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esoteric | 04-15-2009 06:23 AM
$20 Saints different date analysis Here is a decent write up that I found helpful on the dates available for the $20 piece. By Jim Fehr of North American Certified Trading Saint Gaudens Double EaglesThe most gifted designer in the history of U.S. coinage never lived to see his magnificent $20 gold coins enter circulation. Augustus Saint-Gaudens died on August 3rd, 1907, three months before his first pieces were struck. Saint-Gaudens� pupil Henry Hering and President Theodore Roosevelt were the two people most directly responsible for the completion of Saint- Gaudens work. Roosevelt himself chose the standing liberty obverse and flying eagle reverse for the new $20 gold piece from a group of designs submitted by Saint- Gaudens. Roosevelt also (amid extreme controversy over whether or not the motto �In God We Trust� should be included) ordered Mint Engraver Charles E. Barber to begin producing them. Augustus Saint Gaudens, 1905The high relief Saint is considered the most beautiful of all U.S. coins. There are two varieties - the flat rim and knife rim, with the flat rim being rarer. Both have the Roman numerals MCMVII in place of an Arabic numerical date (1907) and both have concave surfaces. Although surviving populations are high, only 11,250 high reliefs were minted. It is the only Saint actually designed by Saint- Gaudens - all others were designed and engraved by Barber based on his interpretation of Saint-Gaudens original high relief. Since PCGS and NGC started certifying them in 1986 and recording populations, there have been two revelations about the St. Gaudens double eagle series from a market standpoint. First, how common the common dates are. No one guessed that there were more than 200,000 Saints floating around in MS65 or higher condition. Or 350,000 MS64�s. Or 425,000 MS63�s. Market prices for common date Saints have adjusted accordingly over the past 20 years. But the better dates are much scarcer than realized. There are 52 dates in the series. 93% of the coins certified are one of 11 common dates, leaving only 7% of the coins to make up the other 41 dates. 80% of the dates are rare, yet because Saints are big, beautiful gold coins, many buyers overlook the numismatic potential inherent in better date Saints. What follows is a breakdown of the St. Gaudens series into six categories of rarity, with recommendations. Prices listed are approximations of actual acquisition cost. Populations are combined PCGS and NGC figures from the October 2007 census reports. Common dates 1908 no motto, 1923-D, 1924-P, 1925-P, 1926-P, 1927-P, 1928-P. All are recommended only in grades MS66 or higher. The 1908-P, 1924-P, and 1927-P each has a current PCGS and NGC population of over 25,000 pieces in MS65 (54,569 for the 1924- P) and over 50,000 in MS64 - too many for them to be rare enough to sustain their own demand except as Type coins. MS66 samples of any of the above dates cost $3,000 to $3,300 Slightly Better Dates 1911-D, 1914-D, 1914-S, 1915-S, 1916-S. These dates are recommended in grades MS65 or higher. The 1911-D, 1914-S and 1915- S are about ten times rarer than dates in the preceding group. Each of these dates have PCGS and NGC combined populations in the 3,000 area and are all available for about $2,000 in MS65 condition. The 1914-D and 1916-S are a bit tougher with a total PCGS and NGC population of 1,834 and 1,246 respectively. Either date runs $2,600 or so in MS65 and is twenty-five times rarer than a 1924-P or 1927-P. Four of theses dates I especially like in MS66. The 1914-D, 1914-S, 1915-S and 1916-S. All have PCGS and NGC combined populations of under 300 and the 1914-D is the toughest with just 73 coins graded MS66. It runs about $7,250 and the other three are running between $5,900 and $6,500 each. On average these four dates are thirty-four times rarer than the three most common dates St. Gaudens yet are available for just over two times the price of a common date MS66. Better dates. 1907-P High Relief, 1907-P Arabic Numerals, 1908- D no motto, 1908-D with motto, 1909-S, 1910-P, 1910-D, 1910-S, 1911- S, 1912-P, 1913-D, 1914-P, 1920-P, 1922-P, 1923-P. The three least expensive are the 1907-P Arabic, 1910-D and the 1922-P. 1907-P is not a low-pop. date but is a very popular first year of issue. It runs just under $2,000 in MS64 and $3,400 in MS65. 