortage of Surgical Masks Quote:
Originally Posted by Ash_Williams (Post 1728979) 74 might not sound like a lot of people (it's often compared to the deaths from the regular seasonal flu and people say "well the normal flu kills thousands of people and this thing has only taken out 74") but you have to put it in the context of how many people were infected and the short period that it's been known. If you assume around 7400 people were infected then it's killing about 1%. The common flu might kill a lot more people in raw numbers, but it infects billions so it has a better chance. If this thing infected billions then even with a low single-digit mortality rate we'd see tens of millions of people die. Not that I think a flimsy mask is going to change anything. Might as well tape a kleenex to your face. I could be wrong but I think this thing is just getting rolling. It's going to hit some real crowded place and explode before anyone realizes what's going on.
Not Before Big Brother has all the emergency powers in place to take maximum advantage of this "unfortunate calamity" And when the emergency has passed they will not relinquish those powers but clamor for even more. T

TheNocturnalEgyptian | 05-19-2009 10:36 PM
Re: A New Pandemic Fear: A Shortage of Surgical Masks .................................................. ...........AUDIBLE SIGH. This is the big letdown with our society. Somehow, everyone thinks that a factory made, one size fits all mask designed to keep SAWDUST out of your mouth is going to protect them from Pork Lung. http://www.massagetherapystore.ca/oc...ges/442407.jpg Am I the ONLY guy who is completely satisfied with a bandanna soaked in home-made air sterilizer? At least it fits my face and filters the air I breath. Seriously, anything that the Bandana doesn't catch is probably coming in through my eyes, my ears, and my skin. You have to embrace a certain amount of destiny to walk the walk these days. If you die.......well you couldn't cut the mustard. God's plan and all that. This isn't me: http://www.bandusta.com.au/images/spraying.jpg

TheNocturnalEgyptian | 05-19-2009 10:37 PM
Re: A New Pandemic Fear: A Shortage of Surgical Masks http://i149.photobucket.com/albums/s...g?t=1242787039

Osaka | 05-19-2009 11:15 PM
Re: A New Pandemic Fear: A Shortage of Surgical Masks Quote:
Originally Posted by Twisted Avatar (Post 1728766) If my math is correct...
It's not, though I'm guessing you weren't being serious. 74/5000000000=0.0000000148=0.00000148% The death rate for those infected to date is .838%, which means there is a 99.16% survival rate. At that rate if 5 billion people are infected 41.9 million will die. For comparison, between 1981 and 2007, 25 million people died of AIDS.

thorgrim | 05-19-2009 11:31 PM
Re: A New Pandemic Fear: A Shortage of Surgical Masks You also have to take into account that not all the people infected are seeking medical attention or being tested if they do though. The real death rate is much lower.

fasTTcar | 05-19-2009 11:37 PM
Re: A New Pandemic Fear: A Shortage of Surgical Masks Update to 79 deaths and a 1/3rd more Americans infected than Mexicans: http://www.who.int/csr/don/h1n1_20090519_0600.jpg

Unclad Lad | 05-20-2009 02:20 AM
Re: A New Pandemic Fear: A Shortage of Surgical Masks The loose-fitting masks cannot catch the flu bugs, but it can cut down on the number of airborne droplets inhaled in a crowded setting. Their most important function is psychological--telling a jumpy populace that there is nothing that can be done to protect themselves. If you think the current economic situation is bad, wait until the first "Nobody Go To Work" Week occurs. A few deaths is better than total economic meltdown. One other thing to note in the article: the number of masks in store by HHS is nowhere near the number of masks sitting on store shelves. Most of the stores I frequent have them in stock (and of course I stocked up years ago).

Drumblebum | 05-20-2009 02:25 AM
Re: A New Pandemic Fear: A Shortage of Surgical Masks I suppose if I owned boots, I'd be shaking in them. :sarcasm:

macrohard | 05-20-2009 06:45 AM
Re: A New Pandemic Fear: A Shortage of Surgical Masks Quote:
Originally Posted by thorgrim (Post 1729745) You also have to take into account that not all the people infected are seeking medical attention or being tested if they do though. The real death rate is much lower.
Many of the people infected in the US and Europe were treated with tamiflu. That could have prevented some deaths. This strain could become resistant if people start to misuse the drug (almost guaranteed).

St. Germain | 05-20-2009 07:33 AM
Re: A New Pandemic Fear: A Shortage of Surgical Masks [QUOTE=TheNocturnalEgyptian;1729681].................................................. ...........AUDIBLE SIGH. This is the big letdown with our society. Somehow, everyone thinks that a factory made, one size fits all mask designed to keep SAWDUST out of your mouth is going to protect them from Pork Lung. QUOTE] Pork Lung.... :111::111::111: Nice ST

CrufflerJJ | 05-20-2009 09:11 AM
Re: A New Pandemic Fear: A Shortage of Surgical Masks Quote:
Originally Posted by macrohard (Post 1729996) Many of the people infected in the US and Europe were treated with tamiflu. That could have prevented some deaths. This strain could become resistant if people start to misuse the drug (almost guaranteed).
I heard something interesting on NPR a day or two ago. Apparently one of the main raw materials used to manufacture Tamiflu is extracted from Star Anise, which is commonly used in Chinese cooking (5 spice powder & other stuff). The surge in Tamiflu demand is causing a jump in price for this spice over in china, where the majority of Star Anise is grown.

TheNocturnalEgyptian | 05-21-2009 04:58 PM
Re: A New Pandemic Fear: A Shortage of Surgical Masks Remember the first batch of Tamiflu which caused nightmarish hallucinations? It made the news.

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