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- - When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? (http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=407097)

TheSkeptic | 09-12-2009 08:01 PM
When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Question: When gold hits $2000/ounce, and silver is at $50/oz, this would likely be against a backdrop of economic turmoil. I'd imagine that if the prices were this bad, the S will have HTF and people will be desperate to acquire raw physical bullion. In a scenario like this, I can certainly see standard premiums holding on SAEs, GAEs, and other trusted forms. BUT - why is anyone in their right mind, with the dollar falling apart, going to want to pay (two examples:) - 160% spot for a UHR - 300% spot on a 2008 SAE proof Insert whatever coin you like with a high numismatic value above. Wouldn't it be smart to sell off anything with numi value at some point between the time gold starts taking off and the time when the dollar is nearing collapse? Then, use that money to just load up on more common forms of bullion? I just don't get why someone in the midst of hyperinflation, for instance, would opt to pay some insane premium for a rare coin, than to get 2-3 common bullion coins for the same price. Just wondering what others' thoughts are.

AGRO | 09-12-2009 08:14 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? NO, NO, NO. You are confusing a real NUMIsmatic coin with GVMT minted BULLION COINS. There is a BIG difference. As Spot Gold/Silver Rises, NUMIS only become less affordable, to the Joe 6pk, and more valuable and rare. Bullion Coins such as UHRs, AGE's, ASE's, etc. Are PURELY NON-Numismatic. They are an option by a GVMT mint for the public to buy GVMT minted AU etc. in a GVMT backed BULLION coin. (Meaning the GOLD content is backed by the US gov for example) NUMISMATIC coins, are those that were MINTED in GOLD SILVER, even CuNi clad, by said GVMT, THEN released for circulation. In other words, GOLD and Silver Numis, are pre 1933 Gold, Silver coinage, ie; dimes halves, quarters, in EF, AU, etc. What gives a coin real Numi value is not so much it's gold content, yet, it's Condition, Mintage Number, Mint mark, etc. There are Numi coins minted every day the GVMT has a mistake, such as "double die." Numis will only rise. The coin that may be only sold at spot one day is a New St. Gaudens, or a UHR. However due to marketing and other such means, these bullion coins like ASE's are falsely graded for instance "BU." BU is not a grade.

andial | 09-12-2009 08:14 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? I'm not in TSWHTF camp. Just a further dilution of the dollar to make the math work on all the entitlements people crave. I say we are halfway there. Looking at the seventies Gold run you will notice bullion peaked in 1980 and numismatics continued on until 1989. I think something similar happens this time too. JMHO

TheSkeptic | 09-12-2009 08:22 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Agro, Thanks for clearing that up for me. Let's say gold is at a nice high like $1200. Woudl that be a good time to sell any bullion coins I have, such as the 1986 Gold Eagle Proof or the 2008 SAE proof? It seems then that the premiums on these would plummet as spot prices soared. Quote:
Originally Posted by andial (Post 1917885) I'm not in TSWHTF camp. Just a further dilution of the dollar to make the math work on all the entitlements people crave. I say we are halfway there. Looking at the seventies Gold run you will notice bullion peaked in 1980 and numismatics continued on until 1989. I think something similar happens this time too. JMHO
What was the trend with high-premium bullion during/after this time?

AGRO | 09-12-2009 08:36 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? I would say YES. BUT, sell to a buyer LOOKING for that. Not a refiner or scrapper. Let me further divulge. The problem with Numismatic coins is that given the market conditions and economy, the General Market may not be able to "afford" the premiums on NUMI coins. However, REAL numismatic coins that go for 1k plus are only in the price range of those that are collecting a "rare coin." Thus, this is a niche market. To catch 22s if you buy a numi at a good price, say 100 year old AU coin, in another several years, this coin will only become More rare, thus detaching itself from spot gold, already seen as a "collectors" item. MANY, numis are destroyed yearly by selling to scrappers, like yourself (no offense) I would buy them too. Not for melting. These coins WILL never be minted again. The USG can mint ASEs or UHRs any damn time it wants to. They DO not MINT Morgan, or Peace dollars any more, in 90% Silver..... (China takes care of the new morgans!! LOL) THIS DIME COSTS $3795 This price fluctuates on years passed, rarity and graded coin population, not spot price, if I am wrong, PLEASE correct me. These coins signify a piece of US history or other county, most likely NEVER to be re- instated. The 2.5 GOLD Indian heads I have WERE worth 2.5 Dollars in GOLD at that time!!! Deemed so by the USGVMT!!! In 1933 if you had a pocket full of say $100 bucks in 2.5 & 10 dollar Gold, you "was" a rich MAN! / Woman. "Proof" - "GEM Uncirculated" and "BU" are NOT real numi Grades.

andial | 09-12-2009 08:43 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Quote:
What was the trend with high-premium bullion during/after this time?
I would say bullion and numismatics were both rallying equally during the seventies and numismatics just kept on going after bullion tired out. After 1989 it was a sell.