1910-D and 1922-P are around common date price in MS64 - about 1,350, but they are tougher in MS65 bringing about double common date MS65 prices. The 1908-D with motto, 1909-S, 1911-S, 1913-D, and 1923-P, are relatively inexpensive in MS64 but jump considerably in MS65. The combined PCGS and NGC MS65 populations run 400 to 600 pieces on each of these dates except for the 1908-D which is 315. In MS64 condition, most are available in the $1,400 to $2,000 area. In MS65 the 1909-S and 1913-D run about $5,000 to $5,250, the 1908-D, 1911-S and 1923-P cost between $4,400 and $4,900. The toughest of this better date group are the 1908- D no motto, 1910-P, 1910-S, and 1920-P. These four dates have MS64 populations between 800 and 1700. They run $1,500 to $2,200 in MS64, except for the 1920-P which goes for about $3,400. In MS65 they are hard to find especially the 1920-P with a PCGS and NGC MS65 population of just 8 coins. It would cost between $70,000 and $100,000 if you can find one. The other three - 1908-D no motto, 1910-P and 1910-S have MS65 populations between 200 and 225 and cost about $8,900, $7,300 and $7,500 respectively. The most expensive of the group in all grades is the 1907-P HR. Even with a MS63 population of 1,654 coins it cost $23,500. MS64�s and MS65�s run about $31,000 and $50,000 respectively. It�s a very popular date because of its beauty, low mintage, high relief striking and first year issuance. A perpetual demand accounts for its higher price to population ratio. Rare Dates 1908-P with motto, 1911-P, 1912-P, 1913-P, 1914-P, 1915-P, 1922-S, 1926-S. Not one of these dates has a PCGS and NGC combined MS65 population of more than 100. MS64 populations run just 475 to 550 pieces except for the 1911-P and 1912-P which are 630 and 703. And it�s not just the populations that are low. Three quarters of these dates have mintages of less than 200,000. For reference, note that the 1916-D mercury dime, produced at the same time as these issues, has a mintage of 264,000. Coins in this group are scarce enough to be desirable in any grade MS64 or higher. The 1911-P is the least expensive of the bunch, costing only about $3,450 in MS64 and $16,000 in MS65. If you don�t think MS64 rare date Saints are underrated, consider that the 1911-P is more than 220 times as rare as the most common date - 1924-P - and at $3,450 costs less than three times the price. The 1908-P with motto and 1912-P are similar in price, mintage and population. They run about $4,300 each in MS64 and $20,000 to $21,500 in MS65. Also similar are the 1914-P and 1915-P. They run $5,900 and $5,100 respectively in MS64 and about $23,500 in MS65. The 1913-P is a tough coin with just 25 coin graded MS65 by PCGS and NGC. It runs $6,600 in MS64 and $40,000 to $50,000 or more in MS65. A 1922-S goes for about $7,000, and $40,000 in MS64 and MS65. With only 10 PCGS and 11 NGC MS65�s it might trade for even more. 1926-S is nearly as tough as the 1922-S. It�s rarer in all BU grades than the 1922-S but the services graded more 1926-S in MS64 and higher. It goes for nearly $8,500 in MS64 and about $31,500 in gem. Very Rare Dates 1908-S, 1909-P, 1909/8-P, 1909-D, 1913-S, 1924- D, 1924-S, 1925-D, 1929-P. These Saints are rare enough so that MS63 samples are well sought after coins and the 1908-S, 1925-D and 1929-P are even sought after in MS60 and higher grades. Yes, MS60. Don�t think that a coin has to be some arbitrary minimum grade to be a good piece. If it�s rare enough, it can be great buy in Good/VG. During the Eighties and early Nineties, dealers promoted the notion that a coin could not make a good investment if graded anything less than MS65. This notion isn�t as prevalent today and rightly so. It�s nonsense. Just as a very common coin can be a bad buy even graded MS67, a very rare issue can offer great potential graded MS62, MS61, or even circulated. A coin has appreciation potential if it is truly rare and in demand, regardless of grade. Brilliant uncirculated MS60 to MS62 Saints are usually attractive coins and the 29-P is a good buy in any uncirculated grade as is the 1925-D in MS62 or higher condition because they�re that rare. The 1908-S is the next lowest mintage date after the 1907-P High Relief, just 22,000 made. With only 254 coins graded in all uncirculated grades it�s desirable in any grade MS60 and higher. It runs about $10,000 in MS60 and $23,000 in MS63. The other six dates should be held in grades of MS63 or higher except for the 1913-S which I like in MS64 and higher grades. A far as price goes on this group they all cost over $30,000 in MS65 grades and the dates from the 1920�s will run closer to $100,000 or more. Yet in MS63 with the exception of the 1908-S, 1925-D and 1929-P they are all available for $9,000 or less. In MS64 the 1909-P, 1909-D, 1909/8 1924-D