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Silverity | 06-06-2006 07:12 AM
So how much 90% junk silver is out there? http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=20360 and scroll down to "uncounted silver", there was also a previous article here So he reckons there could be as much as 900 million ounces of silver American coins out there waiting to flood the market. No doubt the number is huge but I would make two observations. First, he only gives 25% as being melted. Going by Merton's book "The Great Silver Melt", it must be at least 50% and Merton's book was written before the 1979-1980 melt mania. Secondly, we shouldn't assume these things are held in 1000 coin bags everywhere. They could be held in small handfuls spread across 200 million americans. The more diffuse the source, the higher the price has to be to get it to market. Still, we shouldn't just look at the COMEX when supply is discussed.

AuNuggets | 06-06-2006 09:47 AM
Re: So how much 90% junk silver is out there? ........"Still, we shouldn't just look at the COMEX when supply is discussed. "........ That pretty much says it all. Just watching COMEX is like trying to determine tide cycles by watching a bucket of water...... or determining gasoline supplies by watching one gas station. Several years ago I took a copy of the "Redbook" mintage figures for all modern silver coinage (Mercury and Roosevelt dimes, Standing and Washington quarters, Franklin and Kennedy halves), and the total dollar amount was staggering. Even if only 20% remained, the numbers are HUGE ! You would be hard-pressed to find anyone older than 50 who didn't save some silver coinage during their lifetime. Just suppose those 200 million hold an "average" of only $2.50 each worth of silver coins, we're talking half a BILLION $$, or HALF A MILLION BAGS of modern junk silver. That's a bunch of coins............ The real problem though, settles back to "what if" and "how much" is still in existance. As TB and others have shown over and over again, the REAL NUMBERS will always remain unknowns in the equation. Besides the coins, we have to add all of the earlier "numismatic" coins, flatware, jewelry, etc. etc.......... all of those staggering "unofficial" numbers that the gurus so often choose to ignore. A good story is a good story, especially when it is devised to mislead on the basis that it cannot possibly be proven otherwise. :bath:

Silverity | 06-06-2006 09:58 AM
Re: So how much 90% junk silver is out there? Quote:
Originally Posted by AuNuggets ........"Still, we shouldn't just look at the COMEX when supply is discussed. "........ That pretty much says it all. Just watching COMEX is like trying to determine tide cycles by watching a bucket of water...... or determining gasoline supplies by watching one gas station. Several years ago I took a copy of the "Redbook" mintage figures for all modern silver coinage (Mercury and Roosevelt dimes, Standing and Washington quarters, Franklin and Kennedy halves), and the total dollar amount was staggering. Even if only 20% remained, the numbers are HUGE ! You would be hard-pressed to find anyone older than 50 who didn't save some silver coinage during their lifetime. Just suppose those 200 million hold an "average" of only $2.50 each worth of silver coins, we're talking half a BILLION $$, or HALF A MILLION BAGS of modern junk silver. That's a bunch of coins............ The real problem though, settles back to "what if" and "how much" is still in existance. As TB and others have shown over and over again, the REAL NUMBERS will always remain unknowns in the equation. Besides the coins, we have to add all of the earlier "numismatic" coins, flatware, jewelry, etc. etc.......... all of those staggering "unofficial" numbers that the gurus so often choose to ignore. A good story is a good story, especially when it is devised to mislead on the basis that it cannot possibly be proven otherwise. :bath:
Indeed, and each of these groupings has its tipping point for selling, mainly influenced by original price to owner and sentimental value. The Charles River study is probably still the definitive document on this aspect of silver supply. Going back to the 90% coins, the degree of diffuseness of these coins still holds. If each adult american held $2.50 worth (was that silver or face value?) and silver made this go to $25, how many would make the trip to redeem $25? Not many I suspect. If you still had to do a round trip of 100 miles or more to do this, its not worth the time and expense of getting there. So, I suspect there has to be some kind of minimum holding which begins to make the trip worthwhile. Perhaps a 100 quarters or 50 half dollars? Who knows?

RiverRat | 06-06-2006 11:11 AM
Re: So how much 90% junk silver is out there? :musicus: IMHO: In 79-80 the bulk of 90% silver was coming into the coin shops and local buyers of gold in huge amounts. I would say the average cutomer selling 90% silver was unloading 10 to 20 lbs per transaction. I saw more than one instance of customers unloading 100 lbs or more. Granted...........the big sellers were hard core hoarders who cashed out near the top...........but one coin dealer close to me was buying as much as 2500 lbs per day every day,six days per week. That's roughly 7.5 tons per week for just one dealer !! Yes,he had that kind of cash flow.This was peanuts compared to the big buyers in NY and CA. Multiply those kind of numbers on a 50 state basis and subtract them from the unknown theroretical remaining silver coinage hoarded up by JSP here in 2006 and then do the math............ The silver melt of 79-80 was much larger than most experts agree on. It blew numismatic mintage figures to crap.........no one really knows just how much went to the refiners. It would be interesting to find out from the refiners themselves just what their tonnage output actually was from 1978 to 1981.......the numbers would either boggle your mind or we are being merrily led down the yellow brick road..........which one is the true story,is a shot in the dark........... As I stated on a past post..............Silver dried up so fast from general circulation after 1965 that it was an extreme rarity to actually see a 90%silver coin anywhere after about 1968. The banks confiscated every piece they could get their grimy little hands on and shipped it back to the treasury department like they were under wartime presidential command........they did a very good job.

goldminer | 06-07-2006 06:41 AM
Re: So how much 90% junk silver is out there? "...Going back to the 90% coins, the degree of diffuseness of these coins still holds. If each adult american held $2.50 worth (was that silver or face value?) and silver made this go to $25, how many would make the trip to redeem $25? Not many I suspect. If you still had to do a round trip of 100 miles or more to do this, its not worth the time and expense of getting there..." I bet that when the time comes all kinds of local newspaper adds and other advertisements will surface from jewelry stores, pawn shops, and a thousand other small-time wanna-make-a-buck dealers who will buy the area $25.00 worth for (say) $20.00...and make a killing.

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