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Wyldwil | 11-08-2007 06:52 PM
The Fallacy of Gold http://www.oldjimbo.com/survival/v-shrake/gold.html http://www.oldjimbo.com/survival/ The Fallacy of Gold by V-Shrake One thing has always intrigued me about the preparation we all go through for surviving the end of the world. While there is no disputing the logic of stocking up on food, guns and ammo, and the other sundries of everyday life, lots of article have been devoted to the usefulness of gold in these TEOTWAWKI scenarios. Indeed, these pundits would have us believe that gold is all we need to survive any calamity. Not surprisingly, most of these articles have been written by a man with an interest to sell you gold and numismatic silver. Let us look at a hypothetical situation. We're a few years into the future, four years after the disaster of your choice. It doesn't matter what brought us to this strait, just that civilization as we know it today no longer exists. You, like those around you, survived. Unlike some others, you took precautions; like Aesop's ant, you laid in enough to see you through the lean years. Some of your neighbors weren't so foresighted, and one of these benighted souls, cold and hungry, has shown up at the door to your retreat. He has a box of 9mm that he scrounged somewhere, but owns a .38 special revolver. Your Browning can always use a little more ammo, so you ask what he wants in trade. At this point, let's ask ourselves what we would want in the above scenario. A box of .38's, and maybe a can or two of beef stew? Or a two ounce bar of 99% pure, shiny, worthless, gold? Gold, like most things man has based an economy upon, has no intrinsic worth beyond what we assign. While it is quite handy in the electronics industry, and the jeweler's of the world wish us to believe it's the only way to buy true love, it has no other real uses. In a collapsed society, items of real worth will be those that we can use. Unpolluted water, food, ammunition, any number of manufactured goods such as soap and toothpaste will be much more in demand than gold. It will be many years, if ever in our lifetimes, (depending on the severity of the situation) before gold is used again as a currency. Fishing weights and musket balls will be about all that gold would be good for. But wait, you say. What about something other than a system-wide collapse, say a hurricane or other natural disaster of limited duration? Surely a stash of gold or pre-1965 dimes and quarters will come in handy then? Wrong again. While it is true that unscrupulous shop owners will charge many times the going rate for goods and services in such a situation, how many of them do you suppose will take your word on how much a Krugerand is worth? How many people, outside of coin collectors and survivalists, even know about the value of pre-1965 silver coins? And even if they do, how do you propose to buy a loaf of bread with a two ounce bar of gold? Take a wheelbarrow along to cart home your change in greenbacks? Far better, if you live in flood- or tornado-prone areas, is to have a wad of bills to supplement your food and fuel reserves. Which brings us to the meat of the matter. Now that I have hopefully dispelled the notion of gold being a wise investment (besides, how many of us can afford to have gold on top of everything else we need to put in our larders and lockers?), I'll give you some idea of what would be handy to have on hand for trade purposes. As I said above, anything that you use on a daily basis will likely be in demand after a disaster, whether man-made or otherwise. Soap, paper towels, toilet paper, vitamins, toothpaste and toothbrushes; all common, everyday items that we take for granted now which may be impossible to scavenge. And there surely won't be any more being made. What I do, so as not to break my budget but still lay in supplies that I myself will use, and possibly barter with, is this: Every month, while doing my regular shopping, I buy an extra bar of soap, roll of paper towels, toilet paper, a bottle of analgesic, three big boxes of strike-anywhere matches, and Q-tips. Every three months I lay in the following: a package of disposable razors, multi-vitamins (a jar of 133), tube of toothpaste, toothbrush, and a box of ten or twelve large, plastic garbage bags. These are all things that I use on a daily basis, and wouldn't want to be without. While the toilet paper and Q-tips might seem to be pure comfort items, the soap and toothpaste are not. Basic hygiene is going to be more important than ever in a world without pharmacies and doctors. And those garbage bags may well prove to be the most versatile thing in your stock of survival goods. While they can be used for their intended purpose, they will also do yeoman service as emergency rain slickers, waterproofing the roof of a shelter, disposing of diseased animal carcasses or human waste, waterproof sandbags to shore up a leaking dike... While they might not be ideal for some things, you'll at least have them to improvise with. Other trade goods you might wish to lay in follow the same basic principles. What do you use on a daily basis, or see a possible need or use for in an emergency? If you can see a need for it, someone else will too. Only maybe they didn't have the foresight to have it on hand before the world went blooey! What about extra ammo, preferably in a caliber you use yourself. That way, if you can't trade it (not too likely), you're not out anything. Food would be good, but remember, you need to eat, too. It's unlikely that you could have such a vast stockpile of stuff that you could trade away canned goods. But what about raising your own meat and trading that for something you don't have? I live on two acres, and keep goats and rabbits. The goats provide me with meat, milk, and skins. The rabbits are tasty, and perhaps the easiest meat animal to raise. They take up next to no space, eat comparatively little, and breed... well, like rabbits. Two does and one buck can provide you with a lot of protein. But there is very little fat in rabbits, so don't count on them alone. But the milk from the goats has a high fat content, and can be drunk as is, or made into butter or cheese. Having a few fifty pound boxes of nails around wouldn't be amiss, either. People might be able to scrounge plywood and boards from other structures, but they won't find nails so easy to come by. Anything that is comparatively cheap today, and versatile or indispensable, would be a fine trade item. A few cheap knives, such as those seen in catalogs, would be good, too. A stout fixed-blade knife of a bowie design would be much in demand in a world where we have to butcher our own food. And don't forget services, either. A mechanic or general handyman would be a good man to know in an emergency, where there will be no manufacturing of new parts. An old-fashioned blacksmith would be a boon right about then. So think about the possible future we're planning to survive, and what might be entailed in that brave new world. And gold won't figure prominently at all.

