grading
 

I want to buy some Morgan dollars from Apmex, they have some graded by PCGS at $140 and the same grade but graded by NGC at $130. Does it mean one grading company is more lenient than the other? Also they only list a buying price for PCGS-graded. Are NGC-graded going to be more difficult to sell?

Re: grading
 

I would go with the PCGS, they do have higher resale value, although NGC is very reliable as well.

I find NGC more reliable when it comes to NON-MS coins, and PCGS more reliable when it comes to coins above MS-60.. that's the market PCGS really attracts, the high end wealthy market.

Either way you will be fine. I just bought this coin on ebay...

eBay: 1882 SEATED LIBERTY HALF Dollar NGC PF58 No reserve (item 8343189731 end time Oct-22-05 21:30:00 PDT)

Re: grading
 

here mintage for each year morgan
http://www.bestcoin.com/morgan-dollar-mintage.htm

here is pcg pricing
http://www.pcgs.com/prices/

:hello:

Re: grading
 

That graded coin has the same value as a non-graded coin when bartering for a bologna sandwich.

Re: grading
 

A lot of the numismatic types that hang around here wake up and unload their "rare" stuff and buy bullion. WTSHTF, "rarity" will mean nothing.

Re: grading
 

Could be. If you are buying graded coins make sure they are graded by PCGS.

Re: grading
 

In due time....my numismatic stuff is still going up faster than the bullion. I believe in both and in playing the spread with my Vegas money.

Have you compared prices of an MS63 $5.00 Indian or similar $3 Princess today with a year ago? Much better percentage return so far. Plus it's good practice learning how to hold and when to sell for when the bullion spikes. Guts poker and the pot is multiplying the ounces of bullion. Who wouldn't love raking in those extra gold chips.

Granted the common $20 gold pieces pretty much track the bullion prices, basically high premiums on the ounce price most of the time.

Re: grading
 

You're right about the rarer coins. They have popped nicely. You have to really be careful on the grading though and PCGS is the Cadillac.

Re: grading
 

On the rarer stuff PCGS only, no arguments about grade from the people who buy that stuff. I'm thinking there may be some room for big gains left with the $2.50 Indians still.

Tough choice a couple of those or a box of 200 silver Canadian Maples? Hmmmmm.

Re: grading
 

That $5 Canadian floor in the price makes them hard to beat. Nice problem to have. :wink:

Re: grading
 

That's all useful information, now why did you all wait a week to start posting replies? Wanted to give me a chance to buy crap? :shot:
I bought a gazillion of maples instead, since I didn't have a clue about grading. Now the problem is to store them, since I live in an apartment. If I could bury them somewhere I wouldn't be even looking into numismatics

Re: grading
 

Nothing wrong with Maples. If storage is the major consideration, I would rather buy gold Krugerands than silver numismatics.

Re: grading
 

I have plenty of Krugerands, want some Morgans to diversify (silver stocks too)

Re: grading
 

"Diversification" is a sales term designed to sell shit. Why "diversify" into a market that is purely arbitrary on its quotes and "iffy" at best when it comes time to sell to a dealer that more than likely bases his offer on a whim instead of a well established and firm market ? Ever meet a coin dealer who claims to "sell the cheapest and pay the most" ? Might be a good reason....... Fewer and fewer dealers are "paying sheet" according to any "industry standard" like they did in the early days of the grey sheet. Today you can expect to get scalped for at least 20-30 percent off the top on generic numismatics, sometimes more. Regardless of "going up in price" claims, don't count your chickens before your eggs hatch......i.e. until you've got the cash in hand. There is some degree of stability and assurance in dealing on the bullion side, knowing on a moments notice exactly what your holdings are worth should you decide to sell. Several decades involved in the numismatics end always proved that NOT to be the case. Arbitrary markets do have an advantage if you know how to play the game, but I never felt comfortable "playing" that game of buying common low-grade junk and selling fine high-grade antiquities. You get my drift..... :rolleyes:

Re: grading
 

Still alot of advantage to Krugerrands over most other forms of AU that I am aware of, recognizability, liquidity, very tight spreads, and easy to play the markets and "increase the chips" so to speak. Have to agree, it's much easier to store a hundred Krands than 6000+ ounces of silver too. :wink:

REPOST
-------------------

Krugerrands - Still the "Universal Money"

---------------------------------------

Sitting at the computer late into the night over the past weekend, and catching up on the usual PM forums that I try to follow on a daily basis, I realized that I had been at this gold and silver game for alot of years. I remember my first 1964 Kennedy half dollar like it was yesterday, brought home to me by a friend of my mom's sometime in early '64. I also remember getting my "weekly allowance" in the form of standing liberty quarters or walking liberty halves, though the Washingtons and Franklins were the current production models at the time, helping to date myself a little more precisely.

