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- - M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best (http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=291428)

wille | 08-13-2008 12:44 PM
M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Deflation is coming upon the world financial world and pms have maxed out in this regard. i wouldnt get my hopes up of 100$ silver very soon if another equation(s) dont get in the mix fast. I may believe that a slow down accross the board including pms is a real possibiblity. Maybe the wishfull thinking needs to be reined up. It may be the wise thing to do.

wille | 08-13-2008 01:26 PM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Dont get excited we'll be in the 7's soon-----:rant:

igorthesmall | 08-13-2008 01:51 PM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Deflation has been coming "soon" for the last 7 or 8 years. Every time commodity prices drop a little bit, all the deflationistas come out of the woodwork and say, "Look, I told you deflation was coming". Of course, each time, prices are higher than they were the last time the "warning" came. I expect many more years of inflation, and many more years of deflation warnings from the deflationistas. Maybe ten years or so from now, when we are done with this currency cycle of inflation, we will have some deflation, but its certainly a long way off. Being 10+ years early to the party is the same as being dead wrong.

Cassius | 08-13-2008 01:57 PM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best M1 only includes physical currency in circulation plus checking accounts. To include things like savings account, money market funds, time deposits over certain amounts (like CDs larger than X dollars), you have to look at M2 and M3. Even though M1 has been decreasing recently, M2 and especially M3 have continued their rapid increase. To look at the total amount of dollars in the economy, which is what determines prices (inflation or deflation), you MUST look at M3 to get a complete picture.

wille | 08-13-2008 02:13 PM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Well Im not an economist nor are you I assume. M1 is OUR WORLD. Talk about M3 is 10 years out-- but the real world is telling us that money creation is flat shorterm, (dont mention credit) 3 years forward is deflationary.

Gcubed | 08-13-2008 02:19 PM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Quote:
Originally Posted by wille (Post 1236902) Well Im not an economist nor are you I assume. M1 is OUR WORLD. Talk about M3 is 10 years out-- but the real world is telling us that money creation is flat shorterm, (dont mention credit) 3 years forward is deflationary.
Sounds like you'd better liquidate. :smokin:

wille | 08-13-2008 02:25 PM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Quote:
Originally Posted by Gcubed (Post 1236910) Sounds like you'd better liquidate. :smokin:
No, no liquidation just no flat buys for now. Like SKF and the puts still. :smokin:

igorthesmall | 08-13-2008 02:28 PM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Quote:
Originally Posted by wille (Post 1236902) Well Im not an economist nor are you I assume. M1 is OUR WORLD. Talk about M3 is 10 years out-- but the real world is telling us that money creation is flat shorterm, (dont mention credit) 3 years forward is deflationary.
Well, I do have a degree in economics, and I can tell you that M1 and M3 have nothing to do with short or long term. If M1 is decreasing and M3 is increasing, that is textbook inflation. Think about it like this, if the government took $20 in physical currency from every person in the US, but gave them a money market account with 20 million dollars in it, you would see falling M1 and rising M3. Obviously you would want to convert your FRNs to an inflation hedge at that point.

wille | 08-13-2008 02:37 PM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Quote:
Originally Posted by igorthesmall (Post 1236926) Well, I do have a degree in economics, and I can tell you that M1 and M3 have nothing to do with short or long term. If M1 is decreasing and M3 is increasing, that is textbook inflation. Think about it like this, if the government took $20 in physical currency from every person in the US, but gave them a money market account with 20 million dollars in it, you would see falling M1 and rising M3. Obviously you would want to convert your FRNs to an inflation hedge at that point.
Are You suggesting simple bank loan-out based rational rates?

Victor | 08-13-2008 02:53 PM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Quote:
Originally Posted by wille (Post 1236766) Deflation is coming upon the world financial world and pms have maxed out in this regard. i wouldnt get my hopes up of 100$ silver very soon if another equation(s) dont get in the mix fast. I may believe that a slow down accross the board including pms is a real possibiblity. Maybe the wishfull thinking needs to be reined up. It may be the wise thing to do.
Unless you got in the metals at the 30 year lows....you better sell because otherwise you are going to get crushed on your investment. Cash is king in deflation period.....sell now before it's too late.

igorthesmall | 08-13-2008 03:34 PM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor (Post 1236968) Unless you got in the metals at the 30 year lows....you better sell because otherwise you are going to get crushed on your investment. Cash is king in deflation period.....sell now before it's too late.
You need to learn the difference between money and currency. One of them is cash, the other is not.