boyscout | 11-08-2007 07:25 PM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold Wyldwil just posted the most intelligent thread on this website. The "Be Prepared" Boy Scouts of America never once mention gold. Never. Water, food, clothing, and shelter. That's it folks. Be Prepared!

Master_Ho | 11-08-2007 07:47 PM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold While I do not totally agree about his take on gold - I will continue to store it away (cause what if we never have a EOTWAWKI situation??).....<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> I DO agree with his survival points in the second half of the article - and have been doing that myself.........<o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> In fact, on another GIM thread, we talked about the Foodsaver to extend stored food shelf-life.......and I recently bought one.<o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> We keep buying extras when we shop, sealing them and storing them away...........<o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> But, the other day I was thinking about various times in history when supplies got tight and people needed stuff.........and needless to say, there are lists of things people will need and barter for...........<o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> So I got to thinking........what's the one thing they ALWAYS seem to want during those times that, right now is cheap and we can store away for down the road to barter for other things...........<o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> And the cheapest thing that came to mind was not ammo!<o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> In fact, I do NOT want to be bartering or selling ammo cause those will be the same people who turn around, use it on me, and take the rest of the ammo! (DUH!)<o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> The cheapest - and most often desired thing - during periods of history like this was.............SUGAR!<o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> We can not store everything people will want - but if there is ONE THING that people will want - and its cheap and we CAN store a lot of it away for future barter..........its sugar..........and then salt.<o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> So, in addition to storing things we know we'll need, we are also storing away a few pounds of salt and sugar every week...........sealing them so they will be good for many years.<o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> I am sharing this because I am thinking - if people here want to do something similar - pick one of two cheap items and seal and store them away - it might be an idea that, down the road, gives you bartering leverage!!!<o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> Hope I made sense! <o:p></o:p> Cheers!<o:p></o:p>

electrum | 11-08-2007 08:03 PM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold 2 Attachment(s) How silly. Save for a nuclear war or an asteroid hitting Earth, the idea that human society is going to collapse to total anarchy is foolish. Just like the Y2K crazies who were flat wrong. If the former, the majority of us will not survive regardless of high-level preparations. Gold will be quite valuable in 99 out of 100 "disaster" scenarios. It won't be a Mad Max world. It will be a 1929 Depression America, maybe Weimar Germany. The difference will be akin to the Incan Empire culture v. the Yanomami savage tribal culture. All order is not going to break down. Guns, food, and women will not be the currency of the new society. This is fantasy, a delusion even - one which overly macho males probably get excited over. Gold & Silver, the currencies of nearly every society throughout every era, in times paradisical and disastrous, for thousands of years, will remain currency of last resort in the future.

electrum | 11-08-2007 08:09 PM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold Quote:
Originally Posted by boyscout (Post 820940) Wyldwil just posted the most intelligent thread on this website. The "Be Prepared" Boy Scouts of America never once mention gold. Never. Water, food, clothing, and shelter. That's it folks. Be Prepared!
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/...in711597.shtml http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/07/28/scouts.jamboree/ Looks like common sense and knowledge of the basics of wilderness survival are lacking in the BSA.