TheSkeptic | 09-12-2009 08:47 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Then couldn't something like a 2008 SAE proof become a collector's item/numi coin if no more proofs were minted, or if they did but 2009 became a gap year?

AGRO | 09-12-2009 08:50 PM
Numi Grades PO: Poor - 1 PO-1: A coin with all the detail worn away as long as it has a date that can be identified and enough detail to figure out what type it is would grade the worst. FR: Fair - 2 FR-2: A coin that meets the description of PO-1 but has some details showing. AG: About Good - 3 AG-3: A coin that has its rim and readable letters, although pretty worn down G: Good - 4-6 Common gradients are 4 and 6. G-6: A coin that has slightly warn rim, details although worn flat, and peripheral letters almost full will grade out as G-4. If the coin has full peripheral letters the coin will grade as G-6 VG: Very Good - 7-10; common gradients are 8 and 10. VG-8: A coin that has its design worn but still has minor details remaining qualifies VG-10: Slightly more detail than VG -8 F: Fine - 11-19; common numerical gradients are 12 and 15. F-12: When the letters are still sharp in detail and there is still detail in the coin but in the low areas on the coin. F-15: if there is a little more detail in the low lying areas of the coin PCGS will give this grade VF: Very Fine - 20-39; common numerical gradients are 20, 30, 35. VF-20: When all the letters are sharp and all there and there is some definition of detail in the coin and not just the low areas VF-25: Again, If there is slightly more detail the coin VF-30: If there is almost full detail in the flat areas VF-35: when the coin has full detail but the high points are worn flat. EF: Extremely Fine - (XF or EF) 40-49; common numerical gradients are 40 and 45. EF-40: when most of the detail on the coin is full and most of the high points are only partially flat. EF-45: is the same except only a few of the high point are flat. AU: About Uncirculated - 50-59; common numerical gradients are 50, 53, 55, and 58. AU-50: defined as a coin that has only minor flatness on the high points of the coin and friction over most of the coins surface. AU-53: is the same but with friction only on half of the coin and a little less flatness. AU-55: is friction on less than half of the coins surface and very slight flatness. AU-58: is only slight friction in the high points of the coin. There must also be full detail on the coin to be graded as any state of AU. MS: Mint State - 60-70 MS-60: a coin that has no wear what so ever, with many heavy marks or hairline scratches and it might not be fully struck with hall the detail. MS-61: is the same but with a few less scratches. MS-62: is slightly less marks on the coin then MS-61. MS-63: is a moderate number of marks on a moderate size. MS-64: is few marks or a couple of severe ones, with an average strike. MS-70: is the highest grade a coin can get, only a few every year ever get this grade. In order to get this grade the coin must have gotten the full strike of the coin and must be in the same condition that it was struck in. it must have no wear or contact marks anywhere on the coin.

AGRO | 09-12-2009 08:59 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Quote:
Originally Posted by TheSkeptic (Post 1917941) Then couldn't something like a 2008 SAE proof become a collector's item/numi coin if no more proofs were minted, or if they did but 2009 became a gap year?
As far as I know it will NEVER be a Numismatic coin. YES, it can and will increase in value due to the same factors. More on the Collectors aspect. But, this coin can and will be stripped of any "collector" aspect if you were to encounter a shortage, or a lack of buyers for, what is essentially an odd date, GVMT minted bullion coin. You can find a NUMI in a double die, penny that is worth thousands. Again, as far as I know, what constitutes a Numismatic coin is one that is, actually released for production, then saved in MS, or Kept in AU, not a GVMT bullion coin that had a low mintage and was sold to you as a "BU" "GEM" or any other such claim. These coins can be scrutinized by collectors, in terms of the job the Mint did on the coin, mintage, etc. However they are new and will never be released or used into circulation. If gold were to hit 2k, do you think the dealer cares about a 2000 "BU" ASE? NO. Nor, would a refiner. when you try to ask them for an extra hundred buck because your coin has "numi" value, they see 1 ounce of pure silver, that will be melted, assayed, then re-sold, no matter how pretty the picture. This is when GIM BUY SELL or other such sales medium would come in handy, to reach a select market. A coin dealer is only successful if he has people to buy his coins, right? Would YOU, pay more for a 100 year old AU gold piece or a 2008 UHR?

AGRO | 09-12-2009 09:06 PM
BULLION COIN A bullion coin[/B] is a coin struck from precious metal and kept as a store of value or an investment, rather than used in day-to-day commerce. Bullion coins are usually available in gold and silver, with the exception of the Krugerrand and the Swiss Vreneli which are only available in gold. The American Eagle series is available in gold, silver and platinum, and the Canadian Maple Leaf series is available in gold, silver, platinum and also palladium. Bullion coins are also typically available in various weights. These are usually multiples or fractions of 1 troy ounce, but some bullion coins are produced in very limited quantities in kilograms and even heavier. Bullion coins sell for a premium over the market price of the metal on the commodities exchanges. This is due to their comparative small size and the costs associated with manufacture, storage and distribution. The margin that is paid varies depending on what type of coin it is, the weight of the coin, and the precious metal. The premium also is affected by prevailing demand. The ISO currency code of gold bullion is XAU. ISO 4217 includes codes not only for currencies, but also for precious metals (gold, silver, palladium and platinum; by definition expressed per one troy ounce, as compared to "1 USD") and certain other entities used in international finance, e.g. Special Drawing Rights.

andial | 09-12-2009 09:11 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? 1 Attachment(s) A long term numismatic coin price chart.

