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- - Silver Bags? (http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=12898)

Bobcat | 08-16-2004 07:01 PM
Silver Bags? http://geocities.com/porfiry2000/silverbags/

Infidel | 08-16-2004 07:20 PM
Re: Silver Bags? only works in Internet Exploiter

Bobcat | 08-16-2004 07:33 PM
Re: Silver Bags? Quote:
Originally Posted by zhukher only works in Internet Exploiter
see if this works; <OBJECT codeBase=http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=5,0,0,0 height="70%" width="100%" classid=clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000> <EMBED src="bags.swf" quality="best" salign="LT" wmode="transparent" bgcolor="#FFFFFF" WIDTH="100%" HEIGHT="70%" TYPE="application/x-shockwave-flash" PLUGINSPAGE="http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash"></EMBED></OBJECT> <TABLE borderColor=#999999 cellPadding=6 bgColor=#eeeeee border=3><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle bgColor=#eeeeee>What are Junk Silver Bags? </TD><TD bgColor=#eeeeee></TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#eeeeee>What are they worth? </TD><TD bgColor=#eeeeee></TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#eeeeee>What can investors do? </TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top bgColor=#eeeeee>Junk silver bags are a safe, private way to invest in modest amounts of precious metals. They are an internationally recognized unit of commerce comprising $1000 face value of old US silver coins. Called 'junk silver' by coin dealers, and valued only for their silver content, these bags are about the size of a bowling ball and weigh about 55 pounds on a bathroom scale. Junk silver is always and everywhere recognizable and tradable in large or small amounts. For commercial use these coins must be converted by refining. http://geocities.com/porfiry2000/sil...air-o-bags.jpg 90% Silver Bags contain 900 fine dimes, quarters,and halves dated 1964 and earlier, swept up from circulation after the change to clad coinage in 1965. When minted, these coins contained 723.4 Troy ounces of silver per $1000 face value. Silver Bags, with coins worn in circulation, are commonly held to contain 715 Troy ounces of silver. However this is only a trading convention and a refiner looking to 'melt' the coins may prefer to ignore the face value and go by measured weight. From a numismatic standpoint the coins are 'junk' with any values long ago searched out. Original mintage of these coins was approximately $2.5 billion. Perhaps half were melted and exported surreptitiously in the late 1960's, in response to a Treasury Department ban on the same. With many more refined in the US to fill the Hunt brothers' 1980 short squeeze, perhaps as much as $500 million remains. 40% Silver Bags consist of 400 fine Kennedy halves dated 1965 to 1970, which when minted contained 296 Troy ounces of silver per $1000 face value. Since these coins circulated for only a short time before they were swept up, no allowance is made for wear. Original mintage of these coins was about $400 million. Junk silver bags of all halves, or all 'Mercury' dimes, or all 'Walker' halves are available for premium prices. But again, a refiner looking to melt the coins will go by weight in which case the older, more worn coins will actually carry a penalty. Silver Dollars, also available in $1000 bags, are in a category of their own - never lumped with 'junk silver'. </TD><TD bgColor=#eeeeee></TD><TD vAlign=top bgColor=#eeeeee>Very roughly, they are worth their silver content multiplied by the current silver price. For example, 715 oz times $5.00/oz equals $3575. Two markets for these coins play off of each other to determine the actual value. <LI type=disc>Refiners. These actively convert the coins, by chemically refining, to produce commercially pure silver (generally for industrial consumption). If you were to present a silver bag to a refiner, you might expect to receive 90% of the contained silver in return, minus a modest lot charge. In addition, lower purity silver (ie 40%) may be subject to an additional refining charge of perhaps fifty cents per ounce contained silver. When bag prices exceed spot price, you can be sure that coins are not being converted since it is cheaper to buy commercially pure silver directly. If bags are high and the refiner is buying anyway, it's for resale to investors. Investors. These passively rely on time to obtain a profit. Motivations and perceived profit scenarios vary considerably from one investor to the next. Their level of interest can be gauged by looking at the premium paid over spot value. High premiums indicate great investor demand; discounts approaching conversion value indicate that investors want to get rid of the coins. Even when trading among investors, silver bags suffer from high shipping (weight, bulk) and handling (counting, bagging, packaging) costs and are unsuited for quick turns. In 1980, discounts approached 50 percent for very good reasons: 1. Extreme pressure from sellers anxious to cash in. 2. Refiners were backed up and didn't want any more. 3. Buyers had trouble with the cash flow required to make deals at such high prices. 