Googler | 11-08-2007 08:16 PM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold Quote:
Originally Posted by boyscout (Post 820940) Wyldwil just posted the most intelligent thread on this website. The "Be Prepared" Boy Scouts of America never once mention gold. Never. Water, food, clothing, and shelter. That's it folks. Be Prepared!
Book/Coin/KG has risen again!!:applause_:applause_:applause_ You really ought to hide your syntax a little better bud :wink: Glad to have you back buddy-ole-pal. :smokin:

REV127 | 11-08-2007 08:19 PM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold Eh, I've seen a lot of articles and opinions like that. They always overlook two very important facts. 1: Gold is one of the few substances that can't be counterfeited. Not because you can't turn lead into gold or some silliness like that, but because gold has some very special physical properties that cannot be replicated by any other material. 2: Silver is very useful. It can be used to fashion mirrors for harnessing solar thermal energy but at least as important it can be used for purifying water and healing wounds. With that out of the way, the best thing you can do for SHTF wealth is to be able to make stuff. Like grow food, process raw materials and scrap into useable forms, make tools and equipment, etc. Instead of just preserving wealth or increasing wealth you are actually generating wealth by taking something relatively worthless and making it into something very valuable.

Silvestor | 11-08-2007 08:25 PM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold I think one should only invest in precious metals once they have plenty of rural land,water,food,guns,and ammo.

keehah | 11-08-2007 08:31 PM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold Quote:
Indeed, these pundits would have us believe that gold is all we need to survive any calamity.....
A straw man rebuttal article .... :sleep: As someone else posted here last week (I'd post who, but I did not save it and GIM's search feature is too poor to find it again): Quote:
It seems these threads invariably turn into Straw Pinata whacking contests. First there is the It Will Come Down Overnight crew. Maybe, but more probably maybe not. Then the They are Gonna Take Everything You Have group; whether They are the government or the zombies is only a matter of taste. And the idea that a retreat is a losing idea also strikes me as funny in the wake of the recent SoCa fires and flooding in NOLA. Certainly a bug out is not the solution to a long term problem but could be valuable in the short term. Unless you would rather be in a football stadium on a cot. And then of course the I Have Ammo So All is Well bunch chimes in. But like AP mentioned and as I started a thread about a while back I also believe it will be a Slow Slide into the Sh!t instead of It Hitting the Fan. On the topic of the thread though, hoarding is defined as panic buying in response to fear. I would venture stocking a pantry over time as a means to reduce costs and increase convenience doesn’t qualify since it increases the supply of goods to folks without enough foresight to keep a larder when things go south. And more especially if the goods are from ones own production. Perhaps it may be Overnight Armageddon -- or not Perhaps folks might try to take your stuff - or not Perhaps there is a need for many tools including arms - or not Why not try to prepare for as many situations as possible with the resources at hand?

TheSimpleton | 11-09-2007 12:11 PM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold This writer seems to have devilishly weak sense of history. Homework: Go review the last 20 SHTF events worldwide, get back to me on what retained value. Extra-credit: Review the last 5 major wars and see what held value and what nations purchased their international war materials with. Hmm. Back of the book answers say: 1) gold and 2) gold. What does that tell you? For whatever peculiar reason, gold ALWAYS retains its value. ALWAYS. Why, I don't know, as he's perfectly correct that it has no use whatsoever. But history doesn't lie. Who do you think got through the border in Iraq, Zimbabwe, Cote d'Ivoire, Serbia, USSR, and Viet Nam? Those with beans? .38 rounds? Farmland? Skills? Neighbors? No. Gold. Only one other group gets out that's people with FAMILIES who pool together to get you out. Like a lot of educated, intellegent, well-meaning BS, it sounds great. History is the final arbitrer, however. I will give one scenario where gold is NOT valuable. See "Empire of the Sun" where he says, "Yes, you taught me people will do anything for a potato." http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0092965/quotes The moment people can get that potato, gold has value again. TS

Anty Ep | 11-09-2007 12:21 PM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold here's the other thing. if it's TEOTWAKI or whatever, then I dont plan on being Mad Max I plan on being a damned warlord. I will revert to the code of Chingis Khan "crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of their women." Then I will have a mighty big yurt that will need lots of gold baubles for my amusement and harem etc. So yes, even if TSHTF in a big way, there will always be buyers and stealers and sellers and losers of gold. On second thought, I will pattern myself after Clovis the Frank, rather than the Khan. Like Clovis a lot better. Did Clovis have a harem?

stranger | 11-09-2007 01:25 PM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold I agree with the author, in part. Gold may not help you as much as we'd all like to believe in a day to day survival situation, especilly in rural areas where PM values won't be widely known or accepted. BUT, it will help in weathering the financial SHTF scenario that would precede or accompany the real world survival situation. Having a hedge against hyperinflation and retaining real world value after the storm has passed is just as important to me as weathering the storm itself. Way I see it, stocking up on the three B's goes hand in hand with holding PMs. Why make it through teowawki intact only to be destitute afterwards?