AGRO | 09-12-2009 09:49 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Looks like it is still trending up after that Crazy spike! HMMM that was ALMOST 10 years ago... AS THE USD tanks we MAY see a similar spike in numis as we rapidly approach 2010. 10 years later. I o not see it being as great, yet, it MAY, happen.

HistoryStudent | 09-13-2009 01:41 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? NUMISMATICS (rare coins) = antiques, art, history, intrinsic, authenticated, small way for great wealth holding, and will GO UPppppppppppp about five times more than the BULLION coins will. :getdown::getdown::getdown::565::565::565::5_1_120 ::5_1_120::5_1_120::banana::banana::banana::yes::y es:

TheSkeptic | 09-13-2009 02:44 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? OK, now that I see the clear difference between highly sought after bullion coins versus true numismatic coins -- So is there really any reason for me to hang on to bullion coins that are selling for big premiums right now? Should I just sell them and use the profit from the premium to buy more bullion? Examples: - 1986 Gold Eagle Proof - 2008 SAE proof - 1/20 platinum Panda

HistoryStudent | 09-13-2009 06:15 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Well, if you want to have and HOLD the ULTIMATE currency GOLD instead of paper - you will not go broke like the sheeple below will. Dear CIGAs, Size and major risk have been confirmed for those with the eyes to see and the ears to hear. It is exactly what I have been teaching. Translation: Unless financial contracts have standards there is no way to clear them. Unless financial instruments have accurate means of daily valuation, there is no way to clear them. OTC derivatives outstanding from 1991 to 2008 have no standards. OTC derivatives outstanding from 1991 to 2008 have no sound means of true valuation in any time frame, certainly not from day to day. With this being the incontrovertible set of facts: The Bank for International Settlements is for the first time proposing the world�s central banks take over the financial risk of the entire mountain of more than one quadrillion one hundred and forty four trillion dollars (valuation before the change to "value to maturity" method valuation of nominal value of OTC derivatives) of OTC derivatives created from 1991 to 2008. The reason is simple. This unchanged in size mountain of weapons of mass financial destruction as still sitting there ready to explode in the second chapter of the greatest double dip depression of 2007 � 2009. Can you blame China for simply saying no to Western crack cocaine finance? Now do you understand why China is buying raw materials, entering joint ventures and purchasing energy and raw material companies while utilizing their dollar instruments for payment? Central Banks Must Coordinate Clearinghouse Oversight, BIS Says By Abigail Moses Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) � Central banks should coordinate global oversight of derivatives clearinghouses and consider offering them access to emergency funds to limit systemic risk, according to the Bank for International Settlements. Regulators are pushing for much of the $592 trillion market in over-the-counter derivatives trades to be moved to clearinghouses which act as the buyer to every seller and seller to every buyer, reducing the risk to the financial system from defaults. The drive was spurred by the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the rescue of American International Group Inc., two of the biggest credit-default swaps traders. �The crisis has exposed the need for international coordination of the oversight of systemically important� clearinghouses, BIS analysts Stephen Cecchetti, Jacob Gyntelberg and Marc Hollanders wrote in a report published today. An important and unresolved question is whether clearinghouses �should have access to central bank credit facilities and, if so, when,� they wrote. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and 13 other derivatives dealers last week told the Federal Reserve Bank of New York they will submit 95 percent of new credit-default swaps trades to clearinghouses. They made similar commitments for interest-rate derivatives. Intercontinental Exchange Inc., owner of the largest credit-default swap clearinghouse, said last week it will make it easier for hedge funds and other bank clients to access its service to guarantee trades starting next month. More�

Sparky | 09-13-2009 06:24 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Quote:
Originally Posted by andial (Post 1917982) A long term numismatic coin price chart.
Looks like numis held up in the 1979-80 spike. Gold at $2000 isn't really a SHTF scenario. The inflation-adjusted price from the last spike is about $2500, and the world didn't end in 1980.

andial | 09-13-2009 06:34 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? True inflation adjusted to the '80 spike Gold would be priced at over 2k. But I really don't like to compare what Gold should be today using a parabolic spike as a yardstick.