Those of us who have followed the metals since the re-legalization of private gold ownership in 1974 remember fondly the first Krugerrand coins to hit the markets, and the simplicity they provided in determining ounce-related holdings rather than having to go through the routine of adding, subtracting, and multiplying odd-sized fractional coins such as the Sovereigns and European ".1867 standard" pieces, Coronas, Pesos, and so on. The Krugerrands were really the first to employ the ounce standard as a way of putting gold bullion coin investment front and center.

Here we are today, some 37 years after the introduction of the original Krugerrand, and even with the later introduction of other popular bullion issues such as the Maple Leaf and U.S. Gold Eagle, the Krugerrand remains to this day what is probably the most recognized "Universal Currency" in the form of a gold coin, much as the U.S. Dollar remains the most recognized paper currency counterpart.

Few realize that the Krugerrand was originally issued as just that - a "Universal Currency", and thus the lack of any monetary "value" being placed on the coin itself, other than its gold content. In affect, the Krugerrand has a floating value based on the intrinsic value of the material it is composed of, and not the artificial decree (fiat) of some government. Anywhere you go in the world, you can exchange a gold Krugerrand for whatever happens to be the local currency at the time. Krugerrands, even after their U.S. "apartied ban" of the '80s, remain to this day as probably the most recognizable of all the ounce-standard gold bullion coins.

Anyone who keeps up with valuations and market quotes on a timely basis realizes also that the Krugerrand remains as one of the best values in gold bullion coins. While the Canadian Maple Leaf, U.S. Gold Eagle, and other popular issues may command upward of $20-$25 premiums on the retail level in this current escalating market, Krugerrands can generally still be bought on buy/sell spreads of less than $5 per coin, and in some cases, if you do some shopping around on both the buy and sell sides, you might even manage to cut those spreads by a couple of more dollars. One of the larger west coast dealers I normally do business with quotes Krugerrands at $5 over spot, while another mid-south dealer I frequently work with is paying $2.50 over spot, giving a $2.50 spread by using what I like to call the "dealer-kiting" process.

I suppose there are some of us who buy those "prettier coins" due to a personal preferrence in design, making it easier to hold on to the coins that we like. Lord knows the Krugerrand is no artistic masterpiece. But maybe the willingness to buy "those ugly coins" has an advantage in other ways, perhaps making it easier for some of us to "let go" when the best time comes to sell or trade out of our position. The lower premium spread is no doubt another incentive, since for many of us, the most gold at the least cost is really our first objective. And as of now, the Krugerrand still provides some of those advantages while overall premiums seem to be rising on most all other bullion related gold.

When all is said and done, premiums will matter little after a substantial rise in the market, but those few extra ounces of metal might. Personally, I would rather go to my dealer and walk out with 52 Krugerrands than 49 or 50 Eagles or Maple Leafs for the same money. The same carries over into the silver market as well. Junk 90% silver bags are currently (*at the time of the original post) selling at barely (3 or 4 cents) over spot in comparison to premiums of 40 cents to $1.75 or more on Silver Eagles, rounds, and fine bars. One dealer was recently unloading 40% silver half dollar bags at 20 cents UNDER silver spot. Again, a matter of getting the most value for your money.

Re: grading
 

As the most ignorant of this board in regards to the market I would like to put in my dos centavos.

As you all know I hold my silver as a "survivalist" and not as in vestment and by looking at what is going on world wide I would recommend that all of you do the same thing.

If you were to compare the price of gold and silver in 1980 and the prices today you would realise that silver at this time is WAYYYYYYY undervalued and still has a LONGGGGGGG way to go.

At the end silver WILL BE more popular than gold because not everyone can afford gold but everyone can afford silver, as the old saying goes "silver is the poor mens gold".

In the future when you come to me in order to buy or trade your PM for something that I may have I won't care how pretty your silver round is but only that it is a "one oz .999 silver round" therefore all the money that you are spending now above the spot plus fifty cents is a waste of money.

If you are thinking of living the place where you are now when the shit hits the fan then I would say YES gold is easier than silver to transport, however you could buy your silver now and take it to the place where you will be ahead of time......if you were to give someone a one oz of gold do you think that he will give you the change in silver? not me, I would give you fiat.......and besides that, do you think that everyone would have silver to give you back in change?

I don't know guys but maybe I am wrong and Bush is going to bring all the troops back home tomorrow, the Israelis will leave Palestine, there is no bird flu, there will me no "terrorist" attacks in the us, the economy in the US will be doing great ten years from now, there will be no more Katrina and no Ozone layer......and maybe the tooth fairy will leave a silver quarter under my pillow......even if I don't have anything left in my mouth.