and 1924-S will cost between $8,200 and $15,500. The 1913-S with a mintage of just 34,000 coins, the third lowest mintage date in the series, is just $6,000 in MS64. The 1925-D in MS62 is about a $6,500 coin and in MS63 $12,000. The 1929-P in MS60 to MS61 will run $16,000 to $20,000 and about $27,000 to $30,000 in MS62. The 1925-D is around $22,000 and the 1929-P is about $51,000 in MS64. Series Key Dates 1920-S, 1921-P, 1925-S, 1926-D, 1927-D, 1927-S, 1930-S, 1931-P, 1931-D, 1932-P. The monster dates. Take these in any grade you can get them. They trade too infrequently for you to be choosy. I can�t supply accurate prices, because they trade so rarely, but here is some PCGS and NGC population data and current Graysheet MS60, MS63, and MS65 bids, for reference only. 1920-S. 558,000 minted, but only 105 graded in all uncirculated grades combined. Four graded in MS65 and two MS66. Bid: MS60 $38,000; MS63 $58,000; MS65 $185,000. 1921-P. Only 88 certified in all uncirculated grades combined and only five in MS64 and three MS65�s. Bid: MS60 $85,000; MS63 $225,000; MS65 $800,000. 1925-S. Easy coin. PCGS and NGC population is 104 in MS63, 33 in MS64, and 3 in MS65, 2 in MS66 and yikes! 1 in MS68. Bid: MS60 $7,750; MS63 $17,750; MS65 $95,000. 1926-D. 61 MS63�s, 23 MS64�s, and 5 MS65�s and 2 MS66�s. Bid: MS60 $23,000; MS63 $37,500; MS65 $100,000. (MS65 bid went up 70% over the past 8 years.) 1927-D. The king of the series, toughest of them all and the real stopper to the complete date set. PCGS has certified only 7 uncirculated pieces and NGC population is just 5 coins 1 circulated and 4 uncs. Bid: MS60 $250,000; MS63 $1,100,000; MS65 $1,500,000. Up $800,000 in MS63 and nearly $1,000,000 in MS65 since 2000. 1927-S. 155 uncirculated pieces have been certified by PCGS and NGC. Just 22 in MS64 and 10 in MS65. Bid: MS60 $21,000; MS63 $46,000; MS65 $100,000. 1930-S. Makes the 27-S look easy. Just 56 uncirculated coins graded - most in MS63 to MS65 grades. There are 9 in MS63, 23 MS64�s and 13 MS65�s. Seems like quite a few, until you note that the total PCGS and NGC population from Good thru MS63 is just 15. Bid: MS60 $30,000; MS63 $94,500; MS65 $185,000. 1931-P. 113 certified in all uncirculated grades with just 2 in circulated grades. Not many, considering the 2.9 million mintage. Bid: MS60 $25,000; MS63 $56,000; MS65 $85,000. 1931-D. 134 in all uncirculated grades, with 34 in MS65. Actually possible to acquire one of these. Bid: MS60 $25,000; MS63 $75,000; MS65 $103,000. 1932-P. 133 in all uncirculated grades. Only 18 MS63�s and 36 MS65�s. No circulated pieces known. Bid: MS60 $21,000; MS63 $60,000; MS65 $89,000. I did not include the 1933-P as part of the series because they are still illegal to own. Neither PCGS nor NGC consider it as part of the Saint- Gaudens set. Of the 13 pieces known to exist one was allowed to trade in a public auction in 2002 and it brought $7,600,000. The NGC population report shows 12 graded in MS62 and the PCGS population is zero. Teddy Roosevelt authorized the series in 1907, and Franklin Roosevelt abolished it in 1933, when it became illegal to own gold in the U.S. The Great Recall and massive meltings caused the rarity of the dates 1927-1933

HistoryStudent | 04-15-2009 10:06 AM
Re: $20 Saints different date analysis Great Article to read and think about. Perhaps the COMMON ONES mentioned at a MS66 buying stage should be LOWERED to at LEAST MS65; and depending upon the where-with-all of the buyer all the way down to MS63. MS66 is a heady jewel MS65 is still a jewel MS64 is a minor jewel MS63 is a less minor jewel :36_3_12: That said - I for one go all the way down to EF on any of the hard to get ones. And MOST are so hard that I haven't GOT one as of YET! I'm NOT rolling in inflationary FIAT as the specialist writer wants us to be. Perhaps?

esoteric | 04-15-2009 10:19 AM
Re: $20 Saints different date analysis Yeah I think those 65's look pretty decent. I've been looking around for a 64/65 1926, a little hard to find. it appears some of rare dates are also a decent deal. I am trying to get a break down just like this one but for $10 and $5 if anyone has a link. ps: HS plz check your inbox, sent you a msg. Quote:
Originally Posted by HistoryStudent (Post 1678519) Great Article to read and think about. Perhaps the COMMON ONES mentioned at a MS66 buying stage should be LOWERED to at LEAST MS65; and depending upon the where-with-all of the buyer all the way down to MS63. MS66 is a heady jewel MS65 is still a jewel MS64 is a minor jewel MS63 is a less minor jewel :36_3_12:

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