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- - Rare Coins in a recession or deflationary depression. (http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=206278)

Goald | 11-29-2007 05:25 PM
Rare Coins in a recession or deflationary depression. My question is, are there any examples that show how rare coins fare in a deflation? Rare coins I know is general but specifically I'm refering to high PM content, 90%+, and low mintages and or rare grades. I like modern China coins that some have rubbished here for so many reasons. Some have very low mintages (<5000), China has 1.3 billion people that can own coins and that shall increase exponentially as people become increasingly wealthy over the next 50 years and they know how to save better than people in the West and seem to have a natural affinity for PM's. Plus the coins are aesthetically beautiful. My brain tells me that in such a scenario, with cash being most sought after, the price of pretty much everything falls including the PM's so rare coins are not as desirable because there are fewer collectors. Another part of me feels that in such a scenario, PM's get more attention as they are, ultimately, a store of wealth to survive the extreme times and even if we have such a period, the PM bull will march on when it is ready on to highs and it is here that some rare coins could do very well indeed. I guess it is all about what sort of time period you hold them for before selling. Hope I'm not rambling too much, but really, I'd like to hear your thoughts on this.

CyberGold | 11-29-2007 09:36 PM
Re: Rare Coins in a recession or deflationary depression. 10 to 20 years

hugo_danner | 11-29-2007 11:27 PM
Re: Rare Coins in a recession or deflationary depression. PM's will go down in deflation, but will hold their value better than most things. I would imagine in an economic downturn, fewer people have much spare cash, so a rare coin probably won't fare as well (compared to it's value before a crash). It's got to be liquid if you want to sell it--which you probably won't be able to do if the price is incredibly high. For the most part, I only buy for metal content and most of my silver is of the 90% pre-1964 variety for that reason.

thrifty_bob | 11-29-2007 11:33 PM
Re: Rare Coins in a recession or deflationary depression. I agree with hugo. Buy the stuff near spot and it will always be worth at least that.

Master_Ho | 11-29-2007 11:39 PM
Re: Rare Coins in a recession or deflationary depression. Quote:
Originally Posted by hugo_danner (Post 852138) PM's will go down in deflation, but will hold their value better than most things. I would imagine in an economic downturn, fewer people have much spare cash, so a rare coin probably won't fare as well (compared to it's value before a crash). It's got to be liquid if you want to sell it--which you probably won't be able to do if the price is incredibly high. For the most part, I only buy for metal content and most of my silver is of the 90% pre-1964 variety for that reason.
I DO have semi-numismatic coins - but I bought only a little over bullion and as of right now, I boguht ALL for less than today's price of gold. If my coins ONLY get bullion price, I am still ahead! And some of my coins have gone up BETTER than bullion. Tho some have disputed the following - Ponce amongst them, but he researched it and said it was right - this is all I have on the topic. I am still trying to get my contacts to ask Dr Farber about this.........so take it for what its worth..........>> The Things That Gained The Most In The 1974-1980 Period<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> From Marc Faber's book 'Tomorrow's Gold', which he calls his <o:p></o:p> "cheat sheet for the next ten years.", <o:p></o:p> 1974-80 was a period that is highly reminiscent of today.<o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> Back then, oil topped the list, rising 1,866% in price in that period of time. The next biggest winner was gold, up 1,458% in price, followed by U.S coins (1,053%), silver (739%), Chinese ceramics (607%), diamonds, farm land, art, followed by housing (164%), stocks (81%), bonds (89%), all of which sounds pretty good until you note that Mr. Sjuggerud includes the fact that inflation (as measured by the CPI) was up 110% in those six years.

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