"Gold is pretty but silver is right".......Ponce

Re: grading
 

Those of us who lived through and participated in the '79-'80 silver markets realize that it was a "flash in the pan" farce as far as the manipulated / attempted cornering of the silver markets that took place by the Hunts, driving the price of AG to those levels. On the other hand, gold at the time moved more according to pure economics than an attempted coup. Had the Hunt cornering attempt never occurred, silver would likely never have approached more than a small percentage of those levels. It was a mania-driven market, unlike gold. Using those tops as an indicator of "underpriced" levels at present is a completely moot point, akin to taking the highest price of anything at any time, and saying that's what it still "must be worth". There are dips and spikes in all markets, and one could just as easily claim that gold is only worth $16 an ounce, because that was the LOWEST price on record, etc. etc. Better to look at very long term price or value levels, and then make some determinations as to value than to just pick out a high spike or low dip to justify "where we are going" in the future. A look at the popular 600 year silver chart that has been floating around the internet these past few years shows a very obvious downtrend when smoothing out the "bumps" of spikes and dips, even with the so-called "sortages" and "using up all above ground supplies" and other popular nonsense. It's too easy for us to believe our own lies sometimes (or others telling us "what we wat to hear") when we are trying to justify things to ourselves that otherwise don't make sense or are not born out by what we are seeing with our own eyes.

Bottom line fact is this........

If there are willing sellers of silver at $X per ounce, and as long as there is actual physical silver available for purchase and delivery at that price, then THAT is precisely what it is worth at the moment as long as there is as buyer at that price. It's as simple as that. Supply and demand will always be balanced by "price".

Re: grading
 

AuNuggets,
You make it sound like PM's are not/have not been manipulated for the last few decades, with the Hunt fiasco being the only episode of manipulation. The opposite is true. The Hunts were large enough players to break the manipulated price and were punished by TPTB by changing the rules.

PM's are not a supply/demand driven market, not until there are again enough players to break it free from the grips of the manipulators.

Re: grading
 

You got it Hoarder, this time it won't be the Hunt's brothers that will make silver go up but the people.

As far as I am concern silver went up "artificially" because of the brothers but this time it will be because of the concern of the people.

Like I wrote elsewhere with the world situation what is people will look to PM in order to protect themselves and their loved one (in my case my two cats hahahahahaha) and because not everyone can afford gold they will take silver.

Silver
 

One thing is clear, whether you believe in manipulation, price fixing, hedging, oversupply, undersupply, Hunt Brothers one time event, India's demand, China Demand, Photo Industry, X-rays, Collodial Miracle,
WHATEVER THE FRICKING Reason, in light of the current world conditions, Silver has to make a meaningful statement of some kind; (at least breach 10.00, and show some balls) or it will be seen as the POS it may really be....I am glad I loaded the barge at sub 300 GOLD....GLTA

As far as grading services, PCGS was super conservative in the early holdered coins. The standards have "relaxed". On the high dollar coins, I would give a slight edge to PCGS coins. If you are buying MS65 dollars, go to a huge coin show FUN Show or Central States or ANA. Then ask a dealer for several boxes of generic MS 65 dollars to pick from. Look for eye appeal, whether it is PCGS or NGC you are buying the coin, the holder is secondary. Bottom line Ponce...there will always be collectors; some people would rather have a piece of history rather than a gleaming blob of metal stating one ounce .999 silver....ever have one assayed?

Re: Silver
 

Several good points here. The price of silver needs to get solidly into double digits next year period.

When it comes to coins buy the highest grade you can afford. I'd rather have 3 each MS66 than 6 each MS65 of anything were I looking for maximum $ return.

Much of the collector stuff in the lower grades isn't really that much more than Eagles in both gold and silver. One can put together a type collection that is fun to play with and look at for almost bullion prices.

I've enjoyed collecting the Europeon and pre '33 American stuff as part of my bullion portfolio. All the Euro stuff at bullion level prices in BU condition if you buy in 10 or more quantity and mix or match. Wanted some smaller stuff when it comes time to sell. The American stuff in AU condition, again lots of variety at a small to medium premium.

For investment stuff nothing lower than MS63 for gold and MS64 for silver in the more common dates, maybe lower in a less common date.

Demosfen, sorry it took a while but some of us don't always get to visit daily. Hopefully a lesson learned, be patient when purchasing collectible stuff and do the research on past price history, current price trends and numbers known to be in circulation in each grade you are considering purchasing, even if it takes a while. Had you, you would be aware that the graded Morgan market has been fairly stagnant price wise for a year or more with the exception being the key date GSA in original packaging graded CC mint items being the high flyers.

The Morgan market won't get away from you in a few weeks so slow and steady and wait for some nice pieces to become available, you'll be glad you did. I have and got some nice MS66's with a little toning for a good price within the last 18 months. Wish I had the whole roll they cracked those out of !