HistoryStudent | 09-13-2009 06:44 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_diges...ton021309.html good article to read and understand. I fugure that there is a 60 to 90% chance that the stocks may crash again next month and like the last paragraphs in this link - BRING THE MINT TO ITS KNEES as the explosion in premium will BE huge just by itself. :23_1_22::111:

Master_Ho | 09-13-2009 07:12 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Quote:
Originally Posted by TheSkeptic (Post 1918953) OK, now that I see the clear difference between highly sought after bullion coins versus true numismatic coins -- So is there really any reason for me to hang on to bullion coins that are selling for big premiums right now? Should I just sell them and use the profit from the premium to buy more bullion? Examples: - 1986 Gold Eagle Proof - 2008 SAE proof - 1/20 platinum Panda
The term that everyone is dancing around, that seems to have become a commonly used term in the field, is SEMI-NUMISMATIC.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> As HS pointed out NUMISMATICS refers (predominantly) to rare collectors coins, older coins (the coins we all want and can not afford! *lol*). Bullion is that stuff that we buy newly minted, for the metal value alone, though they might look nice enough (except that stupid Maple leaf everyone around here thinks is so cool - put a pot leaf on it and see those puppies fly out the door!!)...........<o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> But numismatics and bullion are merely two sides of the Tao - the two extremes............<o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> But in between, right in the middle where that line is, where it divides the two sides........this is where lay the coins that are not really numismatic (they are not old or rare) but DO have some collector interest to them above their metal values. That middle group is, what is commonly referred to as, semi-numismatic........the ones that carry a little extra premium for the collectors value they hold, like the new UHRs. With semi-numismatic coins, mainly graded ones, there is the additional hope that, over time, they will be worth more and more as new collectors come into the field and try to find those coins that, while new today, are not so new then (in the future) and harder to find in MS states! And that is exactly what will happen and what they will do........and I don't even need my crystal ball to know that.....the history of coin-collecting tells us that, while there are slower periods, its a field that goes back to the first guy who said "I'll just keep this coin aside." and has existed throughout recorded history. But my crystal ball LIKES to talk, as does my crystal skull, and they DO tell me that "collectors will continue to increase in numbers", because, one thing no one around here takes into account when talking semi and nuimismatic coins............ppsssssssstttt......they keep making more and more people!!!! They breed like cockroaches, doncha know! And SOME of these newly-made people will become coin collectors!!! So, do the math.......the number of coin collectors is going to keep going up regardless of what any of the silly Mad Max people around here think (few of them think, I think.........or do I just think I think?)..............so the demand WILL keep, slowly, increasing for coins that can NEVER increase and have, quite probably, decreased in numbers as people lose or wear them down. Is a no brainer, dude, cause its the way its always been in history!! <o:p></o:p> The three coins you listed above (to my mind, because semi-numismatics is a personal value based on personal research and thoughts about the coin market) are all semi-numismatic.<o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> As to selling them - here is my thought [[speaking as someone who has been in gold and silver since the mid-70's and, while he has invested with an eye to a dying economy and dollar, knows that he is not going under with this crisis, and that most will survive, and that coin collecting will continue even after this crisis is over, so is about 35% semi & numismatic]]: <o:p></o:p> You bought (whatever) coins and paid some sort of premium for them............unless you are hurting for cash, do not sell the semi-numismatics (especially if they are graded)..........gold and silver are going to go up so high that eventually the metal value on coins like that may overtake the numismatic value and you will win! And, if it does not, its collectors value may still stay up, so you'd still win! And, if not, it will never be worth less than the gold and silver its made from, which is going up, so you still win!<o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> WIN! WIN! WIN! (You gotta problem with that?) <o:p></o:p> If you are not a collector, or you feel the premiums are not worth it, from now on only buy bullion.........but if you do not need the cash, there is still a chance that down the road, the demand for those coins will still be higher! Just some thoughts from an idiot...........<o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> No doubt other idiots will have thoughts too............idiots always do........... One last thought..........<o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> I am not sure but MAYBE if we had less people.........we'd have alot less idiots! <o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> I know, I was thinking the same thing............someone should have told my mother that! <o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> Cheers!

mojo1 | 09-13-2009 07:21 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Look at the low numbers of some of the W minted coins. I would say that these have numismatic value imo. Some of the w minted au/pt were extremely low numbers. The US Mint most likely won't make anymore fractional Buffs, PAEs or GAEs. If this is true I say these could go to stupid values and the downside risk is minimal imo. 2008 W GAE Burnished Mintage (Estimated): 12,387 (1 oz), 16,126 (1/2 oz), 9,200 (1/4 oz), 13,376 (1/10 oz) 2008 W Buffalo 1 oz Uncirculated 9,427 ,1/2 oz Uncirculated 17,xxx ,1/4 oz Uncirculated 10,420 ,1/10 oz Uncirculated 18,847 2008 W PAE Proof Mintage*: 5,030 (1 oz), 3,654 (1/2 oz), 3,891 (1/4 oz), 5,650 (1/10 oz) 2008 PAE Uncirculated (W) Mintage*: 4,063 (1 oz), 3,415 (1/2 oz), 3,894 (1/4 oz), 4,623 (1/10 oz) IMO these and others will continue to gain in value faster than the bullion bars I have. I'm new to this so I could be completely wrong but I'm putting money behind my belief and have been buying these over the past 2 years along with reg bullion bars and coins in AU/AG. I like having a variety now and it makes saving/investing in PMs more interesting and enjoyable. Compare these US Mint coins historical value and rarity to some of the Tuvalu DD stuff that is selling for stupid prices.