Cassius | 08-13-2008 03:41 PM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Quote:
Well Im not an economist nor are you I assume. M1 is OUR WORLD.
Do you have a savings account? Savings accounts are not included in M1 but are included in M2 and M3. That right there should prove to you that M1 is not the complete picture.

wille | 08-13-2008 03:47 PM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassius (Post 1237067) Do you have a savings account? Savings accounts are not included in M1 but are included in M2 and M3. That right there should prove to you that M1 is not the complete picture.
Passbooks are falling--- M1 is the target . Deflation and get out of the way.Gold and silver are only for support and wealth.

Gcubed | 08-13-2008 03:50 PM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassius (Post 1237067) Do you have a savings account? Savings accounts are not included in M1 but are included in M2 and M3. That right there should prove to you that M1 is not the complete picture.
Passbooks are demand deposits included in M1. Edit: I am wrong. I assumed passbooks to be demand deposits. I forgot about the small print that we ignore in the deposit agreement.

Cassius | 08-13-2008 03:54 PM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best What the hell are passbooks? I even tried googling and no luck. Some slang that I'm not aware of? Regardless, the money supply that is accounted for in M2 and M3 that is not accounted for in M1 is still money -- it can be spent, and when you have more dollars chasing the same amount of goods and services, prices go up. That is the textbook definition of inflation. To argue that deflation is occurring while M3 is growing at a much faster rate than M1 is declining, is to say that the money in M2 and M3 that is not in M1 _cannot_ be spent on goods and services. Is that what you are asserting? If so, that means you believe that people cannot cash in their savings accounts, cannot cash in their money market accounts, and cannot cash in large time-based deposits like CDs over a certain amount. That is patently false.

Gcubed | 08-13-2008 03:57 PM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassius (Post 1237085) What the hell are passbooks? I even tried googling and no luck. Some slang that I'm not aware of?
In the old days, savings account holders were issued a "passbook". Records for the account holder were kept within.

mozkill | 08-13-2008 04:08 PM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best im my opinion we are not just experiencing inflation. right now we are experiencing booming inflation 10%+ . this, combined with a stagnating economy and wages that aren't increasing (causing a supply shock), is in my opinion, 'textbook stagflation'.

rodin | 08-13-2008 05:57 PM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Quote:
Originally Posted by mozkill (Post 1237101) im my opinion we are not just experiencing inflation. right now we are experiencing booming inflation 10%+ . this, combined with a stagnating economy and wages that aren't increasing (causing a supply shock), is in my opinion, 'textbook stagflation'.
May I coin the term Hyperstagflation? Or has someone beat me to it? That is what is coming. Oh - and population reduction on a biblical scale

californiajeff | 08-13-2008 06:50 PM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Quote:
Originally Posted by wille (Post 1236902) Well Im not an economist nor are you I assume. M1 is OUR WORLD. Talk about M3 is 10 years out-- but the real world is telling us that money creation is flat shorterm, (dont mention credit) 3 years forward is deflationary.
Why would we listen to an economist? :D Aren't they the ones that got us into all this trouble?

californiajeff | 08-13-2008 07:03 PM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Quote:
Originally Posted by mozkill (Post 1237101) im my opinion we are not just experiencing inflation. right now we are experiencing booming inflation 10%+ . this, combined with a stagnating economy and wages that aren't increasing (causing a supply shock), is in my opinion, 'textbook stagflation'.
I think you hit it right on the head mozkill! :coolbeer:

Victor | 08-14-2008 08:23 AM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Quote:
Originally Posted by igorthesmall (Post 1237046) You need to learn the difference between money and currency. One of them is cash, the other is not.
It was a post made in jest.......:wink:

Silver Shield | 08-14-2008 09:27 AM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Wait until I finish emptying my digital frn's in my brokerage account to be only in physical...:wink:

igorthesmall | 08-14-2008 10:07 AM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor (Post 1238293) It was a post made in jest.......:wink:
Opps, sorry. :D

HistoryStudent | 08-15-2008 11:35 AM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best http://www.gold-eagle.com/research/ascanindx.html go here and read about GOLD in deflation via 14 articles! It's better then INFLATION! GOLD and Silver (read precious metals) JUST LOVE tremendous uncertainty and EXTREMES! Ever seen anybody more extreme than Obama/Osama or the FED right now BUYING up the nation?

khambi | 08-16-2008 12:11 AM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best $7.50 - $8 is da next stop...dflation that is

Matt-themaddog-Dollar | 08-16-2008 12:20 AM
Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best Dr. Willie, It seems that you must be a great student of deflation like Prof. Bernanke, whom you are of course friendly with from your days at Princeton. Don't you then remember how gold went up 75% during the great depression, and then went up another 20% during WWII?

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