Re: grading
 

It's funny that whenever a particular market fails to do what it "should do" or is "expected" to do, we yell "MANIPULATION !!!!". We need to stop using this catch-all as a crutch for making poor decisions or to blame for whatever the current market situation. All commodities markets are "driven" (manipulated) higher and/or lower by inside market forces, shorts and longs, buyers and sellers, and that has always been the case. PMs absolutely ARE in fact a supply/demand driven market, again as ALL markets are, whether there are only a few dozen big players or thousands of smaller players makes no difference......supply/demand sets the price. Low demand = low price. Higher demand = higher prices. This ain't rocket science. We can sit around and fool ourselves with "technical charts" and such mumbo jumbo and "maybe" figure out a few patterns of sorts, IF enough others involved in the markets are DOING THE SAME, but for the most part, it is self-delusional BS.

So, are we to say that the Hunt fiasco was "not manipulation" of a sort ? Of course it was, that's the precise point. The Hunts masnipulated on the "demand" side of the equation.....the "supply" was always there, regardless of who it belonged to. As always, it was just a matter of "at what price". And that too is precisely the point.....that the market "PRICE" is and always will remain supply/demand driven. There are too many gurus involved in the silver market hype trying to make this all much more complicated than it really is. Paper is paper, physical is physical, and as long as you can take your fiat and exchange it for physical at a particular price, with a willing seller and a willing buyer at that price, then that is the "fiat value" at that moment for that/those particular ounce(s) of metal.

Like Bullionaire below, I'm glad I stocked up on Krugerrands back in the later part of '99. To me this is not a "one or the other" proposition, but more a matter of convenience in handling and storage, but I am involved and have no complaints on either the gold or silver side of the market. If you feel either gold or silver are dramatically underpriced at current levels, you'd be at much more of an advantage to be buying than sitting around complaining that the price is "too low". The old adage "Be careful what you wish for" comes to mind. How many of us would still be buyers at $10 - $20 - $30 levels in silver ? Would we still be buying as much ? Are we buying as much now as we were at $4 or $4.25 ? Is this a good description of supply/demand fundamentals ?

Just something to think about.

Re: grading
 

For manipulation to occur, a motive has to be in place. In markets money is made by foreknowledge. No one with the means and power to manipulate markets is going to waste his efforts investing in a stock or commodity and THEN trying to make it go up.
Since you understand that manipulation is about foreknowledge, you also understand that if making money is the motive, IT DOESN'T MATTER WHETHER IT GOES UP OR DOWN, just that you KNOW WHICH WAY IT'S GOING.
But silver doesn't go up and down in any proportion or speed to be of interest to manipulators with foreknowledge-profit motive, does it? Why do I say this? Because silver in not manipulated up and down, it is only manipulated down....a fact that demonstrates that silver is not being manipulated so shorts and longs can make money on their foreknowledge....it proves that THERE IS A DIFFERENT MOTIVE OTHER THAN PROFITING FROM FOREKNOWLEDGE.
That motive comes from the fiat regime. What do you think happens when PM's leap up in value? It has everyone saying "something is wrong with PAPER money". The fiat regime has tremendous wealth and power due to the ability to print money out of thin air. They are not about to let PM investors screw this all up for them.
So they SUPPRESS PM prices. This is what keeps fiat money above water.
But they will not be able to do this much longer, especially with silver. They have plenty of gold to throw on the market when needed to buoy their paper, but they can't do this with silver.
Sorry for yelling, but I have explained this many times and it seems to go over everyone's heads. Manipulation has been discussed many times on this forum and you really irked me when you implied that all the premises of these arguments was:

Re: grading
 

Manipulation has been discussed many times on this forum and you really irked me when you implied that all the premises of these arguments was:

"It's funny that whenever a particular market fails to do what it "should do" or is "expected" to do, we yell "MANIPULATION !!!!".

Sorry for the irk, but my point is that markets tend to do exactly what they SHOULD be doing under the combined circumstances. I think it is Butler who uses the word "controlled" rather than "manipulated", and I agree, as you apparently do also.

As you say, "market movement" is the only prerequisite to making money either on the up side or down side. But while the players have to keep things "moving" (there are limits to how high and how low, so "manipulation" has to occur in both directions to some extent - shorts are not always shorts, longs are not always longs), fiat producers are walking a very fine line between reality and perception. For them, it's all a game of perception, or more accurately, INDUCED public perception that the dollar has some self-contained, inherent value in and of itself. In this sense, "manipulation" or induced public perception applies to an awful lot of things in this world beyond precious metals. How many truly believe the inflation numbers ? Keeping the fiat scheme alive and (not so) well goes far beyond just PMs.

Motives really depend on who we are dealing with, whether traders, who are in fact chasing the dollar profits, or those (fiat royalty) trying to keep their part of the farce from taking a serious dive in public confidence.....different motives at different levels. Dollar confidence goes far beyond just what the PMs do in comparison, as they are just one small blip on the radar screen.