Montecristo | 09-13-2009 09:48 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Question for the numi guys: If some one has a couple pre-1933 St. Gaudens and $20 Liberteis that are not graded, should they send them in to be graded? How much does it cost to have a coin graded? How long does it take? I have no knowledge of numis, but I would assume these are not in great shape. Is it worth the extra money just to see if maybe I got lucky and bought something that grades out good? They are all easily legible and not worn down from use but seem to have a few minor scratches here and there. They kind of look like they weren't preserved real well, like someone kept them unprotected with some other coins that may have scratched them. Lets say looking at Agro's list of grades where would be the break even point on what my coins needed to grade out at to make it worthwhile sending them in?

hernancortes | 09-13-2009 10:32 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? What dates/mintmarks are they? If they are tough dates and are genuine, they are probably worth slabbing. If they're common dates, only worth slabbing if they're uncirculated which they are likely not, from your description. If they've been tampered with in any way -- whizzing, cleaning, excessive dipping, crimps at 2,6, & 10 o'clock at the rim, etc. --- then don't bother either.

TheSkeptic | 09-13-2009 11:07 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Master_Ho, Thanks for your post. My concern is that in a possible scenario where the raw gold value of, say, my 1986 GAE Proof, far outpaces any semi-numismatic value, is this: If I sell the coin tomorrow for a $300 profit, then reinvest the original $1300 + the $300 profit into more gold at low premium (Pamp bars, etc.), I now have turned 1ozt of gold into roughly 1.5ozt gold. Gold goes to $2000 and the 1986 GAE Proof I no longer have now only sells for $200 over spot, instead of $600 over. I then trade in the 1.5ozt bars for $3000. So there is a downside to holding semi-numismatic, if the value disappears. No, you don't lose money in one sense, but you do lose it in another. So whether or not this will happen, is what I'm trying to determine.

SirSilverOzzyyzzO | 09-13-2009 11:25 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Quote:
Originally Posted by Montecristo (Post 1919449) Question for the numi guys: If some one has a couple pre-1933 St. Gaudens and $20 Liberteis that are not graded, should they send them in to be graded? How much does it cost to have a coin graded? How long does it take? I have no knowledge of numis, but I would assume these are not in great shape. Is it worth the extra money just to see if maybe I got lucky and bought something that grades out good? They are all easily legible and not worn down from use but seem to have a few minor scratches here and there. They kind of look like they weren't preserved real well, like someone kept them unprotected with some other coins that may have scratched them. Lets say looking at Agro's list of grades where would be the break even point on what my coins needed to grade out at to make it worthwhile sending them in?
Know what... If those Liberty & St Gaudens added together turn into a family of five raw numismatic coins. Buy one of the two NGC premium subscriptions and send them in with the 5 free coupon - this way you kinda break even, and with their new grading system they will even slab them if they are whizzed or damaged - all you have to worry about is if they are fakes... I used to hate NGC, but with their new system I have turned a new leaf. Don't think about it, just do it. Becoming a member will also answer all your questions - you'll learn a lot of good stuff. If PCGS offered the same service I'd recommend them first, but they don't. http://www.ngccoin.com/MemberPortal/Login.aspx You won't need us anymore...

HistoryStudent | 09-13-2009 11:35 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Quote:
Originally Posted by Montecristo (Post 1919449) Question for the numi guys: If some one has a couple pre-1933 St. Gaudens and $20 Liberteis that are not graded, should they send them in to be graded? How much does it cost to have a coin graded? How long does it take? I have no knowledge of numis, but I would assume these are not in great shape. Is it worth the extra money just to see if maybe I got lucky and bought something that grades out good? They are all easily legible and not worn down from use but seem to have a few minor scratches here and there. They kind of look like they weren't preserved real well, like someone kept them unprotected with some other coins that may have scratched them. Lets say looking at Agro's list of grades where would be the break even point on what my coins needed to grade out at to make it worthwhile sending them in?
Yes. Always HAVE your pre-1933 antique SAINTS graded. The few bucks you spend authenticates them later for sale. You'll have to figure out which GRADER fits your bill. Frankly, I just downloaded ANACS coin submit forms off the internet for 5 more gold coins that I have ungraded. However, NGC and PCGS I have used in the past - but you have to join them. :15_1_70v:

SirSilverOzzyyzzO | 09-13-2009 11:39 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Quote:
Originally Posted by HistoryStudent (Post 1919574) Yes. Always HAVE your pre-1933 antique SAINTS graded. The few bucks you spend authenticates them later for sale. You'll have to figure out which GRADER fits your bill. Frankly, I just downloaded ANACS coin submit forms off the internet for 5 more gold coins that I have ungraded. However, NGC and PCGS I have used in the past - but you have to join them. :15_1_70v:
History, I mentioned NGC in the post just above yours. Montecristo, In addition, think of authentication as added Insurance.