4. Buyers took on the risk of a sudden price collapse before they could turn the coins around. The two prices shown on the Price Calculator are the refiner price, and the investor price based on zero premium. Please let me know if you can suggest a useful way to include premiums or dealer spreads in the Price Calculator. http://kitconet.com/charts/metals/si..._en_usoz_4.gif Kitco is a good source for current and historical silver prices. The commodity futures markets offer a slightly different take. Since these coins are still legal tender, bags will always be worth at least US$1000 regardless of the future value of silver. </TD><TD bgColor=#eeeeee></TD><TD vAlign=top bgColor=#eeeeee>An individual investor can purchase junk silver from a local coin dealer just by asking if they have any. Online dealers such as Tulving provide very competitive pricing, and ebaY is there for small odd lots. I understand that some brokers can buy and hold bags in your name. Bag prices are posted daily on the commodities page of the Wall Street Journal, and may be viewed here. I would appreciate hearing from anyone that knows how bag prices are established. To get an idea of dealer spreads that may be involved, AJPM shows competitive retail buy and sell pricing. Investor motivations for holding these coins run the gamut. I see three major categories: <LI type=disc>Currency crisis insurance. If the US Dollar stumps its toe in a TEOTWAKI or Argentina 2002 scenario, confidence may remain in silver coins as a medium of exchange. Keep in mind that the US Dollar has been solid as a rock for 200 years. <LI type=disc>Price spike speculation. If other investors want the coins, all is well. If the coins must be refined to satisfy the squeeze, pricing will suffer greatly. Check out these stories from the glory days. 999 fine bars, COMEX vault receipts or shares in Central Fund of Canada would be more liquid. A safe, private, flexible long term investment. Silver versus Gold is to investor taste: it has been observed that there are fewer ounces of silver bullion in existence than of gold; silver is regularly consumed and must be replenished by a beleagered mining industry; and the present gold to silver price ratio greatly exceeds historical levels. Of course as with all other precious metals investments there are many arguments either way. </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=5>Which is better, the 90% coins or the 40% halves? Here are arguments for and against the newer halves. <TABLE cellSpacing=10 cellPadding=5><TBODY><TR><TD bgColor=#dddddd>40% Pro: Closer to the face value floor in case silver price goes to nothing May be accepted for trade in a time when silver coins are preferred but difference is not understood Camouflage your more valuable holdings No wear on the coins, silver content more precisely known </TD><TD bgColor=#dddddd>40% con: Very bulky More expensive to refine, so tougher to move in the event of a 'great melt' Numismatically uninteresting </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Certified Mint features superb descriptions of the possible contents of silver bags. Even though these 'junk silver' bags have been searched, everyone makes mistakes. Here are some key dates that may reward a second glance. Error coin values such as 1942 and 1942D 2-over-1 dimes may exist as well. Dimes: 1916D, 1921, 1921D Quarters: 1932D, 1932S, 1936D, 1937S, 1938 Halves: 1916S (obverse mint mark), 1921, 1921D, 1921S, 1938D Original mintage, as listed in the 'Red Book', is a questionable guide to the relative scarcity of these coins today. It has been argued that the Great Melt of the 60's spared the scarcer dates, but destroyed enough of the remaining coins to make many of them equally scarce today. Silver prices during the 80's were so high that only the rarest examples were worth holding back from the pot. Thank you for your interest! My opinion only, and of course nothing here is investment advice. �2002 and 2003 Porfiry Petrovitch, porfiry@hotmail.com </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE width="80%" border=0><TBODY><TR align=middle><TD>http://geocities.com/porfiry2000/cefbanner.jpg</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- text below generated by server. PLEASE REMOVE --></OBJECT></LAYER></P> </SPAN></STYLE></NOSCRIPT></TABLE></SCRIPT></APPLET><SCRIPT language=JavaScript src="http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mc/mc.js"></SCRIPT><SCRIPT src="http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mc/mc1.js"></SCRIPT><SCRIPT src="http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mc/mc2.js"></SCRIPT><SCRIPT language=JavaScript src="http://geocities.com/js_source/geov2.js"></SCRIPT><SCRIPT language=javascript>geovisit();</SCRIPT>http://visit.geocities.com/visit.gif...6&j=true&v=1.2 <NOSCRIPT>http://visit.webhosting.yahoo.com/vi...f?us1092698916</NOSCRIPT>http://geo.yahoo.com/serv?s=76001084&t=1092698916

hoarder | 08-16-2004 09:04 PM
Re: Silver Bags? The page gives a link to commodities prices that includes silver bags, but the price shown for 90% bags today is 5% more than I paid for 90% this afternoon from a local dealer. In any case, it's refreshing to see any "mainstream" media acknowledge the existence of real money on a financial page, other that "spot" price. Another link has "stories from the glory days" and on the bottom of that page....guess who? a link to a GIM thread!