In the end, it's all a game of perception. When enough people finally figure out what is "really going on", we'll be comparing a mostly (more) worthless dollar to something that still retains perceived value (PMs), while others will have their own "standard" of comparison.

You state that ...."No one with the means and power to manipulate markets is going to waste his efforts investing in a stock or commodity and THEN trying to make it go up"....

To that I will only add, nor would such a person likely be involved in stocks or commodities in the first place, since they have the keys to the printing presses, the easiest way to "make money" (why bother with any actual "work").....TIC of course. But you have to "own it or control it" BEFORE you can profit from it.

If you read EagleRanch, take into consideration Tai's post # 14005 "Turkeys don't fly" in which he makes some very good (and plausible) points regarding silver manipulation:

-------------------------------

I believe we can -and should- dismiss COMEX from any analysis of Physical -vs-
Imminent Shortage Myth. For the reasons (I tried to) explain. Those Paper Silver
contracts are balanced Long and Short, and by month end most all of them are
re-balanced (closed/offset) simply by reversing their positions. And as I tried
to explain, very little Physical ever leaves COMEX for various reasons that make
alot of (common) sense to me. But nobody else, apparently.

The one thing I keep harping about is the non-event of any Physical Silver in an
imminent shortage. Gimmeee a break. We've been told that for 47 years, and most
recently for 19 years, and it never happens. Does nobody care to know why.?.

The latest thingy making the rounds is the SUA "opposition" to a Silver ETF. All
say it's because the SUA is scared to death it would cause, or trigger, massive
Silver Shortages. There are two (at least) alternate (Tai) ways to analyze that:

(1) ETF Brer' Rabbit trick by the SUA: Please don't throw me in the Briar Patch,
when infact it's exactly what they want: more Silver consumptution (hoarding) by
any entity, to keep the price UP, since under this scenario, there is soooo much
Silver out there, prices would collapse to $3/Oz if it all came to market. This
sounds strange to many reading it, but try to assume for a minute that various
entities have huge Silver hoards, and infact self-created an SUA as a strawhorse
to pretend or add credance to the Silver Shortage Myth for so many years. Under
this scenario it takes all they can do, what everyone else sees as manipulatuion
to infact manipulate the price UP. Afterall, doesn't it always tumble when it
barely makes it to $8. Whew, it's difficult for them to get it that HIGH.

-or-

(2) They don't want an ETF gobbling Silver, in ANY amount, since it would tend
to increase prices the Users need to pay for the Physical. But do they fear it
would cause the ballyhooed Imminent Shortage Catastrophy.?. Hardly. Just trying
to exclude some competition for normal quantities that flow thru these markets.

There's another point I'd like to throw out into the playing field here:

You said you feel Silver has risen in price the past few years. I beg to differ.
Lets say it's at $8 in 2005 U$ Dollars. What would the value of $8 U$D be if you
ramp it back to 1980 Dollars.?.

I couldn't find a 2005 conversion, but here's one for 2003 -vs- 1980, good enuf:

http://eh.net/hmit/compare/

In 1980, $8.00 from 2003 is worth:

$3.58 using the Consumer Price Index
$4.07 using the GDP deflator
$3.54 using the unskilled wage
$2.59 using the GDP per capita
$2.03 using the relative share of GDP

Anyway, my point is if you thinks Silver has gone UP, you are probably mistaken.

Which begs the question: Why has Silver's price CONTINUED to decline for over
4000 years, unless it is in adequate abundance.?. ie: markets at equilibrium.

Which begs an answer, which will NOT be a Silver Shortage Myth.

Tai"

--------------------------

There is alot more out there to be taken into consideration than just that which we are fed by the silver gurus writing under the guise of selling metals for their bankrollers, and it can be dangerous to the finances just taking everything at face value without digging deeper into the facts. Too many "what ifs" that remain to be unanswered, and too many chips that nobody seems to be able to stack straight to come to reasonable and accurate conclusions. How many years now has silver been "going to the moon", and where do we stand today ? How obvious was the lag between the rise in gold vs. the "catch-up" work done years later in silver since 1999 ? "Shortage", "all used up", etc. is a great marketing tool, but like the sibling that walks around the yard talking to all the invisible people, something "just ain't right".

Could it possibly be that the gurus are just WRONG, or at best very INCOMPLETE when it comes to the real numbers ? That's something we each have to consider for ourselves.

Re: grading
 

SOME
GREAT
THOUGHTS AuNuggets, thank you...