HiHoSilver64 | 09-14-2009 12:01 AM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Quote:
Originally Posted by TheSkeptic (Post 1918953) OK, now that I see the clear difference between highly sought after bullion coins versus true numismatic coins -- So is there really any reason for me to hang on to bullion coins that are selling for big premiums right now? Should I just sell them and use the profit from the premium to buy more bullion? Examples: - 1986 Gold Eagle Proof - 2008 SAE proof - 1/20 platinum Panda
Simple answer... get as much gold for the money as you can. Don't bother with much past BU condition [they will just trade easier] and forget the rare coin demand issue. I could be wrong but I expect most people are generally clueless when it comes to PM real value. Like I have said before PM's are best to be saved for post SHTF purchases and paying for medical procedures or for bribery with people who have some sort of understanding of the value of things for unforeseen events that just can not be anticipated. I'm familiar with silver but not so familiar with gold. I have a few AE 1/10 oz gold pieces and frankly I thought how can these tiny coins be worth this much....it's smaller than a penny. I know better now but just understand that the general public is generally clueless when it comes to value. You said before that you are picking up scrap gold for cheap...and this is only because people are not aware of its true value. People are so clueless in the public. I'm not trying to be a jerk but I'm really not sure how many of them hold down jobs. I think I drifted from the original question. The BIG coin shop I deal with in my area specifically recommends for people to not hold rare or numismatic coins as the main part of their holdings. I do believe numismatics, graded and rare coins will hold their value better if there is a sharp pull back in spot prices. YMMV

Godot | 09-14-2009 12:53 AM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? During the last few months of the run up in 80, we were seeing numistics coming in for melt, by the hour. It was sad really... to see people be taken that way. Most of them we're folks to old to know any better. .

Master_Ho | 09-14-2009 01:01 AM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Quote:
Originally Posted by TheSkeptic (Post 1919553) Master_Ho, Thanks for your post. My concern is that in a possible scenario where the raw gold value of, say, my 1986 GAE Proof, far outpaces any semi-numismatic value, is this: If I sell the coin tomorrow for a $300 profit, then reinvest the original $1300 + the $300 profit into more gold at low premium (Pamp bars, etc.), I now have turned 1ozt of gold into roughly 1.5ozt gold. Gold goes to $2000 and the 1986 GAE Proof I no longer have now only sells for $200 over spot, instead of $600 over. I then trade in the 1.5ozt bars for $3000. So there is a downside to holding semi-numismatic, if the value disappears. No, you don't lose money in one sense, but you do lose it in another. So whether or not this will happen, is what I'm trying to determine.
Certanlly, if you think you can buy, sell and turn a profit...go for it...........thats a totally different consideration...........but honestly, most people I see try it don't do very well...........a few do ok, but most do not............. PERSONALLY, I have bought and sold bullion for numismatics a couple of times, and I have actually sold semi-numismatic gold for different semi-numimatic gold...........so if you want to do that, and feel confident, why not!

Jekyll7 | 09-14-2009 01:41 AM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? AGRO, I thought you explanations were good, but just to add my 2 cents: "BU" is still generally accepted as a term for MS-63, and GEM is still used today for coins that attain the MS-65 level. Further, coins graded MS-64 and MS-66 may be called "Near gem" and "super gem", respectively. My definition of a numi coin is one which is valued for it's scarcity and condition. Generally, though not in absolutely every case, the coin would have to be a circulating legal tender coin (CLT) versus something like a GAE or a mint set, which is non circulating (NCLT). This may sound odd, as a mint set is created exclusively for the purpose of being collected - a "numismatic" issue it would seem. However, most serious collectors will avoid mint product of this nature (with a few exceptions). This is one of the first lessons most people learn - the difference between what can be labeled "numismatic", and what a more serious collector is going to be looking for in terms of a "numismatic" coin. Intrinsic metal value has zero bearing on a true numismatic coin, which seems to be a bit of a hangup for many people here on GIM who tend to think of things in terms of X amount of Y metal at Z spot price.

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Gold & Silver Forum - When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain?

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- - When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? (http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=407097)

NewSilverGuy | 09-14-2009 01:47 AM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Me personally I think bullion is probably the best way, its a double win if you can find semi-num coins for bullion prices. :)

Master_Ho | 09-14-2009 02:15 AM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Quote:
Originally Posted by NewSilverGuy (Post 1919680) Me personally I think bullion is probably the best way, its a double win if you can find semi-num coins for bullion prices. :)
For people starting out (so most people) this is the right way to go - but for some, seeing, holding, TOUCHING gold causes them to want to learn more, and get more and, well, wouldn't it be nice if it had a little history to it and..........next thing you know.........you are reading books, and collecting, SOMETHING! *lol*

keehah | 09-14-2009 03:06 AM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? I don't think anyone in their right mind would buy them in the first place. At least not to sell during a metals run. Maples and GIMers are were I draw the line. Last silver boom all sorts of rare and beautiful antiques were sold at spot and melted down.

hernancortes | 09-14-2009 08:44 AM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Skeptic, 2008 is a very common date among proof ASE's, yes it will retain it's proof premium but the other dates in the series are scarcer so they will hold the value of the commons down somewhat.

