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cb&julie | 10-30-2006 10:41 AM
How much was actually melted down? Since the end of silver coins in '65 and '71, how much has been recycled via the smelter? How much is left and how much (if divided evenly) could each American have?

Anty Ep | 10-30-2006 11:06 AM
Re: How much was actually melted down? well you would have to start by finding out about exactly how people can recycle junk silver scrap. I suggest as you investigate you post your results here so we can share benefit from your efforts. and in advance I thank you as I have often wondered this myself. once you had the process figured out then you would need to possibly hit some industry publications to find out industry figures and then look for percentages of what scrap was what. I dont know if such figures are collected or not, so I look forward to learning more of this.

RiverRat | 10-30-2006 11:28 AM
Re: How much was actually melted down? :wazzup_sg The general concensus among some really BIG coin dealers I have spoken with is around a 50% loss. They say cut the mintage figures in half for all silver coins and you will be pretty near the actual remaining coins that weren't melted. I tend to agree...the smelters are not talking and refuse to actually put a ballpark estimate on it...so that leads me to believe the meltdown in sheer tons was much higher than anybody cares to admit,or can prove. In reality,I doubt if anyone will ever step forward and put a solid number on it...1980-1981 was a silver circus out of control. I was there...it was pure insanity as I recall. :D :D

eat_beef | 10-30-2006 12:27 PM
Re: How much was actually melted down? I agree with RR, you're never going to get an accurate number. It's not that someone is hiding it... (3 dots per the donkey) the data just doesn't exist. There's an article here @ GIM about how rare coins became common and vice versa because people hoarded the rare ones and all of the commons got melted. I'll try to find it.

eat_beef | 10-30-2006 12:36 PM
Re: How much was actually melted down? Found it: http://goldismoney.info/forums/showt...lt+common+rare

DrillAndFill | 10-30-2006 12:36 PM
Re: How much was actually melted down? I wrote a long back-of-the-cocktail-napkin post a few months ago, in response to an article that I thought was an overestimate. I deleted my post because I thought it was full of holes, and wanted to think some more. My argument was a contrast to the sort of argument given here, which seems optimistic. The key part of the article: It is beyond the scope of this paper to account for all the silver coins produced globally that might still be hoarded by individuals purely for their bullion value. Since silver was widely used for making coinage by dozens of countries, including notably the U.S., Mexico, Canada, the U.K., Austria, Australia, the Bahamas, Belgium, France, Isle of Man, Italy, Switzerland, and others, assembling mintage records of all minted silver coins would be a daunting task. Yet one can hope that some intrepid researcher with tons of time and the drive to accomplish the tedious work required will attempt it some day. For now, since mintage records for U.S. coins are readily available and easily assembled (see mintage figures and calculations), and since the U.S. was by far the largest source of modern silver coinage (after 1900), we can at least establish how much silver there was to begin with from that one country. If we assume that any coin minted before 1900 is unlikely to be traded in so-called “junk” silver bags, but rather the surviving pre-1900 coins are tucked away in coin collections, and if we assume that beginning with coins dated 1900 going forward an increasing percentage of the minted coins would be contained in those bags. And if we assume that after World War Two, a large percentage of the circulated coins would still remain in the bags, because they are worth more in bullion value than to collectors. Then it just boils down to assigning various percentages to those limiters. As it turns out, the U.S. used 2,283,853,459 ounces of silver to make silver coins from 1900 to 1964 (source, U.S. Mintage Records, “A guidebook of United States Coins,” R. S. Yeoman). Call it roughly 2.3b ounces or a little over 71,000 tonnes. Interestingly, 551,888,075 ounces, or about 17,000 tonnes were used in the year 1964 alone. In other words nearly one-quarter of all the silver used by the U.S. for making coins from 1900 to 1964 was used in the last year of silver coinage. (Probably in anticipation of hoarding as the U.S. quit making silver coins). Also interesting, from the end of World War Two to 1964 the U.S. used 1,344,282,888 ounces or just under 42,000 tonnes of silver to make dimes, quarters and half dollars. So the period 1946-1964 accounts for about 59% of the total used since 1900. Taking a stab at assigning percentages to reduce the mintage figures into estimated amounts held is subjective at best, and just a guess, but here is one writer’s estimates: http://www.resourceinvestor.com/Medi...ver/period.png If the above estimates are anywhere close to reality, then there is something on the order of 900 million ounces of silver sitting in private hoards in cloth bags. That is the equivalent of about 1.3 million of those bags, or about one bag (715 ounces) for each 240 U.S. citizens. Intuitively that sounds about right having been involved with the rare coin and bullion industry for nearly three decades, but the invitation goes out to other analysts to take this work and see what they come up with. It is by no means meant to be a definitive work, but just a way to roughly quantify how much bullion is going uncounted. I think they're quoting "one writer" just for the sake of throwing some numbers into the air, but their numbers are useful as a starting point. I'll add to this thread later in the day, when I am not busy with real life, but for now I'll just say that I'm sceptical that more than 150 million ounces worth of 90% remains. Industrial users certainly melted plenty of 90% in the mid-1960s, and then there were huge melt-downs in 1980-81 and after the y2k bust, when survivalists sold off their bags at steep discounts. Keep in mind that anyone who stored this stuff between 1964 and 1971, and also between 1982 and 2000, was losing lots of money doing so. That doesn't mean it wasn't a good long-term bet, but there were some stretches where it must have been discouraging to hoard junk silver.

blueice | 10-30-2006 12:50 PM
Re: How much was actually melted down? Excelllent post, Master Drill.

goldminer | 10-31-2006 06:49 PM
Re: How much was actually melted down? Indeed. Thank you.

Tn...Andy | 10-31-2006 07:49 PM
Re: How much was actually melted down? Quote:
Originally Posted by DrillAndFill (Post 401025) I wrote a long back-of-the-cocktail-napkin post a few months ago, in response to an article that I thought was an overestimate. I deleted my post because I thought it was full of holes, and wanted to think some more.
I remember your post, and was sorry you deleted it....I believe it was well thunk out....had I known you'd delete it, I'd have made a copy ! Bring it back, man.....

RiverRat | 11-01-2006 04:32 AM
Re: How much was actually melted down? :cool1: Good post Drill...mighty fine ciphering Jethro :applause_ The 80-81 great meltdown was a lot bigger than most people realize. A very old friend of mine (deceased) ran a small coinshop at the time the silver market went crazy. On an off day...say Monday or Tuesday his average daily buy of silver was $150K. One Saturday he topped a million in silver purchases. This went on for about 18 months straight as I recall. Take note....this guy was a very small local operator. I repeat....very small. A long time coin dealer friend of his in New York was averaging a million a day,six days per week.My friend considered himself an insignificant small time dealer. Do the math and multiply by fifty states...then tell me 75% of all existing silver coinage is still socked away in JSPs' closet gathering dust. No way amigos...as I said...cut every mintage figure in half, and even that may be too conservative. Best guess ? 35% remains of all US minted silver coinage.It may still exist...somewhere. :cool1: :cool1:

eat_beef | 11-01-2006 08:56 AM
Re: How much was actually melted down? RR- While I agree with your point in general, and your 35% figure sounds reasonable to me, you overlook the fact that all the silver your friend bought was not melted. A lot of it prolly sold back to the public, and even the silver that sold to a smelter wasn't necessarily melted; the smelters sold lots of bags back out to fill investor demand. I personally know several individuals who bought bags at the peak and then locked them away in SD boxes, not willing to admit that their money was lost. BTW,This will provide a significant overhang to the market above 20frns.

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