Re: grading
 

If mass media and the fiat regime were not the same entity, this would not be possible. With the power of suggestion, the dollar could be dismantled in a few weeks. Closely examine what the ingredients are.....what tools are needed to keep the illusion alive? If metals went "to da moon", it would greatly undermine the illusion. The fiat meisters know that. Also, control over media and academia control is needed to bolster the fiat regime. These are the main ingredients, don't you agree? Connect the dots.
I strongly disagree. The psychological response to a PM spike is a closely guarded secret. When PM's move up, it leads to much chatter among the masses about "paper money" and this can not be tolerated if the fiat regime is to stay in command. Illusions need to be closely and constantly guarded. This is why they have put in place a system whereby they can control the PM prices doing paper trades. the Comex is just an extension of the fiat regime.
After all, AuNuggets, why would anyone be a Comex player unless he was an insider? Nobody on this entire forum is a Comex player. Do you really think an outsider would use the comex to buy and hold paper silver? Not many well funded outsiders are that stupid and none are stupid enough to actually "play" the comex...not having the inside information. The Comex is an illusion just like fiat, unfortunately almost everyone looks at that bogus Kitco window and thinks "that's the price of silver". As that illusion weakens, prices of physical silver at independent dealers will separate from the comex and comex will be forced to follow it to maintain the illusion of legitimacy. So who would have the motive to bankroll Butler for example? There is no profit in promoting bullishness about silver unless one holds a lot of physical silver.......something which is against the religion of insiders. Mass media has had plenty of opportunities to refute Butler. We have hardly heard a peep out of them and what little they say is easily demolished. You can't deny that mass media as a whole is on the side of fiat and opposed to PM's. They throw us a bone once in a while, just enough to appear objective.....why don't they use their resources to take Butler apart, piece by piece? Because they can't and would rather pretend he doesn't exist.
They are more interested in linking PM's to "terrorists" and "drug money laundering" that actually debating Butler logically.

Re: grading
 

As I've stated here and elsewhere many times in the past, the best way to remain "irrefutable" is to simply make statements or claims that are impossible (or nearly so) to prove or disprove. This is exactly what Butler and others have done and continue to do regarding the quantities of silver that are actually "above ground" and "available" (at whatever price) IN TOTAL beyond just "official supplies"....... or "known supplies" as they are usually referred. Those UNKNOWN supplies are the real kicker.

Who would have the motive to bankroll Butler ? Um, perhaps the company that DOES bankroll Butler ? Not sure of the relationship status between Ted and Investment Rarities at this point in time, but that is precisely where it started.....on the back of a high-end retailer hawking investments in silver.

I agree with most of your points however on the mass media and overall "information control" that centers with the fiat regime. But let's face it, gold and silver to most of the population is a non-event and of little to no interest, with the REAL connection between the PMs and fiat seldom understood by the average Joe Sixpack who is more interested in evening sit-coms, sports, new widgets and vehicles, and seldom beyond investments in stocks or real estate. Give out 1000 Krugerrands to 1000 average individuals on the street, and it's a good bet that within the week, the majority will have been rushed to the local pawn shop in exchange for fiat that they comprehend as "more usable". It's a sad fact that more people would choose fiat "money" over gold or silver, though most don't have a clue that the definition fits the later more accurately than the former ...... back to the problem of fabricated confidence in perceived "value".

......"If metals went "to da moon", it would greatly undermine the illusion"......

Yes, or at least "threaten" to undermine it which scares the hell out of the fiat-meisters. But the same could apply to many things other than PMs........housing, cars, groceries, utilities, energy, raw land, collectibles, other commodities, you name it. You may strongly disagree that PMs are but one cog in the financial gear wheel when it comes to dollar confidence, but do you not agree that if and when there is a SPIKE in ANYTHING, the same kind of concerns soon filter down to the question WHY, eventually leading down the paper trail of inflated currency supplies ? As some argue that our dollar should be backed by gold, I argue that there are far more assets involved than just a metal. We often see mention that the U.S. dollar is worth X percent of an ounce of gold based on total gold holdings divided by total dollars. The big mistake, which should be obvious to anyone, is that our country holds many assets far in excess of just gold if asset backing is to be used as an accurate criteria. The same applies, in my opinion, to this discussion in that there are many things beyond PMs that are held in value by the populace as a whole. "Value", "wealth", or "worth" does not begin and end with gold and silver, those being just two of the many possibilities. Sometimes we need to stop and take a good look outside our own boxes and preferences in asset holdings or investment choices and realize that there is a whole other world out there. Sure, gold and silver are (to some) and have been in the past more closely linked to "money" as a trade basis or standard, and that tends to set them off in ways that you mention as far as "relative movement" to dollar confidence, but they are far from the only such indicator. And that was really my point.