Mastro | 11-09-2007 01:44 PM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold Has everyone forgot about collodial silver and gold. The pioneers used to put silver dollars in their milk to make it keep longer.

sand86 | 11-09-2007 01:55 PM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold If you think that civilization will collapse completely (ie manufacturing ceases all together) I would suggest investing in a stockpile of condoms. I think they would become a very desired commodity. For me i'll stick to PMs for now.

MOD1 | 11-09-2007 01:57 PM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold Quote:
Originally Posted by Mastro (Post 822030) Has everyone forgot about collodial silver and gold. The pioneers used to put silver dollars in their milk to make it keep longer.
I anectodally mentioned this during a class lecture on metals last semester and most of the students looked at me as if I had three eyes!:confused_ma: Take care, Mod1

Anty Ep | 11-09-2007 02:00 PM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold a rubber is a good item for an auto survival bag because you can use it to transport at least a gallon of water. lol

mooshcook | 11-09-2007 02:07 PM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold Guns ammo, solar power, wind power, you know "stuff you can buy" will become cheaper if you have gold, silver. Sometimes I don't know why I waste the energy, my fingers are sooo tired. :confused_ma: Just ki

MOD1 | 11-09-2007 02:15 PM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold I like to have "extra-long" tie-down straps, a few good bungee cords and rope available in my truck. You never know what you may find scrounging around near the side of the road! :bear_w00t: One of the best skills that someone taught me years ago was how to cinch rope using a truckers' hitch. http://www.animatedknots.com/truckers/index.php Take care, Mod1

Unclad Lad | 11-10-2007 01:00 AM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold The author assumes an even breakdown of society, which is absurd. The rich and powerful will resist the downward slide better than the poor, and as the number of have-nots grow, those with the means will turn to police, both public and private. As the normal processes and channels deteriorate, corruption and graft will become the most expedient way to conduct business. Gold is highly liquid, easy to transport, and virtually untraceable. You aren't going to get past the border guard with an American Express or a bushel of wheat--and where will the city dwellers get that bushel in the first place? Gold is a tool. It shouldn't be your only or even first tool, but it has its place.

Antonio | 11-10-2007 01:43 AM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold 2 questions: Why is the author talking about 2 ounce gold bars?I`ve never heard about such an item. Why was Boyscout banned?

RealityCheck | 11-10-2007 12:21 PM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold The PM's are to make sure you have some wealth after the dust settles. I sure hope I dont have to spend mine when TSHTF.

Antonio | 11-10-2007 08:10 PM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold Quote:
Originally Posted by naccarato (Post 824149) Are American's so fragile that a 50 percent haircut in the value of the buck is going to cause armageddon? I don't think so. Look at Argentina, they had an economic collapse a couple of years ago, they didn't start killing each other. Bad times coming? ok, but not "end of times".
I`ve seen NY electricity blackout a few years ago.After 40 minutes people started to behave like animals in the lines for batteries and flashlights.Look at Katrina and think again.

Antonio | 11-11-2007 12:05 AM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold Quote:
Originally Posted by naccarato (Post 824254) Astoria queens went without power for 9 days, they didn't start killing each other. All depends on the character of the people in the area. Anyhow a devalued buck is not going to cause blackouts, just higher prices.
I`m in da Bronx:)