Montecristo | 09-14-2009 09:35 AM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Thanks for the info guys. I'm going to look in to joining NGC tonight when I get home.

TheSkeptic | 09-14-2009 11:18 AM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Quote:
Originally Posted by hernancortes (Post 1919884) Skeptic, 2008 is a very common date among proof ASE's, yes it will retain it's proof premium but the other dates in the series are scarcer so they will hold the value of the commons down somewhat.
Thanks. My attachment to the 2008 proof is that it may be the last one made. So wouldn't that (over time) translate to a huge premium over other years, even with disproportionate mintage? Example (Blue Book pricing) 1929 Indian Head $5 gold piece - 662,000 minted (final year) - VF-20 $4,500 Same coin from 1908 (first year) in VF-20 - $235 Same coin from 1916 (second to last year) in VF-20 - $245 And mintage on the 1916 is almost three times lower than the 1929...

hernancortes | 09-14-2009 11:46 AM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? That's true but I gotta assume there are other circumstances to explain that. I can't think of another type coin that is valued any higher just because it's the final date in a series. Alot of the old US coins, in certain dates were melted in masse and I suspect that was the case with the '29 $5.

TheSkeptic | 09-14-2009 12:25 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? The reason I knew about those is that a few months ago I had set up a tent and was buying gold by an intersection, and a guy stopped claiming to have 6 of the Indian Head $5 pieces from "the last year they even made them". He was willing to let them go for $300-400/ea. At the time there was some confusion and I didn't realize the raw metal value of the coins, much less their numi value (if he did in fact have the 1929s), so I passed and didn't even get his number. When I got home and pulled my Red Book out, I cursed in about 8 languages.

hernancortes | 09-14-2009 12:40 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? You dodged a bullet LOL he was trying to dump those countless 24k gold-plated 1929 REPLICAS on you whose true value is virtually nil. I just had a gander at the PCGS pop. report -- only 296 of the '29's have ever been submitted, which means that in actuality significantly fewer than that exist in PCGS holders since the same coins have been re-submitted time and time again in hopes of gaining a higher grade and thus ALOT more dough. My hunch was right --- there may have been many '29's minted but they are extremely scarce in the real world. I'm guessing they were melted and a few slipped through the cracks.

TheSkeptic | 09-14-2009 12:45 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Perhaps they were fake... I'll probably never know, but I still think about it all the time. :111: Whenever we buy gold coins though, we either acid test (which would've immediately revealed a plating), or have recently started doing weigh/circumference/thickness which would've caught it.

hernancortes | 09-14-2009 12:54 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? No perhaps about it. Maybe you've seen this ad, about 25 times by now, on the tube: https://www.1929indianproof.com/vcc/...indian/127556/. LOL the only counterfeit detector you'd need for those is your naked eye. The real deal is a freaking monster, the deep-seated key, etc all the superlatives. You didn't miss nuthin', just a chance to call him out.

TheSkeptic | 09-14-2009 01:43 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? That video was hilarious. I love how the narrator barely mumbles the word "clad" while heavily pronouncing the rest. :111: I still don't write the guy I talked to off. He was a very old man, I was in a pretty small town and overall generally rural area. He told me he bought them many years ago from someone he used to work with. Buying scrap gold, I've heard so many ridiculous claims and stories (my favorite is when they say that all their plated jewelry is solid 24K), so I know people lie, but this guy struck me as sincere. But what really speaks volumes is that he refused my offer, which, if these had been the fakes, would've made him a very hefty profit. People with fake stuff, when they know they can pass it off, will jump at the chance. With that said, he could've been wrong about the date. Perhaps he had some from the last year before the 1929 minting, and didn't realize that 1929 was the last year. Thats what I like to think.

andial | 09-14-2009 07:26 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? I think the best thing to do is on the next big Gold run up switch your 1 ounce bullion coins to MS 60 to 64 st. gaudens or liberties. (if they rally less than the bullion) Then ride the numi rally witch is sure to follow the Bullion rally. jmho

SirSilverOzzyyzzO | 09-14-2009 07:32 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Quote:
Originally Posted by andial (Post 1920823) I think the best thing to do is on the next big Gold run up switch your 1 ounce bullion coins to MS 60 to 64 st. gaudens or liberties. (if they rally less than the bullion) Then ride the numi rally witch is sure to follow the Bullion rally. jmho
Not a bad plan, but risky. My palms got sweaty just thinking about it.