As far as the Kitco window "being the price of silver", as long as you can exchange your fiat in a desired amount for the physical, then it IS the price of silver. Wishful thinking otherwise, that the physical metal is somehow more valuable (in fiat) than what is being offered for IN FIAT is just a self-delusional exercise in futility. Point being, if you can't actually trade the fiat for the physical metal, it DOESN'T MATTER what the paper price is. I don't understand why this simple concept is beyond the comprehension of so many silver buyers/investors/accumulators. Silver is silver, paper is paper, no matter what you may choose to call it or how their prices compare. This is like trying to control the price of new cars by trading them on paper. When the time comes to buy an actual CAR, and not a paper promise for one, then THAT is the price of CARS. If it happens to match the "paper price", all good and well. But if the car is unavailable IN REALITY at that price, then the "paper price" is a moot point. COMEX may in fact be an illusion as you state, but as long as I can take the COMEX silver price and trade THAT AMOUNT of fiat for physical silver, that is close enough to reality for me. I find it hard to fathom that if the players on COMEX collectively decided to crash the price of silver to 50 cents per ounce on paper that the "supply" would not dry up overnight, if not sooner, or that if they collectively decided to spike it to $25 per ounce, there would not be an immediate drop in "demand", all other things being equal. Of course, you would have the usual unloaders on the crash, and the usual "gotta catch the train" buyers on the spike, but those are really market instability (mania or reverse mania) issues rather than true fundamental issues, much like the Hunt years and the subsequent corrections involved.

Do I really think an outsider would use COMEX to buy and hold paper silver ? Perhaps if the INTENTION were to take actual physical delivery at some point in time, though I really see no advantage to COMEX over the corner pawn shop to buying physical (if the quantities needed are available). Paper is still paper, physical still physical, representations of wealth in comparison to the real thing. A not so good analogy might be the difference in spending cash currency at the local grocer in comparison to writing checks all over town. As most merchants can tell you, just because you can write a check does not mean there is anything backing it to make it "good". That concept goes much deeper when dealing with currencies and checks, because both are basically worthless "illusions", so maybe we should use gold or silver coins in place of the currency. Novel idea, eh ? ;)

Re: grading
 

I have never heard of anyone buying silver bullion from them. I don't think they sell enough to justify bankrolling Butler. I don't think they pay him at all, they just like what he says. Tulving and APMEX sell tons of silver and they don't have a resident silver analyst pumping up the market. Besides, if Butler was paid by IR to pump up silver, their competitors would make just as much off of Butler as IR. It does not add up. And this is precisely because of information control. The fact that there is so much information control regarding monetary systems reveals that there is something much larger than a few profiteering independent players. I don't understand why the recognition of media control does not trigger further investigation on your part. Obviously the stakes are high for there to be collusion in mass media and academia to protect the fiat regime from scrutiny. It is easy for the talking heads to explain away a drastic price increase in steel or oil, but PM prices send a special message...one that must be avoided at all costs. Certainly if everything jumps up in price it makes fiat suspect, but with control of the media they can shift the price increases around and explain them away. I told my girlfriend a year ago that the dollar had lost 40% of it's value against the euro. She said so what, groceries are still the same so it must not be the dollar. "Spot" price is real only because everyone else thinks it's real. If it did not exist, if there were no "market makers" in PM's and the prices were just what anyone would sell them for and buy them for...like the car analogy below....then they would be much higher in price. That is a poor analogy. There are no "market makers" buying and selling ten times as many paper cars as there are real cars. Now you understand the function of "market makers". I never stated that the comex players has complete control. They have considerable influence, though. Not everything is black or white here. This is why so many of us love silver, we know their control is slipping. Exactly...there is no advantage to participating at Comex when you can go to the local pawn shop. Comex is structured to exclude outsiders! The only reason to be in the comex is you have inside information or your objective is price suppression. There may indeed have been some legitimate investors at comex that did not have time just then to acquire physical and intended to demand delivery later, but no one on this forum has ever mentioned such a person so they are extremely rare.

Re: grading
 

Butler is/was in fact bankrolled by IR, that is common knowledge in the industry. I believe Butler himself mentioned it several times in earlier writings as well as by JC on his website. Much of his "analysis" began (or at least became wider spread) as IR PR. They supposedly are a major retailer, though after listening to some of the marketing hype and then being quoted 90% bag prices at over $1000 each the going market rate, it would take some serious gullibility to go that route. I've used Tulving and Dillon Gage almost exclusively for the last several years, with an eye now on APMEX being located closer to home.

As for mass media, when you own the printing presses, it's not at all difficult to own whatever else or "whom" you desire, including the actual media and/or regulatory agencies making the "rules" to live by. No sense shooting oneself in the proverbial foot.

Of course there are no "market makers" in automobiles as far as my simplified analogy goes, but I think you get my basic premise where pricing is concerned. Like anything else, if there is no standard of referrence, then there is increasing difficulty in any market working at all beyond the barter stage. The same would apply to metals sans a daily "spot" quote.