AMforPM | 11-11-2007 02:01 AM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold What the Simpleton said. I have stocked up, and gotten extras of many things, but a lot of things will likely be better buys 2nd hand when things get really rough than they asre now, meanwhile gold is appreciating faster than inflation. :D So food, seed, all the things wyld mentioned are great to have extra, but I also foresee more like Argentina than Mad Max. Even in situations as horrific as Rwanda bribery often worked. Gold is king for that task. And short of civil war, gold has served in conditions such as famines for all of recorded history. But I'd prefer to be stocked up, and not a drain on whatever community resources are being handed out at soup kitchens (or drain my savings), and use gold to preserve our savings for things like dental work or the like. Ever since I used Y2K (which I never thought would happen) as an excuse to stock up, I have felt more confident and relaxed. I think it is normal for humans to provide for lean years when they can, and our modern way of not doing so is abnormal. And as we rotate the stored items we notice how much we saved buying ahead. And sometimes when 3 unusual expenses hit the same month, it is great to not have to worry about basics or use up savings that are asppreciasting, but jusdt rely more on stored items and top up in a month when the budget is roomier. Up to horrific disaster levels both a full pantry, and gold when it is a bull, are provident and positive for your family and your community. Your gold is community positive because it is money you can put back in local circulation. Katrina required active Federal malicious intervention to not have had plenty of voluntarily donated fresh water and rescuers with boats. And there were a lot more people helping each other than harming each other even at that.

Got Goldies | 11-11-2007 02:04 AM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold Preserving the law with Gold is the only option. If Gold cannot secure the law after a fiat collapse, all the canned food in the world will not save you.

SUPERCHARGER | 11-11-2007 02:20 AM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold i should of posted this here instead of starting a thread - oh well. speaking strickly of money would it not be easier/better to barter with ase's or 90% silver than 1 oz gold coin or bar's if/when tshtf? if all i have is age's then thats all i can give. and once he/she knows that, thats all they will want. whereas if i had some silver; ase's, pre 65 nickels, dimes, quarts, halfs and dollars i could wheel and deal without giving up a fortune. that is providing silver dont peak at $901. probably be a bit calmer altitude also. people go nuts when seeing gold but silver has a calming effect. LOL

Mined over Matter | 11-15-2007 11:03 AM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold Quote:
Originally Posted by Anty Ep (Post 821896) here's the other thing. if it's TEOTWAKI or whatever, then I dont plan on being Mad Max I plan on being a damned warlord. I will revert to the code of Chingis Khan "crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of their women." Then I will have a mighty big yurt that will need lots of gold baubles for my amusement and harem etc. So yes, even if TSHTF in a big way, there will always be buyers and stealers and sellers and losers of gold. On second thought, I will pattern myself after Clovis the Frank, rather than the Khan. Like Clovis a lot better. Did Clovis have a harem?
Funny stuff Anty Ep. :) I have a funny thought as a side note. Now, I don't have specific knowledge of our collective demographic here at GIM, but I'm guessing as a group we tend to live in more rural areas than urban. So, if you will, we're the urban gold hoarders. But Genghis Khan, if your conquering raids should lead you towards an urban area, I suggest you turn the cavalry around. For deep among the city blocks lies another group of warlords, some of whom might be more heavily armed than you (although with shorter barrels), and who are sure to be sitting on a pretty nice stash of gold, silver, and platinum. Of course, I'm speaking of members of the hip-hop culture in general, where firepower and bling bling are the golden idols of the day. While seeking status and respect, they may have stumbled upon the magic combination for post-SHTF survival. I, for one, would love to be on the sidelines for the epic battle between Anty Ep's marauding hoards under Clovis the Frank's banner, and 50-Cent's entrenched urban army equipped with plenty of humvees and tank-like SUVs under the banner of MTV2. Now, while I just enjoyed the humor in this fictitious scenario, the smile only lasted for a moment. Like many things these days, I can't really laugh about it because the reality behind it is so raw. I happen to think we could very well see the total breakdown of American society, because I see everyday around me the complete ignorance and ill-preparedness of the sheeple, and so their knee-jerk reaction to a "catalyzing event" would be both violent and irrational. Marauding hoards are a real possibility IMHO. We have lost the fabric of our communities in this country, and the nuclear family has become the defacto survival unit rather than the community. So I think Anty Ep's onto something... the first thing to do is to organize... collect your posse... safety in numbers, right? My second serious point is... if you live in a large city, then I really do think your best SHTF strategy is to get the F out of dodge. Hell, if you've ever thought about trying something new, perhaps leaving now would be a whole lot easier. I am in between. I wish I were the owner of a 1000-acre ranch in Wyoming, but alas, I'm a suburbanite in New England who's renting. Definitely not an ideal situation, but with my supplies I think I'm good for a while, and if I have to get mobile I have a plan for that as well (though the plan admittedly does not provide for moving a posse). Good luck to us all, and someone please remind me what TEOTWAKI stands for?? :P

Goldeneye | 11-15-2007 11:52 AM
Re: The Fallacy of Gold RE: TEOTWAKI I hate to admit it .. I had to google it .. 'The End of the world as we know it'

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