chinmusic | 09-14-2009 10:15 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Just to add my .02 cents to this discussion. When dealing with numis it is extremely important to know a lot about a very specialized niche. You are going up against people who love numismatics and spend year after year of their lives examining coins, searching for coins and negotiating deals over coins. To make it even more daunting, it is an industry that has more than its fair share of less than honorable people in it. In short, research, research, research. The info is out there to make pretty well informed buying choices. In many ways it is like the stock market. Due diligence is rewarded. If it seems overwhelming then go to a reputable dealer, preferably one of the very few experts in the coin series that you are interested in. Like stock brokers, the majority of dealers make their living through the buying and selling premiums that occur with turnover of product. The true expert dealers know the market for their specialty area. You will pay about a 15% premium for this expertise. Think of it as insurance. Lastly, this should be a long term investment, 5 years minimum. The numismatic market is like any other. it goes through hot periods and cold periods. Hell, different coin series have bull markets versus other series of coins. In my opinion there is definitely the potential for huge upside to numismatics above and beyond the metal content. Make well informed choices and you will be rewarded, choose poorly and the premiums you paid at purchase might never be recaptured.

hernancortes | 10-02-2009 10:23 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? I had to revisit this thread for Skeptic because I just saw that '08 ASE's are fetching $70 (were $80) at apmex. That's quite a bit higher than other common ASEs with even lower mintages. I really don't know why?? The semi-keys are the '94, '93, '95-P, at about half the mintage of the '08. Maybe the "final year" thesis has something to it?

HistoryStudent | 10-03-2009 12:16 AM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Quote:
Originally Posted by hernancortes (Post 1952495) I had to revisit this thread for Skeptic because I just saw that '08 ASE's are fetching $70 (were $80) at apmex. That's quite a bit higher than other common ASEs with even lower mintages. I really don't know why?? The semi-keys are the '94, '93, '95-P, at about half the mintage of the '08. Maybe the "final year" thesis has something to it?
TOO SMART - you old PROPHET! :111::111:

helopilot | 10-04-2009 11:06 AM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Holding semi-numismatic-I started buying AGE proof sets in '99 just because I liked them and knew that because of gold content would not depreciate. The value of these proof sets has increased more than the increase of bullion. In some cases they have doubled. I don't know how this compares to true numis values but I'm satisfied with the value. I still collect them but as 2009 looks like a bust for proof coins I'm stymied. I would only sell them after I had sold Ag and Au bullion in shtf situation. If you plan on buying true numismatics, invest in time, books, education, micrometer and scale. Talk to the long time collectors. It is an enjoyable and rewarding past time and you meet many interesting people along the way

andial | 10-04-2009 01:36 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Wow! Early B.U. SAE's (1989,1990,1991) go for 5.99 over spot at APMEX. SWEET!

HistoryStudent | 10-04-2009 03:29 PM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Gold & Silver will go up as the ultimate currencies they are in OPPOSITION to the 20% to 100% money printed/digitalized every year. Maybe like the 1964 to 1980 - a 17 year bull (commodity) market of some 25 times; I.E. from $35 to $875 for a MOMENT in time = 25 TIMES. Silver ran from $1.29 1964 to $55.00 in 1980 = almost 43 times. NUMISMATICS will take (whatever) that bullion percentage is; and then go up maybe 5 times more like they did in 1989. This is because they are rare and authenticated by the top two or three SLABBERS. IF IF IF YOU: Devote hundreds of hours to the HOBBY and I'd bet :ok: you'll be rewared for your efforts.

Master_Ho | 10-05-2009 12:33 AM
Re: When PMs go crazy, how can numi premiums still sustain? Quote:
Originally Posted by HistoryStudent (Post 1954307) Gold & Silver will go up as the ultimate currencies they are in OPPOSITION to the 20% to 100% money printed/digitalized every year. Maybe like the 1964 to 1980 - a 17 year bull (commodity) market of some 25 times; I.E. from $35 to $875 for a MOMENT in time = 25 TIMES. Silver ran from $1.29 1964 to $55.00 in 1980 = almost 43 times. NUMISMATICS will take (whatever) that bullion percentage is; and then go up maybe 5 times more like they did in 1989. This is because they are rare and authenticated by the top two or three SLABBERS. IF IF IF YOU: Devote hundreds of hours to the HOBBY and I'd bet :ok: you'll be rewared for your efforts.
Exactly............. I do not give a flying you-know-what about what groups like the WSJ say - or CNBC.............. Did they call the last crash?? NO! I DID - in Nov. 2005 and told hundreds!!! I do not give a flying you-know-what about what gold did not achevive in the last 15-20 years.........people who go down that road merely show me they do not undersand PM cycles, let alone that cash is a commodities and the only REAL money is gold.......... History - you and I (and we can add TomD, Jason, Riverrat and a few other voices) are right - mainly cause we lived thru this before and we have STUDIED both gold, and our hobby of numismatic (and semi-numismatic) coins. A lot of these young Turks would do better to shutup and listen to their elders who HAVE THE EXPERIENCE......too many here get their financial background from movies like Mad Max! Thats fine! No really!!! More for us!!! :biggrin:

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