I don't think we are so far apart on our thinking and beliefs on these issues, other than perhaps my suspicions and doubts as to the "silver story" being anything close to complete. Whether there is as great a degree of "control" as many claim, and whether "they" are losing it will be borne out in time for all to know the full effect it may have on the market. Those of us who have been reading "The Silver Story" since Jerome Smith days and before have been through the hoops, hype, and hysteria more times than we care to remember, and have heard the same worn out claims being made, refuted, resurected, ad nauseum for over 40 years, with reality setting in every time we look at the situation as it stands today. Where we go from here is anyone's guess........back to the future perhaps ? In any event, I've yet to meet a "long-term buy and hold silver investor" who would admit it, or one who would actually try to convince anyone they had actually made any gains in the process. Not that I don't trade my fair share by any means, with "trade" being the key.

Thanks for the exchange. I've enjoyed it.

Re: grading
 

Way back around 2001 my gold/silver store fellow talked me into 21 separate loose and raw $20 Saint Gaudens, and 11 more - raw $20 Liberties. I paid about $310 to $330 each. Recently to break-up the boredom of watching the sideways GOLD bullion action I joined PCGS membership club (although NGC is cheaper!) and started to send in the 31 coins. All my Saints were bought as MS60s - all 21. The Liberties were bought as AU55 to AU58s. Seemed they used those coins as currency: while the Saints went to Europe to keep them away from FDR, just kidding, the Europeans like the real thing not some paper promise.
That is until they REALLY went up in price - then guess what they come back like a long lost relative looking for their inheritance.


To date:

PCGS has graded those Saints as:
5-MS62s; 4-MS63s; 1-MS64 - in one batch
4-MS63s; 4-MS64s; 2-MS65s - in another batch

Retail on 62s are around $760; 63s are $860; 64s are $1000; and 65s are $1650 - the years were 1908; 1922, 1923, 1924, 1925, 1926, 1927 - all the ones that are going up.

Since I paid about $320 average they were ALL a rather good investment to date.

The Liberties are coming back AU58s the first group of five. Again that's about $700 each retail - more than doubling. And when they slabbed up in PCGS or NGC they are actually like a form of guaranted currency - and they box up real neat and nice.

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They are JUST another way to hold what I call semi-collectable gold bullion coins. Not the REAL rare stuff (I do have some 20 different numbered PCGS coins in Saints of the 50 some varieties) but fun to build a year date collection. Especially after you have a number of gold bullion coins. Put a max of 10% of your gold holding bullion into gold collectable coins for fun. I find that about 80% to 90% of the people holding the $20 gold coins of USA yesteryear are INVESTORS!

GUESS BECAUSE they are not making any more of them, NADA! And the coins have the ability (prior, anyway) to get about three to five times the spot if you are at MS65 plus status, that is.


DYODD - I just bought a proof set of 1986-2005 silver eagles for fun. I have 10 green boxes of the mint state already. Again, it's fun and they are really pretty.

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See the Double Eagle Gold Coins Book by Bowers and published via Whitman on Amazon - cheap assistance on collecting.

Re: grading
 

Absolutely a great point. I've stated many times here before that the dollar is fully redeemable in gold or silver. I can take $460 dollars and redeem them for one ounce of gold at my local coin dealer, or take $7 and redeem them for one ounce of silver. What difference does it make if you can exchange dollars at a Federal Reserve Bank or a private business as long as you can get gold or silver for dollars? The point is that anyone can fully redeem as many dollars as they want for PM. Thus the dollar is fully backed by gold and silver and has REAL value by the PM-lovers own definition. The only difference is that the gold or silver content of the dollar is not set in stone and can rise or fall. That gives much needed flexibility to the dollar and provides the solution to the gold standard's greatest fault--an inability to quickly adjust to market and economic conditions.

Re: grading
 

Another one who doesn't understand what "redeemable" means.

re�deem ( P ) Pronunciation Key (r-dm)
tr.v. re�deemed, re�deem�ing, re�deems
To recover ownership of by paying a specified sum.
To pay off (a promissory note, for example).
To turn in (coupons, for example) and receive something in exchange.
To fulfill (a pledge, for example).
To convert into cash: redeem stocks.
To set free; rescue or ransom.
To save from a state of sinfulness and its consequences. See Synonyms at save1.
To make up for: The low price of the clothes dryer redeems its lack of special features.
To restore the honor, worth, or reputation of: You botched the last job but can redeem yourself on this one.

Look at the first definition: "recover ownership of by paying a specified sum." If you sell gold at $300 an ounce and buy it back at $400 a year later you have not recovered ownership by paying a specified sum, you have recovered ownership by paying a much higher sum because FRN's are NOT REDEEMABLE.
The price of PM's are NOT SPECIFIED on a dollar bill.

If the dollar continues to decline to the point where a dozen eggs cost $200 and an ounce of gold costs $80000 some of you guys will still be echoing that "The dollar is redeemable" because you can "redeem" $80000 for an ounce of gold.