Bobcat | 08-16-2004 09:42 PM
Re: Silver Bags? This is the part I found most interesting, about trying to sell bags in 1980, "In 1980, discounts approached 50 percent for very good reasons: 1. Extreme pressure from sellers anxious to cash in. 2. Refiners were backed up and didn't want any more. 3. Buyers had trouble with the cash flow required to make deals at such high prices. 4. Buyers took on the risk of a sudden price collapse before they could turn the coins around." It sounds like if someone wants to sell fast in a big jump, bags aren't the way to go.

hoarder | 08-16-2004 09:58 PM
Re: Silver Bags? Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobcat This is the part I found most interesting, about trying to sell bags in 1980, "In 1980, discounts approached 50 percent for very good reasons: 1. Extreme pressure from sellers anxious to cash in. 2. Refiners were backed up and didn't want any more. 3. Buyers had trouble with the cash flow required to make deals at such high prices. 4. Buyers took on the risk of a sudden price collapse before they could turn the coins around." It sounds like if someone wants to sell fast in a big jump, bags aren't the way to go.
It seems that during that spike, the demand was at Comex, at the wholesale end, rather than individuals wanting the security of PM's. If the reverse were true, bags would be in demand and refiners would not be a factor. Anyone have any predictions of which end most of the demand will come from in the next big spike and how it might effect the mechanics of buying and selling?

Silverity | 08-17-2004 04:01 AM
Re: Silver Bags? It seems few profited from the 1980 spike. I guess others sold at deep discounts or held out for more. I hold silver mainly in certificate form for this reason - liquidity. I have a few bars and coins as well but may hold onto them forever. However, if we are entering an era of permanently higher prices (i.e. at worst a plateau in prices), then one could sell their silver candlesticks for a handsome profit! Silverity.

AgAuGal | 08-17-2004 08:35 PM
Re: Silver Bags? Nice link with other nice links. Also took note of the 90% ask price, definitely on the high side. Wonder who is paying for 90% at this price. Was concerned about the 50% discount but there are fewer bags out there now because of that runup, silver has been in a deficite much longer and the US is in debt at the federal, state and personal level. Different conditions then then now.

LeadBrick | 08-18-2004 08:36 AM
Re: Silver Bags? Yes, the conditions are different now, but remember that the reason why 90% bags were selling for such a discount was from a shortage of refiners. If the public gets in on this, a similar situation could exist. If the public doesn't know about it, then the only demand will be from industrial usage and from a tiny bunch of hoarders. But a Hunts-brothers style hoarding is a wild card that should not be eliminated. Also remember what can happen if supply starts dropping to zero. That happened with platinum. The buyers of platinum wanted to buy at nearly any price, but when the supplies did not show up, they gave up buying and thus the price plummetted. But even this is not a perfect analogy - platinum has palladium as a viable substitute for many applications. Silver does not seem to have any near-term substitutes for major industrial applications.

hoarder | 08-18-2004 08:44 AM
Re: Silver Bags? Quote:
Originally Posted by LeadBrick a tiny bunch of hoarders.
There is a higher awarenes of monetary matters now due to the internet and a greater fear of financial doom and gloom due to the advancement of the New World Odor. I think that hoarders may represent a large mass of the demand.

AgAuGal | 08-18-2004 07:04 PM
Re: Silver Bags? Speaking of refiners, has anyone published a list of refiners and where they are located for the time we want to sell? Might be better to go directly to a refiner if prices go up. Did anyone do this during the last runup? What type of discount to spot can be expected or will refiners pay spot?

Libertarian_Guard | 08-18-2004 08:02 PM
Re: Silver Bags? Quote:
Originally Posted by AgAuGal Speaking of refiners, has anyone published a list of refiners and where they are located for the time we want to sell? Might be better to go directly to a refiner if prices go up. Did anyone do this during the last runup? What type of discount to spot can be expected or will refiners pay spot?
http://online.kitco.com/scripts/cgi-...n=8&SortedBy=0

AgAuGal | 08-19-2004 07:06 PM
Re: Silver Bags? Thanks for the link LG. I didn't realize kitco had the info.

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